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Originally Posted by Moneypit SEL
Batteries will have to approach the energy storage efficiency of gasoline, and the longevity of the internal combustion engine if they're going to make a dent in the market. IMHO, of course.
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I think I would agree with that, I just don't have a clue when, or if, that may happen.
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Originally Posted by Moneypit SEL
You seem like a reasonable guy. What would have to happen for you to seriously consider buying a hybrid, as they exist today? Since we're not going to improve the hybrid technology or reduce the cost for this thought exercise, what would have to change about your personal circumstances to get you into one? For me, a job that required me to drive long distances and paid enough for me to be able to afford to replace the car with a new one every couple years. For personal use where it's not a deductible business expense, I just can't see it. With that in mind, what percentage of reasonable new car buyers fit the profile? 3% sounds generous to me.
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I'm not sure a hybrid would help if you had to drive long distances at highway speeds because you would be using the gas engine anyway. For that application, I'll just drive my 300D (or maybe a VW TDI). If I needed to commute through stop and go traffic for an hour (i.e., the DC Beltway) I might be tempted (but in reality I would probably just buy a train pass). I believe that stop and go applications (where you spend half your time idling and half you time moving a 10 mph) are the most advantageous for hybrids. Personally, I would look at the numbers and try to determine the payback time based on the cost difference and the mileage difference. I would also try to get a handle on maintenance cost and reliability (although it's probably too early to know). If I lived someplace that lets hybrids use the carpool lane, I would have to consider that as well. To tell you the truth, the numbers would have to pretty overwhelming to get me to buy one today. If they prove themselves to be reliable (and deliver on the promised mileage) over 5 years I might be more likely to give it a try.
Having said all that, I suspect that most people buying them today cannot justify the additional cost based on mileage. I think they have become somewhat "politically correct" and trendy. Driving one seems to make a political statement like, "I care about the environment enough to spend an extra $10,000, just to do my part." The same can be said for most people driving Hummers. What percentage of them can come up with a rational justification? I guess my point is that car buyers are not always "reasonable" and it's difficult to tell what they are going to do. Lastly, we can't forget potential tax breaks for buying hybrids (as well as other high efficiency vehicles).
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Originally Posted by Moneypit SEL
It may be as you say, but the diesel uses next to no fuel at idle. Without looking it up, air/fuel ratios of 100:1 is the number that comes out of my admittedly foggy memory. My own WAG is that the manufacturers currently selling hybrids just don't have a suitable small diesel engine to use in the application. Plus, the tightening diesel emissions standards are a big technological problem all by themselves. I'd have to say that they didn't want two cutting-edge tecnology problems in the same vehicle. Again, IMHO.
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That's as good a reason as I've heard. Maybe if a company with established diesels (VW, MB) decides to do hybrids (for whatever reason) they will go that way. I agree it would be unnecessary to shutdown a small diesel in a hybrid application, which seems like an advantage to me. The engine could continue to power the auxiliaries at low power. Also, I have to believe that continuously stopping and restarting gas engines is going to shorten their life. Being a diesel guy, I think I would be (slightly) more likely to buy a diesel/electric than a gas/electric.
What do you think?