I still enjoy pointing out that I predicted this drop in oil way back when everyone was freaking out.:D Just saying!:D

I think it's an amazing prognostication in every way. People can't predict the failure of the investment banking system or real estate worth a crap. Can't predict the oil price tomorrow or next month, but have no problem embracing a mystical belief that they know what will or will not affect prices 10 years hence. Faith is a beautiful thing!

B

You're confusing short-term specific predictions with long-term, more general predictions. There's no foreseeable way additional US drilling can affect international oil prices beyond a few percentage points because of the immensity of global oil production vs. US oil production. These numbers are really difficult to twist in anyone's favor.

I hear gas is now $5 in some parts of the south. But this has to do with the interrupted refining capacity, not crude supply.

Okay, I'll accept your argument that long term and short term economic predictions are not equivalent, leaving aside for the moment the question of where one ends and the other begins.

I have never heard of a long-term economic prediction that was proven to be accurate. On inspection, most professional predictions are "adjusted" through time.

Economics is fundamentally unpredictable. There are far to many unplanned, unexpected, and unpredictable elements. I cannot think of any decadal interval in the past 100 years in which some expected event or invention didn't upset the prevailing expectations. I see no reason to suppose that the future wont be at least as unpredictable. To me it is arrogant to presume otherwise.

B

Are you saying that additional US drilling has the potential for significant & long-term impact on global oil prices? If so, what numbers are you basing that on?

Absolutely not. I make NO predictions. As I said previously, I think it is impossible to predict the price. That was the point.

Let the market decide the fair market price of any commodity.

B

So where was the long term general prediction to cover this financial mess? How about the next one?

If it can affect the economy of the country enough, why not? Global oil prices are based on the USD. If the economy goes up, the USD will go up and the price of oil goes down.

Did anybody really think the hungry capitalists were going to be stopped from drilling for oil in every last place it might be found? ANWR? Probably just a matter of time. Oil shale? Oh hell, it's only the rocky mountains. Once you've seen one mountain range, you've seen 'em all.

Look to Haiti, ya'all. Our eventual destination, or well, role model anyway. Deforested and swimming in fetid filth.

About then, people will change their habits.

The economy,USD and oil have all been going down.

Actually the dollar has been getting stronger (at least before Ike).

Did you miss the part where the numbers are from the U.S. EIA ?
Not a pseudo-reference.
Or do you have a better one ?
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Maybe you need to read the post again.
It said
" no significant impact on fuel prices "
Before, or after the year 2030, when the wells are suspected to be up and running.
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:jester:
RichC

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And I predicted fuel prices would drop until election time.

Just like the have the last two election cycles.

:jester:

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~~~~~ EmBrAcInG MyStIcAl BelIeFs ~~~~~
 

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The issue of drilling for oil has nothing to do with...

" long-term economic prediction "
or
" Economics "
or
" what will or will not affect prices 10 years hence ".

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It is very simple to look at all the wells that have already been drilled.
And take the average amount of time it takes until the well produces oil.
And apply that information to any new well.
In this case, if we start today, there will probably be no well producing oil until the year 2030.
.

Then look at how much oil wells have produced in the past.
And apply that number to any new well.
Then see if this new supply will make any difference in our supply of oil.
.

.
No " prognostication "
No " embracing a mystical belief "

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:jester:
RichC

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