First, the surge has to work. What we have at this point is overwhelming military force. Under those circumstances, militias join that force so as not become dead. That's why they joined AQII and that's why they switched sides.

Unless the Iraqi government can become functional in a matter of a few months to a year we're quickly going to return to the status quo ante.

If we get to that point, whomever is president will declare victory, blame violence on the Iraqi gov and the previous administration and begin withdrawing with much fanfare and paper streamers along parade routes for the returning heroes.

If however, the Iraqi gov does gain competency, which IMO is an open question, then whomever is president will declare victory, take all credit for the emerging Iraqi democracy and begin withdrawing with much fanfare and paper streamers along parade routes for the returning heroes.

B