Let's Speculate, shall we?

[PanzerSD]

I've been watching this N. Korea thing fairly closely, and I have yer to see someone speculate about the "what if" scenarios.
So here's the Question.

If N. Korea manages to launch and Detonate a nuclear warehead over a populated area, what do WE think would happen next?

[t walgamuth]

I really doubt that he will do that. The nuke thing is all about getting respect from the rest of the world and keeping them out.

If he did I imagine we would work with China to do something about it.

I don't think we would be rash enough to invade in China's back yard today.

[davestlouis]

I would have to imagine that other Asian nations would stomp on his head if he got too froggy...they don't want a wildman like that running loose with nuke capability. Russia could also put a stop to his aspirations.

[Txjake]

The US, which has troops stationed on the DMZ and in major population areas will be affected. If met by a nuclear assualt on the south and corresponding US casualties and massive alled casualties, inc civilians, the US policy would be to respond in kind, via tac nukes on massed NK troops and C&C structures within NK. If we dont, we would be disgraced as a country.

The only out to that I see would be if China launched massive strikes into NK, eliminating the threat.

I hope Obama has his war face ready if it comes to this: much more is at stake than the peninsula of Korea. The whole balance of world power will change if we flinch....

[LUVMBDiesels]

I doubt HE will be the one detonating a bomb. What I think will happen is that he will sell one to a terror group who will then take out NY or London...

When (not if) that happens, there will be a whole lot of hang wringing, but no real action because, after all, we cannot say with 100% certainty it WAS a Bombs by Kimmy A-bomb. Maybe after Kim lets the FBI into the PDRK to poke around, we could arrest the Dear Leader, Miranda him, then bring him back for a dream team to defend...

As for China, I do not think they would get involved unless it looked like the USA was going to do something about Kim. Then you could flip a coin as to whose side they will land on...

[Hatterasguy]

China would send the PLA south to crush little Kim like the pissant tin pot dictator he is.

A nuke explosion would hurt China's business, the PLA would not stand for someone hurting their profits in such a manner.

[Txjake]

China's economy hinges heavily on our viability as a marketplace. I think they'd flip on NK if they saw a plus side

[MS Fowler]

IMO, the real threat of a nuke is just that, the threat. Until you actually use it, you have great clout. After you actually use one you are attacked by everyone else--all your enemies unite against you.

[LUVMBDiesels]

I think China would frown on Kimmy nuking the USA, but South Korea, Japan or the Philippines? They would look at that as getting rid of the competition

I also think that as long as Kim has plausible denyabilty they would not touch him

[Hatterasguy]

Than we send him a gift from the land where the giant mushrooms grow, and ours make his look like cherry bombs.

I wonder if little kim is aware that one Trident sub can make most of NK evaporate off the map...kind of like white out for world political problems...

[Strife]

Originally Posted by LUVMBDiesels

I doubt HE will be the one detonating a bomb. What I think will happen is that he will sell one to a terror group who will then take out NY or London...

When (not if) that happens, there will be a whole lot of hang wringing, but no real action because, after all, we cannot say with 100% certainty it WAS a Bombs by Kimmy A-bomb. Maybe after Kim lets the FBI into the PDRK to poke around, we could arrest the Dear Leader, Miranda him, then bring him back for a dream team to defend...

Actually, there are ways to tell where materials came from by their signatures before and after "use", and these ways are known and verifiable by all the nuclear powers. I think we have made it pretty clear that our response to such a thing would be of the "most severe" kind, which is diplomat speak for ka-boom.

I really don't understand these people. OK, maybe they can make 10 of these, and put them on 10 missiles. Suppose 2 of the missiles worked and one of the bombs actually did something other than make a big mess (although it probably would miss anyway). What would our response be - maybe it would range from nothing to complete sterilization of the whole surface of the country in a half hour. What kept (and keeps) the balance between the big powers is MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction - but in the case of NK, it's just AD.

[POS]

I'm expecting/hoping China and Russia to come in and solve this problem - we're busy.

[jlomon]

China has no choice to engage militarily. They will have to enter NK and establish their own DMZ to contain the border to stop the flood of refugees. I don't know how far south they're willing to go. I have to believe that China wants to limit their exposure to NK - the more they own, the more problems they inherit.

[JollyRoger]

Originally Posted by Txjake

The US, which has troops stationed on the DMZ and in major population areas will be affected. If met by a nuclear assualt on the south and corresponding US casualties and massive alled casualties, inc civilians, the US policy would be to respond in kind, via tac nukes on massed NK troops and C&C structures within NK. If we dont, we would be disgraced as a country.

The only out to that I see would be if China launched massive strikes into NK, eliminating the threat.

I hope Obama has his war face ready if it comes to this: much more is at stake than the peninsula of Korea. The whole balance of world power will change if we flinch....

Nuclear fallout out would spread over Russia, China and Japan if a nuclear exchange takes place in Korea. South Korea would essentially cease to exist if Seoul is destroyed, and I doubt much of the US force there would survive an atomic attack, given the small size of SK three or four bombs would pretty much suffice to wipe us and SK out. Politically, it would be impossible for us to retaliate against the North with nuclear weapons because of the fallout. We would have to depend on either a Chinese invasion or use chemical weapons. I'd bet we'd launch the biggest nerve gas attack ever seen on the planet.

I think the situation is the most worrisome on the planet. The regime in NK is starting to look like the Hitler regime was towards the end, suicidal fanatics increasingly losing the facilities of reason. There are signs that China is starting to recognize it.

[Txjake]

Originally Posted by JollyRoger

Nuclear fallout out would spread over Russia, China and Japan if a nuclear exchange takes place in Korea. South Korea would essentially cease to exist if Seoul is destroyed, and I doubt much of the US force there would survive an atomic attack, given the small size of SK three or four bombs would pretty much suffice to wipe us and SK out. Politically, it would be impossible for us to retaliate against the North with nuclear weapons because of the fallout. We would have to depend on either a Chinese invasion or use chemical weapons. I'd bet we'd launch the biggest nerve gas attack ever seen on the planet.

I think the situation is the most worrisome on the planet. The regime in NK is starting to look like the Hitler regime was towards the end, suicidal fanatics increasingly losing the facilities of reason. There are signs that China is starting to recognize it.

logic to this, for sure. fallout is a concern. a chemical agent attack would not be as effective as a tac nuke or cruise missle attack, but it might occur, if we have enough chemical weapons stockpiled. The NKs are periously crazy and something is going to fall off the edge of the table soon...