Quote:
Originally Posted by tankdriver
I think he is making a mistake and suggesting that the lottery draws from one drum, instead of one drum for each spot. All he's saying is if you draw from one drum of 50 and don't replace the ball, then redraw, then the odds for each number change because there is one less ball in the drum.
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No, he is making a completely different mistake. Many lotteries do draw without replacement.
I will agree that at any point in the game, the chance for a particular ball appearing next is not fixed. It goes up as the game is played (unless already drawn).
Where the fallacy lies is thinking that this makes the lottery any harder or easier to win than a sequence of coin tosses. Assuming a fair coin and lottery, these are equivalent activities.