Originally Posted by TimFreeh

So in your mind the fact that he had started, but had not completed, an instrument certification bolsters the argument that he wasn't overconfident?

In my mind it does just the opposite, since he apparently started IMC training he should have been well aware of the risks of starting a flight VFR but then having to face the issues of IMC 'on-the-fly'.

The fact that he hit the surface nose-down at 4,700 fpm kind of seals the deal for me - he was either way over his head or as Bot speculates he wasn't watching what he was doing and talking with his passengers.

Both scenarios kinda lead me to the overconfidence theory.