I think it would all come down to how the general population reacts. I think our highly complex society is vulnerable if we all go home and bar our doors in panic. If we can maintain composure and keep core systems on-line we will be golden.
Ironically less complex societies will probably endure a possible pandemic far better even though they would be suffering higher mortality rates.
I bet that while a pandemic could bring our society to a grinding halt it would have negligible effect on the current state in Iraq.
Jorg