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#1
12-12-2012, 12:28 PM
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A question of predicting sales based on scale.
I sell stuff at consumer fairs. In the past, at shows with a fairly small audience I sold an inexpensive item at very consistent rate of about 15-17 items per 1,000 visitors, and another item that is expensive at a rate of 1-2 per 1,000 visitors. This has been at fairs with around 2,000 visitors and about 100 sellers. I’m going to be selling at a fair with about 40,000 visitors and about 500 sellers and am trying to get a handle on how much inventory I will likely need. Using a 1:1 scale for this may be optimistic, but I’m at a loss as how to guestimate otherwise. Anyone know of models to look at for this kind of thing? TIA 
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#2
12-12-2012, 12:56 PM
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A: You can take as much with you as you'd like, the big question is how much you are willing to carry back with you. (If it doesn't sell)
B: Scale up your original sales figures based on 20-30,000 visitors (There is simply NO WAY every person is going to make it past your both.) C: At a show this large bring a good amount of inventory based on what you can comfortably store in the booth. You'd be amazed how quickly it can go.... I've gone to 3 day shows where nothing is left at the end; easy pack-up and drive home. Conversely I once helped someone with a show who thought he needed his ENTIRE inventory and only sold one or two boxes of product; Cleanup was quite the hassle.
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1982 300GD Carmine Red (DB3535) Cabriolet Parting Out 1990 300SEL Smoke Silver (Parting out) 1991 350SDL Blackberry Metallic (481)  "The thing is Bob, its not that I'm lazy...its that I just don't care."
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#3
12-12-2012, 02:56 PM
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I think fulcrums viewpoint is good as long as it's stock that is already on hand. If Link is having to lay out cash for the stock, then the number is much more important.
In my experience, the problem is that you can just never outguess the public. Best of luck with it. I hope you have exactly the right number with no one not getting one and none left to take home. 
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2001 SLK 320 six speed manual 2014 Porsche Cayenne six speed manual Annoy a Liberal, Read the Constitution
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#4
12-12-2012, 03:10 PM
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I think the law of diminishing returns applies here. Are the items you are selling small? Do you have them (stocked) ?
There are 20x more customers, But I agree above, only half or less will see you. There are 5x more vendors. After adjusting the 20x to 10x, and keeping the 5x, Id guess to bring 50% to double the inventory. Thats just my crazy logic. I would probably ignore it if I where you.
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Eugene 10 E63 AMG 93 300te 4matic 07 BMW X3 14 Ford F-150 Fx2
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