Quote:
Originally Posted by 450slcguy
Exactly correct, except it's more like an 8th century mentality. Nothing the US can do will end this insurgency. There are no solutions or change of strategies that will beat the insurgency. Just like Vietnam, we can win all the battles but the war will never end.
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I don't think we really want to make the Vietnam analogy concerning withdrawal, do we? We told the world the date by which we would leave RVN. The VC and NVA regulars massed troops in advance of our departure and attacked as we were leaving. By then no American could stomach the idea of going back in, though we did sign a treaty to that effect with the North Vietnamese in Paris. They recognized that we were war-weary and do nothing. I reckon the same back-stabbing will take place if we set a time-table for withdrawal. Only a complete boneheaded f**king idiot, like Richard Nixon, would do something that stupid.
We lost Vietnam, not because the US military was unwilling or unable to fight. We lost because (as Bin Laden accurately opined) Americans have no stomach for war. That is the only major point in common between Iraq and Vietnam.
This is a transitional period for Iraq and I'm willing to guess that the chances of success in Iraq are worse than 50%. This is essentially what I have said since 2002. The iraqi factions were brought together under a common government through murder and intimidation. This is very much like Yugoslavia and completely different from Vietnam.
In S Vietnam we treated the ARVN and the civilian Vietnamese rather poorly because we were contemptuous of their lack of resolve and the completely corrupt system that the Vietnamese inherited from their colonial masters the French!
I have seen no indication that our civilian leadership treats Iraqi leadership other than with the deference afforded a sovereign nation. I know it's just for public show. But in Vietnam we didn't even bother to do that.
In Vietnam we never told our client state that we wanted them to take-over until a year or so before the collapse of the gov. In Iraq we have told Iraqis since GHWB and into the 1990's that we wanted Saddam out but don't want our people to stay.
In Vietnam we were unwilling to chase-down supply lines through adjacent countries. In Iraq we have had SF and CIA folks lurking and skulking and killing bad guys who smuggle stuff. It is a largely unreported war because part of what keeps CIA & SF safe is secrecy. Those men (I believe they are all men at this juncture) go waaaay out on a limb and removed from logistical support for many days or weeks at a time.
Perhaps the worst thing we could do from a
PR perspective would be to seize their oil and sell it to our benefit. We certainly could do it. But doing so would simply confirm in people's minds that we deposed Saddam to get his oil. IMO we deposed Saddam to prevent him (Saddam) from fulfilling his oft-stated policy of bringing middleastern oil under pan-arab control. He conveniently self-proclaimed as leader of the pan arabists.