OK, maybe a little premature and sensationalist. But after hearing what I heard last evening, it may not be far from the truth based on demographic trends.

I had the pleasure of attending an event with noted Demographer and Futurist, Ken Gronbach, as keynote speaker. It really was fascinating and a bit frightening. The two hours really flew by! I was ill-prepared and didn't bring a notebook, so I scribbled notes on a couple sheets of paper as he went on. As a result, they aren't necessarily in order although I tried to group them as best as I could remember. Based on the numbers he uses, and how those numbers effect trends, there may be a lot of merit to what he has to say especially when he's not the only one coming to these conclusions.

I've heard a number of speakers address how Generation Y is different and how to adapt to connect with them. This was the first I've seen why it's so important that we do so.

Anyway, I digress.


Intro
Generation-X is 11% smaller than the Boomer Generation. From the highest peak of the Boomers to the lowest valley of Gen-X is a 25% drop in numbers. Even in a vacuum, 11% fewer people earning, spending and paying taxes is going to have a noticeably negative effect.

Gen-Y is a larger segment of the population than the Boomers. The current unemployment rate for Gen-Y is 50%. Since the Boomers are unable to retire because of the decreased equity in their homes and 401(k)’s, many aren’t able to find jobs. There will be a spike in small businesses as they go out on their own after not being able to find jobs. Also, once the Boomers can afford to retire and Gen-X moves up the corporate ladder, Gen-Y will fill in behind them and suddenly have money to spend. They will have a larger, positive effect on the country’s economy than any preceding generation.

Latinos & African-Americans
Latinos have assimilated to the American culture faster than any previous immigrant group; including the Irish, Italians and Germans. They have effectively filled in that Gen-X gap between Gen-Y and the Boomers and will be instrumental in supporting either end of the spectrum (the younger and the older) via their taxes so we’d better learn to accept them and be grateful they’re here. Their offspring are also an increasingly upwardly mobile segment.
The African-American segment of the population is also upwardly mobile. Like him or not, Obama has had a tremendous positive effect on the mindset.

China
China’s one child policy over the past 31 years has left a gap of 400,000,000 people that otherwise would have been there earning, producing and paying taxes (the government officially boasts of that number). Since the “preferred” one child is male, 30,000,000 Chinese males have no prospect or marrying a Chinese female (and that is also the number the Chinese government uses). There will be no way for the younger generation to support the aging population. There will not be enough younger employees to fill the empty manufacturing positions, effectively increasing the cost of manufacturing and taking them out of the global manufacturing game.

Family is the basis of social security in China. The previous generations take care of the older ones. There is no formal social security in China. The model pyramid has been inverted with 4 grandparents at the top, two parents and one child. Being elderly will become very difficult in China. Children of these recent generations will have no brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, cousins, nieces or nephews.

The U.S. GDP is about $15 trillion. China $5 trillion. Germany $5 trillion. Japan $3 trillion. The U.S. has a larger GDP than our next 3 competitors combined. China produces but can’t consume since their 800,000,000 work force isn’t paid enough to effectively do so. The only way for them to increase their GDP is to get the U.S. to consume more. What are the chances that China is going to call their loans to the U.S.? We’re their largest customer.

The 400,000,000 decrease in live births has been beneficial in the short term for China. They haven’t had to feed, clothe, educate or house the equivalent population of the U.S. and Mexico combined. They’ve also been able to drastically decrease their carbon footprint. The other side of that, there are 400,000,000 fewer consumers, wage earners and tax-payers in the pipeline. The ramification of this will be realized in the next 20-30 years and could be catastrophic, economically and environmentally.

The value of the Yuan is kept artificially low by the Chinese government, they print more to keep the value down. If it were to fluctuate on the market like the other world currencies, it would double in value thus doubling the cost of Chinese made products. There is a lot of pressure on them to allow Yuan to be adjusted accordingly. It will increase in due time.

Since China produces so much and consumes very little of it, transportation is a critical part of the equation. Increased energy prices will increase the cost of their goods. Low price is their single largest advantage. They may have to lower the quality to keep the prices in check. There may very well be grounds for concern of Chinese products in our food supply.

By 2016, that 800,000,000 work force will begin shrinking. Less labor will result in higher compensation. Workers will no longer be expendable. Tensions will rise.

In their rush for economic prominence, they’ve polluted their water supply. They have a shortage of potable water and women. Russia has both. Should they be concerned?

The U.S. has 5% of the world’s population but produces 25% of the world economy. Both of those numbers will increase as the best and brightest flee Europe, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia for the Americas to escape turmoil and for economic reasons.

India
India doesn’t have a one-child policy per se, but have strongly incentivized just that. Expect to see a similar, if only slightly less drastic than China, effect in the coming years. The India’s caste system has created an even larger gap between the have’s and have-not’s. The have-not’s are on the cusp of a population boom.

Former Soviet Union
The countries of the former Soviet Union are in a net death situation. More are dying than are being born. 50% of their males do not (and will not) make it past age 60.

Western Europe
50% of all males 19 and under in Western Europe are Muslim and are expected to become the majority within the next decade. Muslim ideals and the Western lifestyle enjoyed by so many in Western Europe are not compatible. Women are viewed as appliances. Everything points towards a large spike in migration to the America’s (North, Central and South).

What it all means
Uprisings are started by young, unemployed males +/- 19 years of age. There will be a drastic increase in the number of that very demographic world-wide in the near future. The Middle East will continue to be a tinder box.

Energy
Manufacturing will come back to the Americas. There will also be a large influx of immigrants. There will be an increased need for energy, Natural Gas will likely be source since those are the largest reserves. We’re using up their oil reserves first. Green energy sources will follow as the technology becomes more affordable and gas and oil prices inevitably increase.

Housing Market in the U.S.
In 2007, we had $14 trillion in equity in our homes. Today we have $7 trillion. This has halted the retirement of Boomers since their wealth was in their homes and crippled the economy of the southern retirement states. In ’09 we came to the realization that we had allowed 9 million loans to go bad, many of which should never been made in the first place.

The big banks bought the loans with bailout money for 70 cents on the dollar. The Fed guaranteed the loan up to 80% of the original value. The system made it far more profitable for the banks for foreclose on the properties and collect that “insurance” from the government. His example was they would buy a $700,000 mortgage for a house for $490,000. Rather than work with the mortgagee, they'd allow the property to be foreclosed upon and collect $560,000.

That inventory of foreclosed properties is being used up and should be cleared within the next 2-3 years. Once this occurs, the housing market should explode given the pent up demand. Boomers can sell and move south, Gen-X buys the Boomer’s houses, Gen-Y buys the Gen-Xer’s houses and the remaining Boomer’s houses and more houses need to be built to accommodate the largest generation. Those in the construction and related trades who have survived the downturn will prosper. The southern retirement state real estate market will come back with a vengeance.

Gen Y Demographics
Gen Y born between ’85-’04, now range in age from 8-27, peaked in 1990 with 4.2 million births. Larger than the Boomer generation by 1 million and will easily rival the Boomers in influence and consumption. This large Y group (79.5 million) following a small X group (69.5) will result in an employer’s market for the first time in 20 years. There will be more workers than available positions. This is exactly the opposite of the Xer’s following the Boomers, which was an employee’s market. For every 10 positions available, there were 8 Gen X applicants. Employers had to pay more and work harder to fill the positions which sucked in entry-level and immigrant workers who had to fill the void left by the Xers and forced manufacturing offshore.

Employers will be able to pick and choose the best and the brightest applicants, which will create an interesting environment with 3 very different generation under the same roof, all requiring different management styles.

Gen Y will text each other during meetings. Email and telephone calls are foreign to them. They’ve never learned to read or write cursive. “Quarter after the hour” doesn’t mean anything to them because they don’t even know what clockwise means. They don’t own or wear watches, they use their smart phone for everything. What’s deemed acceptable appearance is drastically different from Gen Y to the Boomers. Piercings and tattoos are assumed.

Gen Y doesn’t see race, color or ethnic origin. It just doesn’t enter their minds. Inter-racial dating and marriage is common. They demand transparency and have the ability to uncover anything that has been hidden.

Boomers will begin to retire by the millions as the housing market recovers. Gen X, now 28-47, doesn’t have the critical mass to satisfy the labor demand or fill that void. Employers will be forced to hire more Gen Y employees and accelerate their advancement into the mid- and upper-level positions Gen X can’t fill. The very real possibility exists that Gen Yers will be managing Boomers. There will be a huge “generation gap” and they will need to be trained to deal with those age-related conflicts.

Your future customers are going to look and be significantly different than the previous ones so you better figure out how you’re going to capture them. They’re educated, plugged-in, educate themselves prior to purchase and want choices. Wal-Mart will need to change their way of doing business or Gen-Y will effectively make them obsolete. Those changes will drastically reduce buying power (more products spread out over more suppliers = lower volume). Since studies show a precipitous drop in spending age 50, Wal-Mart’s model for the Boomers and older Gen-Xers just isn’t sustainable.

We had better learn how to accept them, work with and/or for them and market to them since they will be the most influential generation to date. Ignore them at your own peril.

Whoever becomes President in 2016 will ride an unprecedented wave.

__________________

1980 300TD-China Blue/Blue MBTex-2nd Owner, 107K (Alt Blau) OBK #15
'06 Chevy Tahoe Z71 (for the wife & 4 kids, current mule) '03 Honda Odyssey (son #1's ride, reluctantly) '99 GMC Suburban (255K+ miles, semi-retired mule) 21' SeaRay Seville (summer escape pod)

No mention of Islam?
I read they blow away the growth rate for all.

Clearly there's some controversy about the statistic of Muslim populations in Western Europe.

The Myth Of The Muslim Tide | loonwatch.com

2. Immigrants from Muslim countries are going to swamp us
People look at the huge families of many new Muslim immigrants and imagine them multiplying at exponential rates. But this is a bit of an illusion – -as are many of the figures suggesting that Muslim immigrants have fertility rates higher than in their homelands. This is because most new immigrants have most of their children in the years immediately after their arrival. The way we calculate Total Fertility Rate – - the measure of average family size – - is by taking the total number of births a woman has had and extrapolating it across her fertile life. As a result, immigrants appear to have more children than they really do. In reality, the family sizes of Muslim immigrant groups are converging fast with those of average Westerners – - faster, it seems, than either Jewish or Catholic immigrants did in their time. Muslims in France and Germany are now having only 2.2 children per family, barely above the national average. And while Pakistani immigrants in Britain have 3.5 children each, their British-born daughers have only 2.5. Across Europe, the difference between the Muslim and non-Muslim fertility rate has fallen from 0.7 to 0.4, and is headed toward a continent-wide convergence.

Gen Y checking in here,

"Gen Y will text each other during meetings. Email and telephone calls are foreign to them. They’ve never learned to read or write cursive. “Quarter after the hour” doesn’t mean anything to them because they don’t even know what clockwise means. They don’t own or wear watches, they use their smart phone for everything. What’s deemed acceptable appearance is drastically different from Gen Y to the Boomers. Piercings and tattoos are assumed."

None of this is true except perhaps among HS dropouts

__________________
TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

Just wait until they legalize weed, then there will be a need for a seed supplier...

__________________
On some nights I still believe that a car with the fuel gauge on empty can run about fifty more miles if you have the right music very loud on the radio. - HST

1983 300SD - 305000
1984 Toyota Landcruiser - 190000
1994 GMC Jimmy - 203000

https://media.giphy.com/media/X3nnss8PAj5aU/giphy.gif

Which campus are you on again, BYU, Liberty U.?

__________________
You're a daisy if you do.
__________________________________
84 Euro 240D 4spd. 220.5k sold
04 Honda Element AWD
1985 F150 XLT 4x4, 351W with 270k miles, hay hauler
1997 Suzuki Sidekick 4x4
1993 Toyota 4wd Pickup 226K and counting

The people who text during meetings will simply be fired for underperformance. If the company fails because of slacking management, then the company fails (or it should...nevermind Obama...) under my watch at least, I can't stand that sort of thing. Email is pretty much the standard means of communication in any large environment (like a university), and countless hours are spent by some on the phone. Whoever wrote the quote is immensely out of touch. We all learned to write cursive whether we liked it or not. I don't know about grade school kids these days, but I sure learned how. "Quarter past the hour" pertains to a quarter of an hour, i.e. 25% of 60, or 15 minutes. You don't need a watch for that...and some of us still wear watches as trendy accessories anyways (I am asking one for my bday).

All I hear from the original quote is "harumph, harumph, kids these days!". Meanwhile, gen-Yers are becoming more educated and competitive than ever, at least a subsection of us (I humbly put myself in that category) earning graduate degrees and working our butts off at the same time. I've never seen less than 70 hours of work (schoolwork and employment combined) since I was 14.

tl;dr my rage at being lumped in with underperforming idiots.

__________________
TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

You can't help what generation you are born into.

__________________
Jim

But I can work above them and fire them in a few years

__________________
TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

Some of this is true, at least amongst the people I work with.


I am Gen Y, and we do quite a bit of messaging on our phones during meetings. Email is still the preferred method of communication where I work, but we also do quite a bit of texting when a quick response is needed. I can read and write cursive, as can all the Gen-Yers I work with. Cannot speak for people I work with, but I know what quarter after the hour is. I know CW and CCW, and have a few watches. I do not wear one on a daily basis - its too bulky and gets in the way most of the time.

Quite a few of the boomers I work with have Tatoos and piercings, though they choose to keep them covered up. Younger groups tend to keep them covered up, but its not uncommon to see a few while eating lunch.

__________________
-Justin

91 560 SEC AMG - other dogs dd
01 Honda S2000 - dogs dd
07 MB ML320 CDI - dd
16 Lexus IS250 - wifes dd

it's automatic.

I think that guy's wrong in much of what he projects.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Too many unknowns to generalise. Even on much shorter time frames. Even two to five years ahead is hard enough and problamatic to forcast.

Somehow this guy is trying to forcast on things based on somewhat of a current status quo partially remaining. The only thing he may be accurate about but does not reflect upon it properly. The population of the world perhaps is too large and may remain that way for the forseeable future. He is right about the average age getting older though as it currently already is. How this will all factor in is very unknown other than suspicions.

I think the issue is that there is a break within the Gen Y Category. The ones born in the 80s (Like us) at least have a recollection of the world before cell phones and internet took over. The one's born in the 90s have always had these devices at their disposal and a world without them is a completely foreign concept. I have seen enough Gen Y texting at work to throw anyone into a fit of rage. Management can try to control it but these kids are almost always texting when management isn't around so catching them in the act can be tricky.

__________________
1982 300GD Carmine Red (DB3535) Cabriolet Parting Out
1990 300SEL Smoke Silver (Parting out)
1991 350SDL Blackberry Metallic (481)

"The thing is Bob, its not that I'm lazy...its that I just don't care."

Good point. Kind of silly to lump in people born in the late 80s with kids who grow up with iphones and facebook.

__________________
1985 CA 300D Turbo , 213K mi

Only time will tell. I guess we'll see if he was right or wrong 5-10-15 years down the road.

I agree with the comments about the generation ranges, although he didn't set those ranges. There's a big difference between those on the leading edge and the trailing edge. Plus there are always the exceptions to the "standard."

__________________

1980 300TD-China Blue/Blue MBTex-2nd Owner, 107K (Alt Blau) OBK #15
'06 Chevy Tahoe Z71 (for the wife & 4 kids, current mule) '03 Honda Odyssey (son #1's ride, reluctantly) '99 GMC Suburban (255K+ miles, semi-retired mule) 21' SeaRay Seville (summer escape pod)