Yes, at best.

The curious thing to watch will be where the evangelical right goes in this election. They are very reliable voters -- they turn-out in numbers greater than most other segments of society and they are a very large group. Their endorsement very a mixed blessing. A large number of voters are instantly repelled by them. So you get to draw from a very committed source but aalso alienate a large group. The trick is to conduct a slight-of-hand trick in which the evangelicals come to believe you're not Satan's representative and are sympathetic to their views, but that you don't allow yourself to become publicly wedded to them.

Reagan and Clinton I did it just right. Bush I flubbed by alienating them while Bush II flubbed it by being defined as one of them. It looks to me like Obama and Clinton II are both angling to gather then into the fold without embracing them. The Republicans, except for Huckaby, aren't actively seeking their support.

At least in the southern states, the evangelical vote was traditionally Democrat. Reagan managed to drive a wedge between the democrats and evangelicals. But I think the evangelicals are ready to go back home. The Republicans are in serious danger of losing the evangelicals. If they do lose the evangelicals they will definitely lose the election and lose it in a big way.

B