About 50 years ago I wrote a term paper in Eco class in which I said that much of Economics is based on what people expect to take place in the future. If you think the your company might lay people off and it would be impossible for you to find another job you will save your money until you feel it is safe to spend it.

I got an 'F' on this paper.

A few years ago a fellow who had been preaching this for years received a Nobel Prize in Economics. But then, who said life is fair?

Too many Econo whizzes are too tied down to the theories they have taught for years since that is all they know. What is the downside for getting it wrong for them? Usually nothing. Ain't tenure grand?

MY predictions for the next few months.....

NOTHING is going to take place as far as business investment goes until after the elections. Every business owner I speak to tells me this. Some are very intense about who should win and others don't care, but they expect changes after this election in...????? They just don't know and it is that unknown factor that keeps them from spending.

But after the elections they are going to do something since there is too much business out there that is not being made. Everyone has told me they are expecting to start hiring and expanding in about January or maybe later.

Expecting is the operative word here. They still don't know what, if anything, they will do.

But they are all planning on spending like crazy this Christmas, and for some that means giving out some serious bonus money, which will lead to more spending.

Let's check back six months from now and see if I am right. But if I am wrong then I can always find something 'unexpected' to blame it on besides the fact that I don't know what I am talking about!

And... When I say there are some business owners in Oklahoma who don't really care who wins the elections... This goes back to a saying by Will Rogers: "The US has the best form of government in the world. The worst politicians can't hurt it, and the best politicians can't help it."