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Originally Posted by Craig
I agree, at the moment. I also agree that current hybrids are only really useful in urban applications. Battery technology is clearly the limiting factor. Also, it probably does not make economic sense for anyone to buy one today. I'm certainly not standing in line to get one, but lots of people are.
Having said all that, I don't know enough about the current state of battery design to say how close the required technology is. I don't know if we are talking about revolutionary, or just evolutionary changes. I do know that there is significant battery R&D going on now. I also remember when my cell phone was the size of a brick and held a charge just about long enough to order a pizza.
What has gotten my attention is the fact that people are actually buying these things. Normally, the is a "chicken and egg" problem with any new technology. You can't get industry interested until there is a market, and you can't get a market until the technology actually works. In this case, there is a market. My guess is that serious money is being spent to make this a viable technology. My personal opinion is that we are maybe 10-15 years away from hybrids being "real" mainstream vehicles. We'll see?
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A Brock Yates column from Car & Driver magazine several months ago quotes some industry sources as stating that hybrids will top out at around 3% of the market. Other sources think that's optimistic.
Your cell phone is an electronic device, and great savings have been made in terms of power requirements. Laptops, too. A car is, at the basic level, a mechanical device. It takes X amount of energy to move Y weight for Z distance at V speed. Not a lot of room for improvements there, other than slowing down, traveling shorter distances, or moving less stuff.