Economy grows 7.2% best growth since '84 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

#1 10-30-2003, 09:35 AM

Well?

Economy Grows at Fastest Pace Since 1984

Oct 30, 8:54 AM (ET)

By JEANNINE AVERSA

(AP) After posting a decline in September, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy grew at a scorching 7.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter in the strongest pace in nearly two decades. Consumers spent with abandon and businesses ramped up investment, compelling new evidence of an economic resurgence.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031030/D7UGHGD02.html
The rest here

G-Benz · #2 10-30-2003, 11:37 AM

How long are we to expect consumers to keep the economy afloat? Consumer debt has reached a record level, and eventually, bankrupticies and consumer debt settlements are going to take a chunk out of the profits...

Kuan · #3 10-30-2003, 02:53 PM

I like it. Good growth in all sectors and not bouyed by defense spending which remained constant. The worst 4Q we've had in the last three years has been +1.1 percent. Look forward to a good 4Q.

But like Ted says, hope employment follows.

TN-W124 Diesel · #4 10-31-2003, 07:06 AM

yes but it is some good news, I just hope the job market will turn around. I know the NAFTA sent alot of jobs to other countries..

Kuan · #5 10-31-2003, 08:54 AM

Job market will turn around, but only in certain sectors. Forget manufacturing. Here's an observation. Despite the increase in business spending on equipment and software, inventories still remain low. Is that optimism?

For one, remember the bruhaha over SUV's and the new tax law? Environmental groups were up in arms saying that it only furthers our dependence on fossil fuels. Congress the tax deduction for business equipment from 17.5k in '96 to 25k in '03. The President plans to take the deduction to 75k.

The big surprise from yesterday is the increase in auto sales. Is this directly related to the new tax law? Who knows, the feds don't break out the category. It's all business equipment and software.

Low inventories used to hint at cautious behaviour toward the economy. But I don't think inventories are low because companies are unwilling to commit, I think they're low because companies are becoming more efficient in managing their supply chains. Here's a job opportunity. Purchasing! Despite manufacturing job losses, companies are spending money hiring good purchasing personnel who understand supply chain management. They've found that proper JIT purchasing saves time and money. The figures vary, but I've heard figures as high as 10% cost savings for smaller firms. Check it out, see if I'm right.

Good luck

Botnst · #6 10-31-2003, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kuan
Low inventories used to hint at cautious behaviour toward the economy. But I don't think inventories are low because companies are unwilling to commit, I think they're low because companies are becoming more efficient in managing their supply chains. Here's a job opportunity. Purchasing! Despite manufacturing job losses, companies are spending money hiring good purchasing personnel who understand supply chain management. They've found that proper JIT purchasing saves time and money. The figures vary, but I've heard figures as high as 10% cost savings for smaller firms. Check it out, see if I'm right.

Good luck

Kuan, isn't that what Wallmart (hiss, boo, raspberry!) did (and continues to refine) to out-compete the planet?

Want to make money--devise a system that will beat Wallmart. Bwah-hahaha! Cry havoc! Unleash the dogs of war!

Lebenz · #7 10-31-2003, 10:50 AM

The trend of growth is obvious around here. Between the last month and last 3 months there has been a *huge* increase in businesses spending, at least for my customers in various elements of the service industry. Meanwhile Boeing (not one of my customers :p ), is still not doing much.

Aside: One of the local back-handed witticisms was that they were going to start making aircraft wings for Airbus as soon as Boeing moves out of Renton.

Cap'n Carageous · #8 10-31-2003, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Botnst
Kuan, isn't that what Wallmart (hiss, boo, raspberry!) did (and continues to refine) to out-compete the planet?

Walmart calls it "through the register", they never really owned it until it sold. Whatever the pet name it's VMI. Vendor Managed Inventory. Imagine that you put in an order for 500'000 toasters and the parts come from China. The factory is in Mexico. You order the components from the different vendors but you have them sent to a consolidation center. Your order 4 hours of supply for your factory and it is delivered from the consolidation center to the factory. Once it reaches the factory you pay for what is on that truck, build those toasters and use up the parts. The other 4 hour "kit" of material is still at the consolidation center and still belongs to the vendor that supplied it. You just saved a ton of money by not buying the entire days inventory (or week or month's) at one time. Added benefit is if that toaster immediately goes out of style you aren't stuck with parts for 400,000 more toasters. (obsolete inventory)

Botnst · #9 10-31-2003, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SP0CK
....They are going to simply lower everyone elses standard of living but taking such low salaries. It should be the other way around, let's RAISE the bar, not go back to pre-1950! Anyone?

I've got an idea: why don't we all go shop at a store other than at Wallmart and buy the most expensive item rather than the cheapest.

Oh-oh, how about this: We'll put a small surcharge on every item sold that was purchased overseas (a tariff) and give the proceeds to employees who produce the same product at a higher price.

Or how about this: we'll increase tariffs on those items which compete with our manufacturing, protecting local jobs and fattening the revenues to government so government can offer worthy programs like job retraining or childcare.

Lets not innovate, lets legislate.

Botnst

Zeitgeist · #10 10-31-2003, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Lets not innovate, lets legislate

Sure Botnst, we're already following your 'free-market' innovations in trade policy, and what has that gotten us?

You free marketeers can blindly follow your ridiculously short-sighted theory right over the cliffs of economic collapse like good little lemmings, but puleez leave the rest of us out of your experiment. Both of the major political parties have bought into this disaster, but how long do you realistically think this little charade can go on before folks catch on? How long can consumer debt continue to finance the ongoing 'hollowing out' of our textile, manufacturing and yes, even our service sectors?

Exactly how are the employment figures going to rise? Where are the millions of unemployed to work these days? The tech sector? Whoops! gone to India and Pakistan.

Hey, I know, the prison industrial complex is considered to be a field of unlimited growth....there's gold in them thar miseries.

And all the while we taxpayers continue to finance imperial escapades abroad...what a cruel hoax. Our boy king fiddles while his Roam-ing burns through the budget.

Cynicism is indeed growing at a scorching rate these days...

Botnst · #11 10-31-2003, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SP0CK
- Botnst

Tell that to the 14mil who are going to lose their jobs.

Oh-Oh, how about this! We go tell them to all go "innovate!" Brilliant idea Botnst! There's a reason for government involvement, especially when corporations get too greedy and "innovative." Again, your solution is??

Oh, my solution is simple-minded: Let the market drive the economy.

I have never heard of any instance in which a government ever drove an economy anywhere but to ruin.

Botnst

Botnst · #12 10-31-2003, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Zeitgeist
Sure Botnst, we're already following your 'free-market' innovations in trade policy, and what has that gotten us?

Exactly how are the employment figures going to rise? Where are the millions of unemployed to work these days? The tech sector? Whoops! gone to India and Pakistan.

...Our boy king fiddles while his Roam-ing burns through the budget.
...

Zeitgeist is back, Welcome! Dude, where ya been, marching for the proletariat?

Free markets have gotten the most individual freeedom that the planet has ever seen. Except for a few feudal societies, free markets have eliminated chattel slavery. In comparison to that, no centralized government has accomplished much more than widespread misery and enslavement.

Darned right, "gone to India..", and a good thing, too! That's what we freemarketeers call, "free enterprise". Product gets expensive and somebody innovates. You damned-fool americans want all your high wages and social services, hey, we'll compete with our low overhead. In time, the Indians will demand more benefits and social service so the trade will move, slowly, to Bangledesh. The people of Bangledesh and India will benefit and the people of the USA better get off their their tired-asses and get with the program. All you have to do is compare material prosperity between the era of free market capitalism and any other period in history: which has shown the greatest advance?

Don't you think that "Boy-king" is a bit much? The difference between a term-limited execuive and divine right rulers is pretty big.

Zeitgeist · #13 11-01-2003, 12:13 AM

Botnst, you should know by now that I'm a big picture thinker--where's this all leading us? What's the end product of these policies and agendas? That sort of stuff...

Bottom line: is the continual hollowing out of our economy sustainable? And yes, I do think boy-king is perfectly relevant--Sen. Prescott Bush --> Pres. G HW Bush --> Pres.(?)G W Bush --> Gov. Jeb Bush...d'ya see where I'm going with this?

Quote:

no centralized government has accomplished much more than widespread misery and enslavement.

What the hell are you talking about...?

Quote:

All you have to do is compare material prosperity between the era of free market capitalism and any other period in history: which has shown the greatest advance?

As a student of history, even you know this is an apples-to-orangutans comparison...not worthy of discussion. You and I both know that the societies/economies of the post-industrial revolution era cannot be realistically compared to previous eras....and YOU of all people should know that free market capitalism hasn't been actually practised for much if any of this period....pfffft

BTW: This is the first free weekend I've had in two weeks. I've had an unbelievable workload...but now I'm back, ready to spread my Leftist gibberish!

blackmercedes · #14 11-01-2003, 12:14 AM

Free market or competitive marketplace? My preference is the latter.

Think about competition. How does it work? It requires rules and a playing field for it to thrive. The true free market reaches consolidation and a state of monopoly, which is terrific for the guy that owns the business, but bad for most everyone.

Does anyone think that football, hockey, etc. are not competitive? You bet they are! And they have rule books to make sure that it remains that way. The same thing applies to business.

We use government to write the play book. The rules are shaped to encourage and foster real competition. The name of the game is to create an environment where business thrives, and business also serves the needs of the citizenry.

It is possible to have GDP growth that benefits a minority of the population. What we need is growth that benefits everyone.

Lebenz · #15 11-01-2003, 01:10 AM

Prof Z are you suggesting that capitalism will fail in the next 3 years or 300 years? I would hope it would evolve but wouldn’t doubt failure. It would fail if it couldn’t expand or was disrupted in a big way.

Accepting for the moment that the current trend of jobs going to other countries continues, and that slashes in the job market take place, and that in say 10 years everything that ~can~ be done outside of the USA or North America, or the Northern Hemisphere, or what ever scale you wish to use, is in fact done. Or worse, may God forbid that despite our best efforts, al Qaeda or some other group gets hold of not one, but a dozen nukes and “hollows out” the economy in the 12 biggest cities in the USA, plus another in DC...... Where are you going with the line of reason? Is it just a case of saying that capitalism’s failure is gonna happen?

One of Botnst’s points is that by employing workers of other countries, they will employ workers of yet other countries. And the economy will thereby grow. This process has been under way for hundreds of years.