Originally Posted by mespe

Wow I wish I had your optimism.

fringe economic theory is only fringe until it happens. conspiracy theories are only conmspiracy theories until they are exposed. Sounds like investors are listening to the gold salesmen because gold has closed out the year in positive territory for the last 11 years. Coincidentaly I believe that's about the length of bull markets, so if TA is your bag, then it's time for the gold bubble to burst.

Can you explain to me how you see growth getting back to normal? Who is going to buy the stuff? The economic savy individuals that found themself underwater in their mortgage, simply quit paying the mortgage, and started buying toys with their new found wealth.

There is no such animal as a jobless recovery, because it was a loss of jobs that gives us the problem of high unemployment in the first place. Unless of course, the intended outcome is fewer jobs and higher foreclosures.

What if we get 18% interest rates like in the 80's? picture not so rosy.

I think the housing market is going to recover alot quicker then 5 years, my guess is 2-3 years, when workers start getting two raises a year to keep food on the table, the inflated, or debased dollar, will offset the drop in home prices, making a new home cost 4x that of an older one.

Long term US debt. that's a toughie higher interest rates will bankrupt the USA. devaluation of the dollar will upset China. The fed will work towards a happy median, slowly devaluing the dollar as china dumps it USD holdings. Now should China get PO'd there is no telling what they might do, but realize they will NOT do anything to hirt themselves, as IMHO they are better at the game of chess than the fed is.

Now there could be a curve ball thrown in as Dennis Kucinich winds up the pitch of his latest bill. And with Ron Paul up to bat as the finance committe chairperson, this could be a home run.

The curve ball is "the fringe economic theory" in that all the current debt is transferred to basically a new currency that congress expands at the actual rate of GDP. Since all this new currency is created by the treasury instead of private bankers the problem of never enough money to pay all the debt is gone in a heartbeat. The hyperinflation that convinced congress to pass the bill is gone overnight. The fed is gone. And the full faith and credit of the United States is re-established in it's currency.