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Originally Posted by Craig
I think I do understand the physics, and you're correct, electronic devices have become more efficient (although my powerbook can start small fires), but small batteries have also improved significantly in the last decade or so.
I don't pretend to know what is going to happen in any industry in 10-15 years. I'm lucky if I know what I'm going to be doing next week. I'm also not really trying to defend current hybrids, I think the design is less than elegant. However, I would not rule out a significant improvement in battery technology driving some version of hybrids to become mainstream in the future. 10-15 years is a LONG time when you are talking about electronics. I have no clue if the 3% value is correct, and I'm sure the industry guys are more qualified to predict this than I.
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Batteries will have to approach the energy storage efficiency of gasoline, and the longevity of the internal combustion engine if they're going to make a dent in the market. IMHO, of course.
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Originally Posted by Craig
I'm still not sure I would buy one anyway.
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You seem like a reasonable guy. What would have to happen for you to seriously consider buying a hybrid, as they exist today? Since we're not going to improve the hybrid technology or reduce the cost for this thought exercise, what would have to change about your personal circumstances to get you into one? For me, a job that required me to drive long distances and paid enough for me to be able to afford to replace the car with a new one every couple years. For personal use where it's not a deductible business expense, I just can't see it. With that in mind, what percentage of
reasonable new car buyers fit the profile? 3% sounds generous to me.
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Originally Posted by Craig
My original comment was based on my surprise that the current hybrids are all based on gas engines. It's not clear to me why a gas/electric hybrid is better than a diesel/electric hybrid. The only thing I can think of is the fact that gas/electric hybrids shutdown the engine and restart it on demand. A diesel/electric would probably have to be left running all the time.
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It may be as you say, but the diesel uses next to no fuel at idle. Without looking it up, air/fuel ratios of 100:1 is the number that comes out of my admittedly foggy memory. My own WAG is that the manufacturers currently selling hybrids just don't have a suitable small diesel engine to use in the application. Plus, the tightening diesel emissions standards are a big technological problem all by themselves. I'd have to say that they didn't want two cutting-edge tecnology problems in the same vehicle. Again, IMHO.