OK Guys, I did this last year, I'm just trying to get an idea of investor sentiment. The question is where the DJIA will finish 2004. I am hoping with the positive markets in 2003 I will get more interest in this thread than last time with only 15 votes.

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Jason Priest
1999 E430
1995 E420 - retired
1986 420SEL - retired

The Super Bowl Indicator (AFC won) says down.

Presidential Election Year with an Incumbet Running Indicator says up.

Short term direction of the market? Who knows!

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Learn as though you will live forever.
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(Are there any modern ones?)

1998 E320 Blk\Blk
1995 BMW 530i (bad engine) sold
1989 BMW 535i sold after 170,000 fun miles
1996 Lincoln Town Car (6 passenger land barge, still smooth and quiet at 130,000 miles, make me an offer!)

Economy recovery signals positive market sentiments. Weak dollar policy suggests capital flight and weaker capital markets. Low inflation and a cap on interest rates suggests a buoyant bond market, at the expense of the stock market. The signals are so mixed. I say the stock market will end the year up slightly (maybe 3% to 5%).

The DOW will be down 20% by the end of 2004.
More significantly the housing bubble will bust at the end of 2004 or 2005. However, if the $ continues to go to lala land housing prices could increase with continued foreign buying but I doubt it.
Oil prices will continue to increase and Venezuala will have a new freedom loving government.
So buy oil, short house builders.

Gary

There will be a huge ag surplus this year, driving food prices lower, severely undercutting ag competition around the world.

All the election Bull$hit will accumulate.....


B

Oil production will decrease, consumption will increase, the dollar will reach 1.30-1.45 to the Euro, and the stock market will decline as the last manufacturing job leaves the US.

Gas will hit $3.00 or more per gallon by the end of the summer (remember, the "deregulators" are in the White House!).

Not a pretty picture.

Peter

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1972 220D ?? miles
1988 300E 200,012
1987 300D Turbo killed 9/25/07, 275,000 miles
1985 Volvo 740 GLE Turobodiesel 218,000
1972 280 SE 4.5 165, 000 - It runs!

Dow 36,000 -- Glassman redux

Does anyone know why silver prices have been steadily rising after stagnating for the last five years? What are the key drivers of the silver price cycles? Is silver a major component in electronic equipment, and thus is a leading indicator of manufacturer's confidence in future production?

Higher demand = Higher price


Anyone?

BUMP--still looking for an answer.

There's a dearth of silver linings for all the financial clouds?

Botnst

...thanks Mr. Big-Help. I've got a 100 oz. bar of silver that I'm dying to get rid of, but only at the right time.

1. The dollar's lost 30+% of its value over the last 18 months, and Greenspan's reflating as fast as he can. This is largely responsible for the similar runup in gold since 2001 - it's a store of value that no central banker can print more of on demand, unlike fiat currency. Silver's gotten some residual benefit from that sentiment.

2. Partly for the reasons above, partly because China's economy, and use of commodities, is rising at a rapid rate, commodities in general (esp. their price in $$) have risen over the last couple of years after a 20 year bear market - the CRB index is at its highest point since 1984.

3. More silver has been "consumed" (i.e. for industrial and ornamental use) than has been mined for the last 15 years or so. COMEX reserves are at very low levels.

Take a look at the historical ratio of gold to silver prices. While silver's made up ground in the last few months, it still is very low by historical standards. You're familiar with the Kitco site; also look at www.silverinstitute.org and www.silver-investor.com.

I'd keep your bar for a while; it'll be worth something someday.

Thanks for the insight. My dad bought the bar sometime back in the '70's at an insanely high price, when he was conned into thinking it could only go up up up--it didn't.

Bought it from the Hunt Bros?

B