Is anyone else afraid?
 

Electric cars will soon take over, that means hundreds of thousands of technicians and mechanics will be laid of.

I was reading some articles on electric car cost of operation and it's next to nothing. Even worse, I feel as though everything I'm studying at this moment is about the internal combustion engine might be a waste in about 10 or 15 years. Fuel trim, O2 monitoring, injector duty cycles, spark waveforms, injector waveforms etc.

Even in Europe, heavy equipment is moving towards electric and some of these machines can run for 7 hours on a charge.


The only field to look forward too is marine diesel since the electric technology has a long way to go for that industry. In short my end game has changed.

Electric cars still use similar body electronics and mechanical suspensions as ICE powered cars, the only thing really going away is the ICE and the transmission/driveline. Battery powered cars are only a stop-gap solution anyway, the end result is likely to be electric, but it won't be batteries powering it. I, for one, am interested to see what the future holds.

The writing is on the wall. Better learn some new skills ASAP.
LOL yeah just keep telling yourself that.

Time to be an electrician it looks like. Maybe HVAC.

In my opinion, simple is good. I do admire the mechanical parts of the old diesel Mercedes, though, and enjoy the sound of the engine. I also like that I can drive my diesel as long as I want as long as I put fuel in the tank. Charging an electric car can take a while, but at some point charging an electric car might not take much longer than filling a tank with fuel.

I also like that electric cars are zero emissions, though the emissions from the facility that produces the electricity has to be considered, and also battery production and disposal. I'm not a fan of hybrid cars... pick a mood and stick with it. Haha.

I like that in theory an electric car is pretty much just a motor, battery, and brakes on wheels. SO many less parts to go wrong. But then any new car will have SO many gadgets that will still make them problematic anyway. And I really wish they would make new cars with the same vintage style with which they used to build cars. There isn't a single car built in recent times that I would ever consider owning based on the fact that I don't think any of them have very good styling (and they have too many parts).

Mechanics
 

There will always be a need for good Mechanics so put in the effort to actually learn how to understand, diagnose and repair things, most who make their living as Mechanics, are parts changers and are easily flummoxed by anything that scanner cannot diagnose for them .

Be aware that real Mechanicing involves getting dirty and using your brain a lot, often in really unpleasant surroundings .

OTOH, actually fixing things gives a great feeling of accomplishment .

FWIW, plumbers make far more # but, they have to work with excrement.....

? Why be afraid ? the future is not written , wait and see what happens next .

2017 plug in electric vehicle market share of new vehicle sales = 1.13%

Electric Vehicles
 

Yes but that's -only- because they've not yet cracked the battery nut ~ as soon as they have batteries that will allow 500 honest miles (lights, heater/AC & radio etc.) our beloved ICE vehicles were be obsolete .

Yes, it will of course take a few years but it'll change much faster than most realize or are willing to accept .

You'll be fine, just be open to adaptation. I'm sure the same arguments and fear were felt when fuel injection and ECU/module control were in the horizon too. I welcome the simplicity myself, but will always be the guy to tinker with something...

People pointed out similar statistics in the early days of internal combustion while missing the real story.

EV sales
https://dqbasmyouzti2.cloudfront.net...36_1066_85.jpg

It will likely be more than 15 years until any major shift happens in the employment market for mechanics. Also keep in mind almost all fields will be experiencing fairly heavy retirement rates in the coming decade too as baby boomers retire. This is happening in a lot of skilled trades already.

Electric vehicles will still need "servicing" as any other car does, they may just not need as much powertrain related servicing.

There was that recent study that said that electric cars would cause a greater demand for mechanics.

The reason given, was that many buyers will put off buying a new car because they realize that their next car will have to be an electric car. In th emeantime, they will continue to dive their ICE cars and they will need more repairs as they age.

In a way, even now, we have a problem. Technicians are trained to repair the current overly electronic cars. They plug them into a computer that tells them what it thinks is wrong. Those technicians are not much like the old school mechanics.

Where we live, I am afraid to take my 123 or 107 in for a repair so end up doing most jobs myself. Regular indies here know domestic cars, but not old Benzes. And at a dealer, besides cost, they don't know what to do because there is nowhere on my old cars to plug their computer into ;)

You live in north America. For a slew of reasons. The arrival of the electric car in quantity will probably be late here. My guess is we will be the last developed area of the world to really see them in high numbers. They are likely to be highly electronic in nature and even use heat pumps for heat and air conditioning.

When the arrive in numbers yes there will be changes. I still visualise a lot of service will be needed. The internal combustion engine will not likely phase out totally for a long time either. Anyways as soon as certified in whatever course of action you decide on.

Not all people can run their own business. Yet that is a direction to seek. It takes some fortitude and more learning. Yet to me having control of your own working destiny was important. Some people just are more cut out for doing it it than others.

The Chinese especially have been working on ways to get more energy density into batteries. The technology is still based on lithium so far. This is a semi dangerous technology. If a battery shorts internally the whole pack can ignite in a violent self sustaining eruption. There will be people incinerated in electric cars over time. It results in a self sustaining manner so technically you should not keep an electric vehicle in a garage attached to your house. Unless that garage is really fireproofed well beyond todays code requirements. With a sprinkler system to stop the spread of the car burning.

The future promise for alternate powered vehicles is very much dependent on man's eventual understanding of science. There exists energy sources that nobody really understands still. Other than the full awareness currently that they exist. Personally I find this odd that the knowledge of them is well proven. Still nobody yet has been able to determine how they function. My guess is Russia is intent on research in these areas. Where China is advancing so fast in artificial intelligence development. America has asked them to stop.

So if the discovery of what these unknown energy fprces are occurs. They may prove useful or not depending on a lot of factors. Remember from a historical perspective the electron always existed. Look how long man existed before it was well enough understood to work with it. In less than 100 years it has become a really signifigant item of continuous development. In applying it.


I was an electronic tech and the changes alone in my career where nothing less than mind boggling. I only worked in the field for about twenty five years. Just got tired of it and moved on to other fields.

Yes I was around when the truly old time mechanics phased out. The mechanics that replaced them would not be cognizant of many tricks of the trade they used. For example the good ones had developed amazing intuition on what the problem probably was. There was never a charge for diagnostics.

I personally feel the expectation of being overbilled for a shop repair is semi justified. I do realize that everyone has to make a living at the same time. Yet many of the bills are way past what they should be in reality. The only satisfaction I see if it is even that. Some service facilities have basically no customers anymore. Down from eight bays and eight mechanics in one case locally I am aware of. To just two mechanics working there now. .In just the last three years.

With all due respect, I just have to point out to vwnate1, plumbers seldom deal with human waste. Maybe a few repair guys once in awhile or the unlicensed drain cleaner dudes. The decent wages come from the ability to install the piping systems that make buildings livable. I speak from 40 years experience. A good plumber has the same skillset as a good mechanic. Just applied to something else. So why are not auto mechanics compensated at the same rate? Because they haven't demanded it? As I think about that used motor oil from my 300D, which brown stuff is actually more toxic.?

Take up computer programming. I'll lend you my Fortran manual.

Need any tips, let me know...

Since I'm licensed in both fields to the highest level...

A major difference is where the work is performed...

House calls always cost more.

If you had to pick or recommend one uut of the two, which would you recommend?

This sounds like the way of the future, cars will soon become extraordinarily complex computers on wheels.


I'm up for learning programming.

Cost of enough tools to work effectively has and is getting even more expensive with time. In the mechanic trade to me is a downside.

Also in far too many cases the industry itself has issues. A local GM dealers mechanics went on strike. The law here in this Canadian province was they should get a certain percentage of the hourly rate.

They were not and this had to be pushed by the employees. I remember the case well as it occurred at the time that ownership of a GM franchise was considered almost a license to steal.

Anyways the modern car is complex enough that a specialty shop to me is a way to go for many reasons. Number one is you have a far better control over your parts costs. So you absorb far better margins on your parts inventory. Allowing you to charge a lower hourly rate. You should still come out far ahead financially than the shop trying to do everything.

Well, I don't know who it is then that deals with the numerous sewer back ups that occur or even just overflowing toilets. At least in the North where most houses have basements this is a common occurrence.

2 years ago, at Christmas, we had a lot of house guests and one toilet stopped working. The cast iron sewer pipes in very low crawl space had cracked open. A fully licensed plumbing company who normally did commercial work bailed us out starting on Boxing day. We had to cut out our flooring to access the pipes. New ABS pipes installed. Heck of a messy job, but they got it done.

This month, my daughter in law had a sewer back up in her basement. Caused damage to entire basement washroom. Now stripped out waiting for rebuild. New shower, walls etc. Plumber has already repaired the piping problem.

Can't imagine who else might have done these jobs. In fact they required a licensed plumber.

By the way, our MB dealer charges $140/hr. Plumbers nowhere near that much. I can fix my car, but can't deal with what plumbers have to deal with.

I had one of those back in 60s. Still helps. Just used an IF statement in a spreadsheet :)

I took a FORTRAN class in '93 I believe.
Professor Goda

Goda class...Goda sleep

Be ready to adapt and get some new training.

That said, nothing is free. Batteries take a crapload of juice to charge. Plus it's slow, even with a quick charger. On top of that, battery production isn't exactly eco friendly.

Even if the ICE is dead, there's still a lot of crap that can go wrong with a new snazzy tech mobile. ICE is simply a liquid fuel drinking power plant bolted to a boatload of other stuff universally found in cars. That boatload is what will give you job security. Moving parts and electronics getting heated/jiggled for miles on end eventually break, no matter how good they originally were.

I saw a row of "Tesla" charging stations at a travel center truck stop outside of San Luis Potosi, Mexico which seems really weird - hundreds of miles from the next city.

Don't worry, nobody was using them :rolleyes:... but with gas at almost $4.50/gal there people sure are looking.

not afraid,glad I'm close to death soon

You know I always thought it would be cool to learn one trade and go to work and be set for life. But I am not sure it works like that for most people in technology. Automotive is technology. And it changes.

I focused on being a generalist. I learned a lot of different things and worked my way through. I learned cars because I was interested. It certainly made me a better engineer. I got to work on everything from engine controls to long haul telecom hardware. (I am a digital designer by trade). There was nothing sadder than working with engineers who didn’t understand the platform we were making circuitry for. Seriously it is amazing to see how many clueless ABS programmers there are out there who do not know how brake hydraulics work. I literally worked on a project with a programmer who couldn’t tell whether his car was locked up or not in the rain. He consequently wrote lousy ABS control algorithms.

So I think it is worth learning. But being able to hang your hat on it “forever” to feed your kids? I dunno. Be ready to adapt and don’t borrow a ton of money for Snapon tools specific to ICE hoping to invest in your ICE workshop of the future.

I'm more scared of having to learn and buy tools for my 15 Volvo. Thing has no dip sticks anywhere and only sensors most of which need dealer software to access. Very proprietary. The good news is 100,000 mi warranty.

I put that at this bottom but will also post at the top so it does not get glossed over.

In the end you need a skill set that is interchangeable across many fields. Having a good foundation in electronics / electrical / pnuematics / hydraulics / mechanical systems will accomplish that.

If you work for a company that touts " Furnace inspection $ 20 " / " Same day service or you don't pay " / " 20 outlets- switches for $ 20 " , you can be assured that you will be pushed into selling marginally needed services.

If you do go down the path of electrician / HVAC , try to lean towards the commercial end of things. If you do residential repairs, you will be educating every customer you come across where as commercial customers generally understand what is going on.

You see the number of people on this list that cry that auto mechanics are evil and charge too much, same thing will go on in the residential side of things.

I probably would not work for a new house builder, everything is about speed and low cost.

Computer programming will do zero to help repairing a car, having electronics knowledge will. Also, electrical ( house wiring ) and electronic skills ( fixing a TV ) , are not the same thing but it is possible to know both.

Some other things to consider. Are you willing / able to do the work you chose on a daily basis when you are 65 ? I got out of the day to day auto repair business at 34 because I could see there was a hard physical road ahead. I moved into industrial / factory machine repair - design. Half of my time was spent in the office doing research / design / directing others and the other half on the floor doing repairs.

Now at 55 I've semi retired and do work for various businesses when they need high level electrical / electronic / mechanical help. This leads to the importance of having a good reputation.

I recently stopped at a machine shop to have something surface ground. The knew me by rep, didn't remember my name but after an actual minute of conversation wanted me to look at a machine that was not operating. This Russian horizontal mill built in 1974 , had the control electronics up graded in the mid 90's and has zero documentation for the upgrade. I'm being tasked to get it running, generating wiring diagrams and documentation. The control cabinet is the size of 4 refrigerators and it pretty full of PLC / relays / contractors / DC drives .

In an area where cost of living is low, it is going to pay in the area of $40 / hr. Their other machines desperately need attention so this is likely to lead to near full time work.

In the end you need a skill set that is interchangeable across many fields. Having a good foundation in electronics / electrical / pnuematics / hydraulics / mechanical systems will accomplish that.

well, Someone has to program all the silly crap that Tesla is offering on its many upgrades to the firmware. BTW I'm sure they don't use Fortran, or Forth or anything like that.
quote (effective Sept 2018):
Tesla added a couple of fun and goofy Easter Eggs for Tesla owners to enjoy even when they’re just sitting in their Teslas, for example:

Here’s what each new feature does:
• Romance Mode: Provides a video of a roaring fireplace on the car’s center-stack LCD screen (or, only screen on the Model 3). According to the on-screen description
“Experience the warmth of our virtual fireplace with Romance Mode. To enable Romance Mode when your car is in Park, tap the Tesla “T” at the top center of the touchscreen, then tap the fireplace logo in your Easer Egg tray.”
•Pole Position: This is an adaption of the iconic old-school racing game Pole Position, still in glorious, pixel-chunky 8-bits but recast with a Tesla and set on Mars. You can only play in Park, and you use the car’s steering wheel to control the car in the game.
•Emissions Testing Mode: Finally, a way to turn your $80,000 state-of-the-art car into a giant Whoopee cushion. You can pick from multiple fart sounds, including Not a Fart, Short Shorts Rapper, Falcon Heavy, Ludicrous Fart, Neurastink, Boring Fart, and what seems to be a fart randomizer.Interestingly, there’s options for controlling what seat the fart appears to be emitting from, which must use some interesting acoustic control.

Mechanic's Don't Get No Respect
 

I guess it matters where you ply the trade, I've plumbed a _lot_ of toilets and unstuck many more, no one ever calls until the situation is grim .

Yes, quite similar works but different tools and parts .

No, not in the least.

The economic impact of swapping to electrical motors will keep the internal combustion engines in manufacturing for another 50 years.

Electric cars may become the norm. At minimum, something like the actual intent of the BMW i3, which has a battery for true EV operations, and then a mere 35kW engine, to give non0-trivial charging capability and a little boost, but essentially always able to be operated optimally loaded for maxmium SFC and optimized pollution characteristics.

The energy density of liquid fuels is just so much higher. Not even close. Batteries/hybrids make a major benefit on consumption in many ways, but not pure range and operations untethered.

Our pollution laws turn great ideas like the i3 into stupid ones, where the engine can only run in certain scenarios when the battery is too low, etc.

So Id bet on hybrids, or actually more likely, PHEVs, to get the best of all worlds, and then the optimization on the engines being limited to a small dynamic range.

As for jobs? Nope. Just trading one thing for another. All the suspension/interior/etc will be the same or worse. Youre just trading an engine person for an inverter and battery person.

Tough call... electrician work is very repetitive, the tough stuff is dealing with old plaster walls...
Or apartment buildings, where everything is mapped out by the architect...

HVAC is more rewarding, dealing with customers needing comfort solutions.

The diagnose equipment should be only used as a direction of the fault but NEVER as precise indication.

Some fault codes are triggered by other factors. Let's say I had a car with P0340 (camshaft position sensor). But, the sensor is ok.

Turns out to be a faulty valve switch solenoid (VVTi). So not all faults are just one thing with these modern cars.

I don't think EV will overtake ICE as alternative fuels should be introduced. EV is just a part of the start. I already see Volt on the scrapyard because of a broken battery. Car is only 3.5years old? So which car is making more pollution?

Because here in Europe an average battery pack will cost over 4000$ and the car after 4 years is 4000$. So economically its totaled.

Inductive charging from power lines embedded in highways could cure range anxiety:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/qualcomms-inductive-charging-road-could-change-the-way-we-build-evs/

Meanwhile if all those electric cars are going to be refueled from the grid we have a long, long ways to go before the grid can handle it. Not to mention the energy corporations will get their money and the cost of operation will go up as a result. I would like to see it happen but more on a solar basis, which still needs more advancement to be adequate.

This is exactly why I always push for posters to list the detailed description of the trouble code. Too many just post a basic code and a " Tell me what to change " or list a P1234 ( engine ), say they changed the engine and the problem is still there.

Many detailed codes will list a component and what the computer is seeing that it does not like. Signal intermittent , signal low , signal high , signal implausible . These give clues as _what to test for_ NOT _ what part to change_.
I really doubt that a 4 year old car is only worth 4 K. And besides, as far as I know, the volt can still be driven on gas if the propulsion battery fails.

Not gonna happen any time soon. Diesel cars and trucks won’t go anywhere for at least 40 years or more. The cost of the batteries and the downtime to recharge is ridiculous. You think companies are gonna take a huge hit on some electric POS? Those trucks need to run not sitting at a charging station while the driver is sticking his thumb up his, well you know!

Besides,.. quit selling diesel and you can make your own biodiesel.

For over the road trucks, there will be a battery change out for faster turn around. The first to try this will be freight companies for depot to depot runs since this is a stable route with known energy requirements.

Next will be inner city routes where energy use is slightly more variable and then suburb / rural routes where the trip routs is less stable. We are no where near an owner operator running an electric truck.

The real future is natural gas, UPS has moved many trucks to this fuel. I've also seen gas turbine / electric drive trucks in the design phase. This is a real alternative to 100 % electric. A small battery pack can be used for yard moves and the turbine on the road. This battery also gives the option of recovering energy lost in braking.

Also, battery powered mini excavators exist right now from many manufacturers. Enter " battery powered excavator " in your google machine. The target is in a building where fumes can't be contained / exhausted.

When anyone starts to leans towards " language " to make their point and randomly says things are " junk " without any real reasons to back it up, that tells me that they don't understand the problem.

Electric Delivery Trucks
 

"We are no where near an owner operator running an electric truck. "

Coca-Cola has been using all electric beverage delivery trucks for some years now in the Los Angeles basin .

I always wonder ow far such a heavy vehicle can go when loaded .

Owner / operator is a guy that bought his own truck and moves loads for others. This can be on his trailer or someone eases trailer.

Truck fleets have fixed depots where charging and battery change out infrastructure can be located. Until a battery standard is adhered to and on the road facilities built out, the OO won't get an electric truck.

I'm guessing that this same discussion occurred when wind power moved to water wheels to steam to gasoline.

I listened to what you had to say until your last sentence. Sorry professor for my profane language I will refrain. And I repeat I know nothing! Absolutely nothing about anything. Especially relating to this subject! Zero!

I suspect that fleets may find it advantageous to exchange tractors rather than change batteries. OO's aren't on the road 24 hours, and so charging infrastructure at rest stops may address that problem. I don't see the need for a standard battery pack, but a standard charging inductor or connector is key. Another point is that the roof of a 45 ft trailer offers enough space for an 8KW solar array, which can add range in some applications. Long haul electric is barely viable today, but the path for improvement is clear.

OOPS !
 

O.K., I got it .

-Nate

This reminds me of someone freaking out that the switch from carburator to fuel injection will ultimately be the end of the world as we know it for mechanics.

Aa long as people use personal conveyances to get around, there will be people needed to service them. Dont really get the freakout that a change from ICE to electric motors will automatically mean no work for technicians on todays hyper complex vehicles.

Just dont marry yourself to old methods, and really apply yourself to automotive electrical diagnosis classes. A lot of technicians seem to consider electrical work wizardry, and dont take the time to really learn to diagnose and repair.

You can write your own ticket if you can truly understand, diagnose, and repair electrical problems which will be increasingly inportant as complexity increases, even as engines change. All shops need these people. Anyone can do brakes and an oil change.

At 55 years old I think my V8’s (old and new) are safe for the remainder of my life. The Diesel car? Maybe not.

I love my diesel but if electric reaches a point of market saturation and technological development that makes it very competitive I'd probably be swayed over pretty easily....

We're in the Model A days of electric cars -- how complex was a Model A compared to the the cars of today? Same increase of complexity will occur with electric cars. The catch is, all that ICE knowledge won't be needed, but a need for other knowledge will be needed.

If you want, learn ICE stuff now, because like others have said, it'll continue to be useful for a few decades yet. However, don't stop there, learn how to diagnose everything about a car that you can, and learn EV car systems when you can.

Or.. learn ICE only then stop learning and instead, fight the other mechanics for the decreasing number of ICE jobs. The choice is yours.

Tbh. Electric cars are as simple as cutting a tree if you had a background of pcb/battery repair jobs behind you. There are a lot of videos now on how to work on a EV.