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Originally Posted by ForcedInduction
Trucks keep rolling...for now
A small protest by truckers over fuel prices has limited impact as relatively few park their rigs. But companies see driver shortage ahead from rising diesel
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Transport Stocks Keep Moving
Despite Market Slowdown, Truckers and Railroads
Defy Conventional Wisdom by Posting Solid Gains
By DAVID GAFFEN
March 31, 2008; Page C6
If conventional wisdom -- and a mountain of economic data -- suggest that the U.S. economy is falling into, if not already in, a recession, why are the transportation stocks doing so well?
Investors often look at transportation stocks as a bellwether for the economic outlook. Transportation, in one way or another, is an integral part of many major industries; if manufacturers are seeing slack demand, they will ship fewer goods.
However, through Friday, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has gained 4% on the year, hardly an indication of a dire economic situation, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 7.9% and the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is off by 10%.
"It's a very interesting contradiction, because here we are in what most people think is going to be an extended economic slowdown and yet we have much better action, certainly among the truckers and railroads, than one would expect," said Kenneth Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical, an investment advisory in Yardley, Pa.
Since the stock market is a predictor -- not always correctly -- of growth, the rally in transportation stocks reflects expectations of a rebound in economic growth later in the year, just as it foreshadowed the decline in late 2007. The DJTA's closing high in 2007 was 5243.60 in late April, several months before the Dow's apex in mid-October.
What strikes some as odd about the rally is that transportation companies still face significant head winds, particularly from energy costs. The price of crude oil traded on the Nymex hit an intraday peak of $111 a barrel on March 13, and settled at $105.62 Friday. High fuel costs cut into the profitability of airlines and shippers such as
FedEx and
UPS.
But perhaps this has been factored in, both by shippers and investors: The American Trucking Associations' truck-tonnage index was up 3.5% in February from a year earlier, suggesting a rebound from economic weakness.
A number of companies in the sector have caught the eye of notable value investors, including
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Warren Buffett. Berkshire has been steadily buying shares of companies such as
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., and now holds an 18% stake in that railway.
"Usually when he buys, it leads a lot of the value guys to look at the stuff," says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management.
Write to David Gaffen at
David.Gaffen@wsj.com