Well, this campaign starts to look like an even bigger circus than the last one. Let's see, On the same day as the USA Today "likely voter poll" (the same that predicted a decisive Dean victory in Iowa) shows both Kerry and Edwards ahead of Bush by as much as 11% (interesting, since only 19% of Democrats stated they would vote for Edwards, but do not let math confuse you), the Rassmussen poll shows Bush ahead by 6%. And as the first poll continues to show Kerry consistently ahead of Bush since Iowa, the second shows that Bush was behind only for a couple of days (Feb. 10-12). What's going on? Well, the democrats are trying to paint Kerry as a sure winner to keep the momentum and the republicans are trying to show it ain't so. Funny, that the USA Today poll came up just after Wisconsin caucus where Kerry barely squeak by Edwards.
Anyway, I find The Gallup poll the most accurate in the last 3 elections, and as of now they cannot make up their minds. However, this is my analysis of the Gallup data:
Essentially, since around July '03, Bush lost 4% of the independent votes and these went directly to Kerry. Here are the basis- the average (by "eyeballing") support of Bush since 2000 was around 55% (taking the "low periods" only) with around 45-47% of independents being positive. At the same time, his match up with Kerry ended up being something like 53% to 44%. The February 10, 2004 poll (quoted in the USA Today article) showed that Bush's approval rating was at 51%, and his matchup with Kerry was 49% Bush, 48% Kerry with 41% of independents going for Bush. Interestingly, Bush had a support of 89-94% of Republicans (it doesn't get any better than this) and about 13-15% of Democrats. This leads me to believe, that as I predicted , about 4-10% of undecided independents will decide this election.
Bush cannot afford to lose any more support, but he is working hard to do just that (the employment predictions are one example). In addition, the Republicans look like the Philadelphia Eagles at Half time of their latest loss- panicked and confused.
Why, I have no idea, because theoretically, they are much stronger. However, after 6 month of incessant pommeling in the press (when was the last time you heard a positive news about Iraq-and there is PLENTY arond- or a republican NOT being shouted over by a liberal host?) it looks, like the Reps and the pres are on the defensive. In other words, it's the 1992 again. Why, I have no idea.
I think Bush can still win if :
1) we actually will pull out of Iraq before the election ("mission accomplished")
2) unemployment will drop below 5% or even 4.5% (it would be difficult to argue about loss of jobs if unemployment falls)
3) we get Osama.
4) (Bonus) the NYSE will reach all time high (what the heck was that, anyway- 11,000??)
Well, feel free to tell me how I'm wrong- I'm sure I'll get it this time from both sides...
