"Destined for War: Can America and China avoid Thucydides Trap?" by Graham Allison.

Every American should read this book, and watch Allison whose interviews are on Youtube.

Pretty much everything else people in this country are blathering about, like health care, lgbt rights, the environment etc... are irelevent in comparison.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Hopefully common sense will prevail. At the same time the American military planners may attempt to go for it all. This would be unfortunate As their long range plans where based in the early to mid 1990s. When Russia was pretty much down and out and not expected to recover. Russia has done better than just recover from a military perspective.

Both sides know no one would benefit, but if they ever threaten our shores I hope we retaliate. Bombard them with Nike shoes by the tons, and more.

Irellivent. Of the previous sixteen times in history when both sides knew neither would benefit they still fell into the trap twelve times. With the moron we have in the white house now it's hardly likely there is the intellectual gravitas to have a clue what is happening as it all goes to hell in a hand basket.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

The last sixteen times was before Twitter. He will personally bombard them with tweets.

Almost funny.

Actually the unhinged unpredictability of Trump might be the only thing the US has going for it right now. Nothing other than killing Un will stop him and for the life of me I don't understand why the hell the US hasn't "droned" him already. The window of opportunity is closing fast and once he has the ability to drop a Nuke on LA and SF the US is out of options.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

China would react badly to US destruction of PRK. China and S Korea would be faced with a huge mess of refugees and factional partisan warlord struggling over the carcass of a beheaded PRK. And China would prefer to have a dependent nutcase with nukes than an independent democracy on its border.

The US is stuck with having China keep some sort of control over Un. China usually takes a long view as compared to the USA. We see a problem and try to kill it. China sees a problem and tries to manipulate it.

It's a conundrum.

True. But there's little chance of the PRK becoming a democracy even withouth Un. A heavy strike against Un himself plus all their rocketry facilities ( and I do mean heavy, not a few cruise missiles for show as in Syria) would remove the nutjob and the nations capability to directly threaten the US or Japan. It would present the chinese with a fait accompli and they can do what they will but the threat will have been removed.

To their advantage. Which is bad for us. And will become decidedly worse as this whackjob is allowed to continue his build up.

Indeed. Thanks to Clinton, Bush and Obama. Each allowing the problem to worsen under their watch until we now have an untenable situation which is likely to go big time bad in short order.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Reading through all this should we short WMT if/when we attack N Korea?

__________________
Jim

All this issue with north Korea just to get America out of it's hair. Could have been resolved years ago otherwise very easily.

Now north Korea can have a yearly date where they practice shooting missiles at America. About on par with Americas yearly invasion practice of north Korea. Perhaps doing both in the same time frame each year might prove interesting.

American foreign policy with North Korea was faulty and remained so to say the least. The north and south wanted a peace treaty years ago. America went to great lengths to prevent it. Still do. At this time I think even south Korea is tired of it.

I also think in the next year or two America will totally lose the desire to seriously threaten them every year with invasion. Even Russia and China have basically told the Americans to get their act straightened out.

Americas recient illegal military presence in the Philippines. Complete with a mercenary ISIL army is also too close to China. The Philippine prime minister wants both of them gone. What is going on there is illegal in the extreme.

You cannot whitewash it anymore. I could be wrong about this but who else would pay the freight of the ISIL in the Philippines? Plus Americas refusing to sell weapons to the legal government

America either directly or through a third party. Has probably supplied the money to put the ISIL in there and financially support them. The principal ISIL group there is from the middle east.

They perhaps would also have tried it in north Korea other than their standing army is too strong. It is starting to look like paid mercenary groups are Americas weapon of choice. To get around the illegalities of their foreign policies. Russia has warned America that they cannot control the eventual outcomes other than creating extreme disruptions.

What was totally terrifying to me is Hillary indicated she would like to have seriously tried this approach with Russia. Actually it was already started by her and her cohorts but also kept from the American public. Trump may have problems. Still I do not think he wants to incite a real serious response from Russia. Plus the America military would not act without his support I hope.

He may not be the brightest light bulb. Yet I cannot see him supporting anything like this. Although he has to be supporting the Philippine situation since it only has erupted since he was elected. Or the elected government does not have the control the general public credit it with. Their may instead be many real issues between different power establishments within government.

Normally Barry, I find you posts rather worthwhile but I must confess that after reading, and re-reading this one I have to ask what the hell are you going on about?

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Why does isil have interest there?

__________________
Jim

Islamonutjobs been causing trouble there since 1888.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

His "unhinged unpredictability" might be the only thing we have going for us?
You may want to look up how we stand world wide in the size of our economy, and how we stand with our military strength.

Our economy is No 2 behind China's and our military is crippled by our inability to take meaningful casualties.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S