Quote:
Originally Posted by MS Fowler
One of the problems with prognostications is that they generally assume that whatever is going on right now will remain constant. In reality, nothing is constant, except change, and even the rate of that changes.
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That is a very good point.
In the article, they do say "by the current trends" and "if the current trends continue"....
Anyone who has done even the simplest statistical analysis knows that a limited data set does not accurately predict subsequent outcomes.