Quote:
Originally Posted by pawoSD
1. Drilling in ANWAR would do nothing to offset prices.
2. I am fully opposed to it as all it would do is destroy one of the last pristine areas on the planet.
3. They say even if they went ahead with drilling it would be nearly 8-10 years before any of that oil even reached market. It would not affect prices at all.
4. Also, there's not THAT much oil there. It may sound like a lot....but I read somewhere that based on current US consumption, we'd suck it dry in less than a year if we soley used it as our fuel source. (which is impossible)
5. We really do need $6-7 fuel, so the majority of guzzler vehicles are removed from the roads.
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1. That assumption comes from unproven estimates of the recoverable oil & gas present in the area. When we tie the words "assumptions" and "estimates" together in a single sentence we are awful close to the word, "guesses". How do we improve estimates of recoverable oil & gas? Drilling. It could be that there is even less recoverable petroleum than is estimated. In which case, the oil companies would lose billions of dollars of investment risk. It could be that there is more than the present estimate, in which case the oil companies would make more money than they used to raise money to cover their risk. Everybody that has a 401K probably owns some oil stock. If the oil companies make a lot of money then my 401K makes money and I like that.
2. To me, that is the best argument against drilling. It's subjective, but much more compelling than the economic arguments.
3. That's why they call it a risky investment. But that's what oil companies do on a daily basis. Guess how much it costs an oil company to drill onshore in LA & TX per week -- about $10K. And they may drill for over a month on a single hole. There are about 2,000 land rigs running in North America. That's about $80,000,000 of risk per month on drilling. They usually pay off, but certainly not always. It's far less risky than roulette but far more risky than the S&P 500. That's their money. With great risk comes the possibility of great reward. But you gotta have the balls for the risk. Not many people do so they spread the risk -- investors. I have a good friend that has been risking his own money since 1938 (took a brief vacation to fight in the Pacific during WWII). He has lost millions of dollars over his lifetime but has made more than he lost. He told me that it is a tough feeling at the end of 3-4 weeks of drilling with no production to decide whether to shut it down or keep going. How many $10K weeks could I sustain? Ha! Years ago I got into one for a small investment and it is still paying me almost 30 years later. Not much but crap, $100/month for 30 years is pretty nice. I wish I'd stuck with it, but I crapped-out one time and lost my ass along with my nerve.
4. That goes to my answer to #1.
5. That "need" is predicated on the belief that we should conserve petroleum. I haven't seen an argument for conservation that I find particularly compelling. I stand ready to be educated.