That's right, given today's technology and oil prices.

40K is just a technological breakthrough or a oil embargo away.

Another result of the increase in resolution and computing power of the current seismic surveys over even the recent past is that old surveys can be re-evaluated with current computers to give better resolution of formations than what was computed only a few years ago and new shoots provide much higher resolution. This will result in discovery of sources that were previously overlooked or declined as ambiguous or too small, etc to develop. It may also give new life to old fields like in East TX where I heard there was a shoot going on in the Beaumont area (ever heard of Spindletop?) and Kilgore.

That's one of the problems of the "Peak Oil" estimations. They are always based on best guesses as to oil prices and technology. I think the "Peak Oil" theory is pretty much self-evident (it's a finite resource) but pinning down the date of "Peak Oil" is going to be done in hindsight, not in prediction.

B