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Old 08-03-2017, 12:48 AM
sun tortise sun tortise is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 320
I stand corrected

I must avoid 3 a.m. posts, especially involving arithmetic. 160 charges per year would add up to 3200 over 20 years, not 6000.

I think you are saying road tax is embedded in the price of fossil fuels. This is something else i omitted. But i also assumed that fuel would remain at approximately $2.50. If we look at what fuel cost 20 years ago, this is extremely unlikely. I was just in NZ, and petrol there is at about $2NZ per litre, about $6 U.S. per gallon. This is likely where we are headed over time.

Electricity from PV's will not go up, it will remain free once they are installed.

PV panels are very stable over time and will likely lose about 10 % in 20 years. I recently gave a friend a set of small panels from the 1970's, and they were producing near rated output. Nothing is forever, i did not use that term.

The possibility that you may move, or get tired of the car, or the lifespan of either the CDI or the Li ion batteries is more or less a wash and largely irrelevant. The battery pack may depreciate somewhat more quickly than a CDI, but the rest of the EV may well outlast it. You will probably do an overhaul or 3 on your CDI over 600K + miles. If Dr Seba and Elon Musk and observed trends are correct, the replacement battery pack will likely be quite a bit cheaper when replacement time comes, whereas the cost of an overhaul will likely increase. Your new dwelling may just as likely have a PV system as your current one. You could easily buy a new EV.

Here in NY State, Community solar is becoming more common, where folks who do not have a sunny roof buy into a larger array elsewhere in the community, such as over an old landfill.

Given the current state of battery technology, most solar systems today are grid tied, as is mine. I did not advocate for or against the grid. All i did was reference Dr. Seba's belief that solar and battery storage will become so cheap that even a free source would cost more to send long distances over the grid than rooftop solar. Community microgrids may be part of a solar future. There is no contradiction between distributed and grid tied. The dichotomy is between rooftop (distributed) vs. the humongous solar farms the utilities favor.

You're right about what the installers get per watt to install a PV system. They get paid more than doctors for the time it takes. Anyone who is handy with a ladder and basic house wiring could do their own. Various solar outlets sell kits complete with diagrams, forms to file with your building department, and phone consultation for way less.

Good luck whether you go EV or CDI . I'm still with my ancient veggie burners. I just filtered another 55 gallons today.
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