Originally Posted by link
This will actually be an easy transition. Exotic parts aren't needed. First, it helps that the US Gov mostly has controlling interest in the auto makers. 2nd it helps that there is a huge design infrastructure already in place. Remember when MB was getting suckered by Chrysler? One of their stated reasons for “merging” was the Chrysler design facility that permits very short times for development to production. Of course, nearly everyone has learned that if you buy Chrysler in any way you get *****ed by them. It’s not so much different with Ford and GM. But that aside, they do know how to get a car to market in little time.
Speaking of getting *****ed by US car makers, the prime motivator for the US manufacturers has for the last 40 years been a largely garbage product at a low price point. Look at how the US manufacturers compete: At or near the bottom of the reliability bucket in nearly every category, and usually they aim to undersell Honda, Toyota, Nissan, et al.
Anyway, it will be easy for them to quickly develop small vehicles. The real question is if they will continue to compete at the bottom of the price/quality barrel. If they do, which I predict they will, then absent the mantra of “pay less, get trash, they will never recover from this transition, and within 5 years the big 3 will likely be the not so big 1, at best.
The good news is that this will actually help to get most of the current US made vehicles off the road. Absent a large manufacturer, the sub-contractors who actually make the vast majority of the parts, will have every motivation to abandon making parts for dead products. This will lead to a full scale abandonment of entire vendor lines.
Next is the cost of fuel. Around here premium is back up to 2.98 a gallon. In a couple of years, when gas gets back to $5 or $7 per gallon, many people such as PaulC who own large fuel inefficient vehicles will be heavily pressured to abandon them in favor of something which is more fuel efficient, and/or something for which they can get parts. Of course if someone makes enough money, they’ll probably cling to their 7,000 lb steed until they can’t even rob a wrecking yard for parts. Which, again, if it was made in the USA, the parts supply will be gone in about 5 years.
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