Putin is to Russia as Bush Sr was to USA in 1986. Both were political animals appointed to supposedly dead-end jobs: International espionage. Instead, both used their acumen in international affairs to leverage power: Putin obviously more than Bush I.

Putin is smarter than the present Bush but also far more vulnerable as for governance. If Bush loses, So what? But if Putin loses it could easily cost him his life, or it could set Russia on a course of world-dominance or retreat or anything in-between. Which leader is playing with higher stakes? This is why Bush II cuts Putin so much slack.

Given that, StratFor's prognostications are entirely reasonable.

B