This is a subject near and dear to my heart as I've studied this region since college, have relatives still in NK, uncle a Full Colonel in the KAF, etc.
It laughable that NK will run over and take over SK. Militarily speaking, their conventional forces are poorly equipped, trained, etc. Their only saving grace is their large special forces and tunnels to enter SK and disrupt and destroy our and SK forces from rear. It will be a brutal, bloody war. NK has tens of thousands of artillery and long range mortars built on the reverse slopes pointing towards Seoul.
What's even more laughable is the liberal SK approach and thinking did NOT do anything to make the peninsula any safer. You know that "anti-corruption" president of Korea Ro? After *paying* Kim Jong Il for the privilege of putting on a great charade and have chaebols like the Hyundais pay to bolster the Sunshine Policy, KJI was still thumbing his nose at the world and building nukes. The more tougher approach from the Bush policy allowed us to put KJI on notice that we, the US, would not be blackmailed for aid and that there should be quid pro quo. But what did KJI do? Yes, he kept building nukes.
So thats my point: KJI is an extortionist. He's pissed that we did not fold and give him more food aid, international attention, etc when he launched his missile a few weeks back. Just like a child begging for attention, he set off a nuke. Thats not to say we should minimize his missiles and nukes, he is just interested in self preservation. The architect of Juche idea who was in the Kim inner circle, said so in front of Congress when he defected.
One other thing: someone above mentioned that we should not provide him with food aid and that the people will revolt. I agree on the first point. We should not provide them food or energy aid UNLESS there is verifiable proof that they are complying with...whatever the world community wants it to comply to. Defectors have all said that, at the height of the food aid, the govt would invite the cameras to show food being distributed. But later, the army would pick it right up.
But the presumption that people will revolt is far from any reality. The NKs are brutual to any dissent. I encourage anyone interested in NK politics to read even the excerpts of a book titled "Aquariums of Pyongyang", which was written by a former camp guard. If you even do the smallest thing like throw away a newspaper with KIS or KJI's image into the trash, you can be sent to a gulag. If you try to escape to China and get caught or other "treasonous" acts, 3 generations of your family will be imprisoned. These gulags are brutal. Chemical experiments, rapes, feeding children to dogs, I am not kidding.
So when I hear naive liberals say "why should we, the US, tell other nations they can't build and send satellites into space?" Just read the book above for a dose of reality. The govt there are not good people and that is why we should not acquiesce any longer.
|