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Originally Posted by Craig
I think I would agree with that, I just don't have a clue when, or if, that may happen.
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Don't feel bad. Nobody else knows, either. That's why I refer to 'yet-unknown' battery technology. Short of finding a revolutionary new method of electrical storage under a rock somewhere, we are pretty much stuck with refinements to existing technology for now. Though the following refers to an electric car, the hybrid shares the same battery technology shortfalls.
About 5 years ago I went to Detroit and spent some time with representatives of several auto manufacturers. At the time, Ford had acquired the company that produced the Think electric car. While waxing eloquent over the design that allowed replacing only the battery cells that failed, I asked the Ford guy how long he thought owners would put up with replacing battery cells every few weeks until all had been replaced? Since all the battery cells would be the same age, cells that had not yet failed would certainly be living on borrowed time. I never got a satisfactory answer to that one, but I did get the Ford rep to admit that everyone at the meeting would be well into retirement before anyone put an electric car on the market that was not subsidized by either higher prices on conventional cars, or in the form of tax breaks. The technology was and is nowhere near the point of standing on its own virtues, and shall remain so for the foreseeable future.
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Originally Posted by Craig
I'm not sure a hybrid would help if you had to drive long distances at highway speeds because you would be using the gas engine anyway. For that application, I'll just drive my 300D (or maybe a VW TDI). If I needed to commute through stop and go traffic for an hour (i.e., the DC Beltway) I might be tempted (but in reality I would probably just buy a train pass). I believe that stop and go applications (where you spend half your time idling and half you time moving a 10 mph) are the most advantageous for hybrids. Personally, I would look at the numbers and try to determine the payback time based on the cost difference and the mileage difference. I would also try to get a handle on maintenance cost and reliability (although it's probably too early to know). If I lived someplace that lets hybrids use the carpool lane, I would have to consider that as well. To tell you the truth, the numbers would have to pretty overwhelming to get me to buy one today. If they prove themselves to be reliable (and deliver on the promised mileage) over 5 years I might be more likely to give it a try.
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Your point about stop-n-go vs. highway driving is well put. I considered that after I had posted, but was too lazy to refine the thought. Perhaps a courier who worked in a large city would be the ideal target. Even then, a VW TDI makes more sense. As it is, when I have to travel, my company picks up the tab.
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Originally Posted by Craig
Having said all that, I suspect that most people buying them today cannot justify the additional cost based on mileage. I think they have become somewhat "politically correct" and trendy. Driving one seems to make a political statement like, "I care about the environment enough to spend an extra $10,000, just to do my part." The same can be said for most people driving Hummers. What percentage of them can come up with a rational justification? I guess my point is that car buyers are not always "reasonable" and it's difficult to tell what they are going to do. Lastly, we can't forget potential tax breaks for buying hybrids (as well as other high efficiency vehicles).
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See above Re: subsidized hybrid sales. As for 'Trendy PC' buyers, they will be joined in their market share by those who bought without thinking. As for Hummers, I have less trouble justifying their existence. Obviously, there's a market for them. While I'd not buy one, I do own a full-size pickup that gets similar fuel...well...'economy' just doesn't seem to fit. I'll just say they're equally thirsty and leave it at that.
And as for the Enviro-wonks, my standard challenge is that I personally have done more to actually improve the environment than they have. Back in my shop days, I did emissions testing and performed emissions repairs. I'm still licensed by the state of Pennsylvania as an Emissions Repair Technician. All that fancy title means is that I was the guy you had to convince if you wanted an emissions waiver...but still. I've yet to meet a 'Greenie' who continued the argument past that point.
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Originally Posted by Craig
That's as good a reason as I've heard. Maybe if a company with established diesels (VW, MB) decides to do hybrids (for whatever reason) they will go that way. I agree it would be unnecessary to shutdown a small diesel in a hybrid application, which seems like an advantage to me. The engine could continue to power the auxiliaries at low power. Also, I have to believe that continuously stopping and restarting gas engines is going to shorten their life. Being a diesel guy, I think I would be (slightly) more likely to buy a diesel/electric than a gas/electric.
What do you think?
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I'd prefer diesel hybrids to gas, but that does not address the shortfalls of existing battery technology. Until and unless that problem is addressed, hybrids are going to remain on the fringe of the market.