Speculators
As I understand it there are two forms off speculators.
The tradition speculator looks at an activity and says, "I believe they will succeed and I am willing stake my money upon their success or they say I believe they are going to fail and I will stake my money on their failure."
The classical economists I read (when it comes to liberal arts, outside of the physical sciences, I prefer using the teachings from pre-1950) this form off speculation leads to market discipline and ultimately lower prices.
The second form of speculation, which has greatly increased with computerized trading and world-wide, instant communication looks at the short-term, quasi-random fluctuations of prices and guesses what the price will be at some time in the future. This is similar to watching the wind blow the leaves and guessing whether there will be more leaves pointing left or right at any moment.
This form of speculation tends to increase market volatility and tends to destabilize markets. Markets, traditionally, have either prohibited or greatly curtailed this form of speculation.
So when comments are made on speculators or speculation it is necessary to define what one means.
When I say speculators are good for the market I refer to the first. When the gentlemen above criticizes speculators I think he is referring to the second.
It's so hard to have a discussion if we can't understand each other.
-----------
Furthermore I have also read the articles that state that the oil price is only marginally due to the weakness of the $$.
Obviously any comparison of prices has to have 2 dates; what the price was once and what it is now. It is very easy, particularly with prices that have fluctuations to pick any two points and use them to argue whatever one wants.
People who work with numerical data as a profession (I'm talking about engineers, folks that build bridges and design struts to hold wings onto aircraft - where if they make a mistake people die) know how to work with data to find the truth it contains and not use it as a means of deception to win whatever argument one wants.
These people will clearly observe that between 1970 and today (as an example) the profound decline of the dollar.
Regardless of all of the causes of this immediate gas price increase the larger story is the dollar's decline. It means the money one has been putting away for retirement for the past 40 years, even if well invested is worth a fraction of what one thought it would be when they started saving.
|