Excellent question. The best answer I can give is that I have no idea. This is a confusing subject for me, plus you can't trust anything you read or hear these days.

On the other hand, I am pretty sure that Ryan's numbers have no basis in reality.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/paul-ryans-absurdly-optimistic-budget-projections-draw-widespread-ridicule.php?ref=fpb