Another way at looking at extended warranty other than the savings in repairs, is the value of the car that the warranty is applied to. If I were required to pay $2,500 for a warranty, then the car price would have to be over $20K at least to be worth that investment.

Then another aspect to the value of an extended warranty would depends upon one's mechanical aptitude and enthusiasm. The water pump on my wife’s 98’ C280 (V6) went bad, luckily I noticed the chirping noise from a slipping belt on a slower turning water pump shaft due to bad bearings before it locked up and broke the belt. Dealer wanted about $750 to change, I did it for $150 including putting in a new thermostat.

The point I’m making is that the dealer charges for repairs may be $4000 over a few years, but the real cost when a DYI is included may be a $1000 +/-
MarkC