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Financial Giants Falling: Lehman, Merrill Lynch, AIG

Morning Edition, September 15, 2008 · Some of the biggest names in the financial world are in trouble. Lehman Brothers, a huge investment bank, is going into bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch remains afloat, but Bank of America is expected to buy it. And the insurance company AIG is examining its options after its stock plunged again last week, losing about half its remaining value.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94617074

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American Automakers Ask Congress for $50 Billion in Low-Interest Loans, an Industrial Info News Alert

The American automotive industry is in dire straits. Sales have continued to fall each month and announcements of layoffs, closures, buyouts and early retirement occur almost monthly.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/american-automakers-ask-congress-50/story.aspx?guid=%7BEB34D925-E404-4453-96BF-33F37A78A4D3%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN


RichC

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When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix

True.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=EUR&to=USD&amt=1&t=2y

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cult plus time equals religion

You are still apparently confused. Predicting the price of oil 20 years from now has nothing to do with the report from the Dept. of Energy and it's very different from predicting the impact (in percentage points) of US drilling on global oil prices, whatever they may be.

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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

AFAIK, a lot of countries in OPEC keep their data secret. So, how will you predict what the percentage point is when you don't know what the total output will be?

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

The USD is not the only thing that affects oil prices and the USD doesn't necessarily follow economic growth. Sometimes the economy grows as the currency falls. This frequently happens with interest and/or tax cuts that temporarily stimulate growth but increase the deficit and/or devaluation of the currency. Besides, the US economy no longer has the same influence on the rest of the world as it once did. Even if what you say is true, that the USD will go up as the economy goes up and hence oil goes down, it would be temporary as a growing economy consumes more oil, putting more strain on supplies and pressuring oil prices to go up again. Regardless of how you look at it, unless there's some huge reserve of oil in the US that no one knows about, US oil production is just a few percentage points of global oil production and thus is relatively insignificant.

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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

AFAIK oil output is public & known data. What may not be totally public are other countries' reserve estimates.

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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

And that is also another unknown, isn't it?

__________________
01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

So without knowing what their reserve estimate is and what the consumption of oil is going to be in the next 20 yrs, how do you know what there is left at the end of 20 yrs?

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

No one ever said there were no uncertainties, but I sure value intelligent guesstimates based on actual known numbers over blind faith & hope, which is what you seem to propose, i.e. maybe we'll be lucky and find huge reserves that we didn't know about, so there's our solution.

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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

Well, maybe we will find huge reserves we didn't know about and maybe we won't. If we don't look, unless we trip over them, we probably won't find it. In the ground, it is worth nothing. Out of the ground it is worth something. All they have is a SWAG. Should we totally ignore it? Probably not. However, should we accept their SWAG as 100% truth, absolutely not.

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

Nice links, now explain how they relate to the thread.

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1993 300E 2.8 185k miles
2006 Mustang Convertible 4.0 Eaton Supercharged

You said the value of a dollar was going up.

The links show two reasons the value of a dollar is going down

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The country does not need to waste millions of dollars on drilling for oil.
We have too many other things we need to take care of.


RichC

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When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix

I'm fine with looking for more reserves, but not on my dime. I say get rid of the special tax breaks for the oil industry, or give the same breaks to the alternative energy industry. But the republicans in congress will fight tooth and nail to preserve these special treats for the oil industry. After all, where do you think their campaign money comes from?

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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

I'd rather they get rid of all the breaks for any industry. If the industry is to survive, let them do it on their dime.

__________________
01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

You are still apparently confused.

It is impossible to predict the price of fuel tomorrow, much less 20 years hence. If the price is unpredictable, then so is the impact, or lack thereof, of new sources of oil.

B