I don't make it a practice to use absolutes like "never".
In this case however, my gut tells me the money is "more likely than not" to never be repaid.

GM's 2007 Consolidated financials listed total assets of 149 billion. Lord knows what "New" GM will have as total assets at FMV.
They will never be able to pay it back through dividends. Let's rule that out up front.
What can GM possibly do in the long run to drive up the new stock price high enough (when it becomes available to the public to buy) to let the govt. recover its money by selling its stock to investors in the open market? I don't have any idea.
I don't think it's realistic in the near to mid term (use your own definitions) to expect GM to return to profitability. It'll take much, much longer to have earnings large enough to entice investors to buy back in, imo.
On the contrary, I wonder if the Treasury won't have to continue to prop these companies up further, bankruptcy or not.

The question is, will a 7,500 credit entice enough folks next year to buy a 2010 Chevy Volt at an expected msrp of $35-40,000? What other new cards is GM holding besides the Volt and a new retro Camaro?

I get paid to be a skeptic.I'll be interested to see going forward how GM's auditors handle the "going concern" reporting standards.