Tesla Model 3 for longevity?
 

Now that most of the Mercedes diesels built in the 80's are at the end of their useful lives, what do you diesel heads think about the upcoming Tesla Model 3? The electric drivetrain is a simple design that has less than 20 moving parts. The cost of fuel is 1/3 the cost of gasoline. It is purported to go 0-60 mph in 5.6 seconds. At $35 with a $10K tax credit in most fed and states, you have a slick car that cost $25,000 that could last a million miles. Discuss!

I wouldn't say they'll last 1M miles. Maybe in theory, but in actual practice, I doubt it. The build quality of the previous models has been shocking to say the least (especially for such expensive vehicles), it is one of the biggest knocks against the Tesla brand. In their defense, it takes any manufacturer a while to work the bugs out and they have been trying.

The biggest issue is the cost of that fuel. Right now it's 1/3 the cost of gasoline. What happens when everyone else jumps on the electric car bandwagon? With our grid infrastructure already strained with our current loads, it simply isn't going to cope with everyone on the block charging their Tesla in the garage every night. Without any new base-load power plants coming online (wind and solar are considered "peakers"), don't expect the status-quo to change any time soon.

The other biggie - that battery pack. Not cheap, doesn't last forever, and talk about an environmental nightmare both to build AND to recycle!

Electric cars are a great idea (and were around BEFORE internal combustion engine powered cars, but that's another discussion), they have very real uses and provide very real pollution reduction, but they are not the panacea that they're made out to be.

I do like the simplicity of the drivetrain. Tesla is probably one of the best new cars on the market. It's nice that electric power plants are being explored. But, it's not retro-looking enough for my taste, I guess. I'd probably want it to be even simpler and with different styling. I also like the sound of my diesel engine.

It's not bad for a new car, but I don't have any desire to own one over the car I currently have.

I will race a model 3 from san Diego to san Francisco any time with my 70-ish hp 190D N/A. Let see who get there first. I am sure all internal combustion engine cars will be phased out eventually. Hopefully it is still a long time away.

Ah, an EV thread on a die hard diesel forum...

So many untrue myths when it comes to EVs that I see time and time again. Charging a national EV fleet at night isn't a problem, night time is when when there's the least load on the grid (at the moment). Charging software can control when to turn charging on and off and it's possible to use EV batteries as grid storage for peaks if the owner wishes.
Li-ion battery longevity is hell of a lot better than most think, a Model S got to 200,000 miles with only a 6% capacity loss! People always bring up how bad producing batteries is for the environment, ignoring of course the oil refining industry in its entirety. Then there's the old "EVs still burn coal", so burning hydrocarbons at 30% peak thermal efficiency in very limited circumstances with an ICE vehicle is better..../s


A new EV? Not for me. I hope to convert a W123 to electric though (using Leaf parts perhaps).

I also see a lot of myths about electric vehicles floating around the internet.

1/3 the cost? To charge a 60 kw/hr battery pack at standard USA electric rates would cost about $7.80 today. The Model 3 has an advertised range of 235 miles, and I'd be willing to bet it might be able to get that if its used exclusively in its 'sweet spot' of performance IE shorter trips in a city/suburban environment. People that are using Teslas and other EV on longer-range and higher speed drives are not going to get anywhere near 235 mile range. Think a Model 3 driving on an interstate highway at 80MPH when its at sub-freezing temps is going to go 235 miles? Would you want to use the last 50 miles of range if you're driving in a rural environment at night? Not likely.

Also keep in mind that the $7.80 to go 235 miles doesn't currently include a penny of federal or state road tax. If we wanted to be fair we'd have to include the costs that the diesel drivers are currently paying for road use tax into the equation right? That's currently somewhere around .35-.50 cents per gallon depending on where you live.

A Model 3 sized car with a modern CDI engine would return at least 45-50 MPG. Assuming the lower end 45MPG and current diesel fuel cost of $2.30 per gallon it would cost me around $12 for the trip. With the electric car it would be $7.80 for the juice + $2.15 for road tax or around $10.

It's less but not really all that much less, and you'd have to be willing to put up with some pretty significant limitations and inconveniences that don't exist with the CDI vehicle.

I've also read about the Model S that went 200K miles and only lost 6% of its battery capacity due to battery fade. Of course Li-on battery life lifecycle is a well-understood issue and if you use the standard charge/discharge expected cycle life you'll find that at about 150K miles the battery packs should be down to about 60% capacity. Everything I've ever bought/used that has a Li-on battery pack has exhibited the exact same battery fade issues as the charge/discharge cycles add up. Not really sure why Teslas are apparently immune to this issue but apparently they are? I'd like to hear more about how Elon has side-stepped the physics of battery fade. If he has he should license and sell the technology to iPhone battery makers and cordless tool battery makers because that technology would truly be 'disruptive'.

As far as your EV's, coal and 30% thermal efficiency modern CDI internal combustion engine argument I suggest you do a bit more research about the thermal efficiency of modern power plants vs modern CDI engines. They are pretty much identical.

If the Model 3 is such a game changer and its disruptive technology how come the Chevy Volt which has the exact same specifications and costs as the Model 3 is languishing on the sales floor?

I have a friend who owns the standard and expensive Tesla. He has been very happy with the build quality of the car; says it is about the best he has ever owned. However he has to plan all of his out of town trips around the locations of charging stations.

That seems to be his major gripe.

Our model 3 is scheduled to arrive Q2 of 2018. Just in time to replace the Kia EV lease. Once you've owned an EV for a while theres really no going back. Its so much cheaper and easier to own than anything with an internal combustion engine over the long run. its a real shame Mercedes has failed to deliver a real EV so far.
Let me know when your 190D has autopilot. I've got a few good movies lined up for the drive.

This has been the fear mongering talk for decades. Our electricity use has DECREASED due to advancements in technology. Don't live in fear.

Because it's a POS GM car. There's about 50 ways I can expand on that. There are currently over 400,000 Model 3's on pre-order (deposit paid customers). Gm will NEVER sell 400k Volts ever in their lives.


And as far as your charging math though - where are you, the Communist State of CA? Those numbers I'm seeing you post look like ~.10/KWh. National average for off-peak is significantly less. And then there's Teslas Superchargers and any other public use chargers that may be available.

I was just chatting with a snow bird with a new Quattroporte, "I can't spend $100K on a car that doesn't sound like a Maserati." Do Teslas mind not moving for half a year?

x2 to electrifying our rides. Someone make a battery the size and weight of a 617 and a motor that slips into a 722.3. Optional WVO range extender that fits into the fuel tank.

Sixto
98 E320s sedan and wagon

Really? I don't want to have my head chopped off. If i want to watch DVD, I would fly. I am not getting an EV vehicle any time soon so I will sign off.

Can you tell me the (about) 50 ways the Bolt EV is a POS?

There are more than 370,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 (Motor Trend, July 8, 2017) not over 400,000.

Musk himself said in the beginning the cars will be heavily optioned and will cost much more.

The cost of the supercharger network is built into the Model S price and it's been reported that for the Model 3 to use that network, it will be an option that will cost thousands extra.

I think the people that put down $1000 believe they are getting a $80,000 Model S for under $30K with rebates. I expect many of those deposits to be refunded when people realize that.

The Model 3 has a range of 215 (also Motor Trend, July 8, 2017), the Bolt is 235.

California electric rates are higher but We have a very clean power grid.

*sigh*

Actually our electric usage has INCREASED due to population increase and more usage of electric powered tools, electronics, and machinery. The problem is that the grid is NOT increasing in size or capacity, quite the opposite. They keep closing "dirty" power plants, but not replacing that capacity with anything considered as a "base load".

For what it's worth, I live in Texas which has one of the lowest electric rates in the country. The electric rate is only 6.5¢/KWh, but when you add in the taxes, line fees, administration fees, and other crap that's attached to your bill, guess what - 10¢/KWh. Check YOUR math and find out what you're doing wrong. Throw out any "rebates" or other con games and tell us what your electric rate REALLY is.

Um... diesel?

Month of May 2017, I used 1273 KWh. My total bill was $147. Thats ~11.4 cents per KW/h. My power company is a co-op, and my bill does not specify any rates, but they do have a dedicated EV program:

https://www.jacksonemc.com/home-manage-my-account/residential-rates/residential-plug-electric-vehicle-service-schedule-apev-17

They'll do just fine as long as you leave them plugged into the grid. Remember Li-on batteries require heating and cooling to keep the batteries happy, as I recall a Tesla parked in a garage and not driven 1 inch requires 4-6kw/hr per day in energy usage just to sit there.

Pretty close to the national average which I think is .12 kw/hr which I think is what I used for my calculations

Bolt is a PITA to charge...
 

Well, the most important issue with the Bolt is that it takes forever to charge. It is impractical to take it on a road trip. Who wants a car that can only travel 235 when there is no charging network? And style, who wants a Bolt when you can drive a Tesla Model 3? The base price of a Model 3 will be comparable to the BMW 3 Series (which 2016 sales were down 25% in 2016! as consumers wait for the M3), Mercedes C Class and the Audi 4 and fuel is 1/3 the cost with a drivetrain that will last exponentially longer. I think this is a huge game changer which is what the stock market is telling us. Ford and GM's stock price has been going down for 4 years while car sales have been in record territory the last few years. A disruptive change is going to come whether you personally will welcome the change.

No charging network? I looked on PlugShare.com and there are fast charging stations all over Connecticut.

There is a balance between charging rate and battery longevity. Batteries charged slower last longer. Model 3 batteries may charge faster than the Bolt EV but they probably won't last as long. The Tesla and the public fast charging network charge rates are't all that different.

The Bolt and the Model 3 are city commuter cars. At these current miles per charge neither is a good road trip car.

TimFreeh: Can you please reference where you found the Tesla will loose 4-6000 watts per day? That's a huge amount. All I've found on the internet is 3-6 miles per day and that should be somewhere about 1000 watts, plus or minus.

Has anyone commenting here owned an electric car?

dcraigk, what about the all important cost and speed of charging on plugshare? Again charging speed and cost are primary issues.

You were talking about the Bolt EV on a road trip. My mentioning PlugShare was only about using the fast charging network when on a road trip. Most of the time you should be plugging in at home with a 240V home charger.

Perhaps a used Model S for $40k is the way to go as you get free fuel for life.

I've seen a LOT of Tesla 4-door sedans here in Arizona--mostly in the Scottsdale area. It seems that 1/4 of the cars on the road are Teslas there (and the rest are Mercedes, Maseratis, and Land Rovers).

What's interesting is that in the po-dunk town of Buckeye (off the freeway connecting Phoenix to Los Angeles), there is a big Tesla charging station at the Carl's Jr. I used to deliver Propane out there because they don't have access to natural gas and everyone uses propane for heating and cooking. But they have a big Tesla charging station.
http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/...y-imag1108.jpg

I remember 20 years ago when the mood of being in a 'remote' location was ruined by a passing UPS truck. Now I regularly see Teslas (but no other EVs) on I-5 in the Central Valley and the 108/120 to Yosemite. They're charging somewhere. I'm sure I'll see a Tesla towing [electric] jet skis soon. Or with skis headed for Tahoe in winter.

Sixto
98 E320s sedan and wagon

I recently developed a small three story office building in Atlanta. Put two free charging stations in it.

My roommate works at the Sprouts Farmers Market support office in Scottsdale, Arizona and the parking garage has charging stations.

Ive been interested in the 3. That and a battery wall would be ideal. Charge the car and house off peak. Two hours of active power use in the morning and five or six in the afternoon then charge off peak.

Some people are awfully desperate to find any negatives to EVs in general, Teslas in particular. It's cute in a sad, pathetic sort of way. I guess the same thing happened toward the end of horse and buggy days.
http://hamilton.ilgw.org/images/photos/ham0007.jpg

Amen! It's the inevitable. Don't get me wrong, I love diesels, but EVs just make so much sense.

(hopefully hydrogen dies off quietly)

Battery techonology is getting better every single year. No doubt Tesla has the latest and greatest cell chemistry going in their cars. I can't quite remember but normally battery warranties are to 80% of original capacity after 100,000 or 150,000 miles or whatever


No doubt CDI is efficient, but remember an ICE is hardly ever run under ideal circumstances (stop start, idling, running accessories). How much fuel goes to waste every year just idling the world's engines? It would be millions of litres...

electric motors will need maint. too,or get to the point of junking vehicle.Solar Flare,Gamma ray burst,or nukes could rend them undrivable.An Old diesel with out electronics,fuel could be made.

You still need an electric motor to crank that non electronic diesel.

I won't predict long-term reliability because I thought the Prius would be a problem w/ battery life and replacement cost, but they seem to have exceeded most expectations. The Tesla Li-ion batteries do seem more questionable. Sure you can make an electric car by stacking a bunch of laptop PC batteries (original Tesla), but not very practical. The Model 3 is a different model w/ custom battery design and manufacturing, but Li-ion still worries me. I have several laptop PC's whose batteries only last 2 min now so must always run on the AC adapter. Replacement batteries are $150, so not worth fixing.

Re range and re-charging, how far does it go if you run the AC and/or travel into a head-wind? Tesla no longer offers free charging. They said it will cost "less than filling up a gas car", which sounds possibly quite expensive. Where I live, as your home electrical use goes up you are charged Tier II rates, which are almost double. I strive to stay in Tier I, and couldn't with an EV. People in rentals (~50% population?) can't easily install home charging. If you rely on a charger at work, what happens if you get laid-off? With public chargers, you risk getting there and finding all stations occupied. My wife took a short trip in her friend's Tesla. It was an adventure. They first had to drive 16 mi in the opposite direction to charge charge 20 min for enough to make the 50 mi trip, then 40 min charging there to drive her home, then more charging for her friend to get back to the Bay. Kind of like the early pioneers venturing out in Model T's.

Sixto! Tell your friend to install a sound sytem!!!
 

""I can't spend $100K on a car that doesn't sound like a Maserati."

What? Can't this person find an outlet for a KILLER stereo system?!? With proper installation, even a Tesla can be made to sound like

-an F4 Phantom
-a steam calliope
-a haybailer
-a AA/FA Fueler

Sounds to me like they are just making excuses. Get the Tesla, install the sound system, and turn the sound up to 11!
Just be certain to install the speakers on the OUTSIDE of the car.

Done.

Cheers!

snapped_bolt

Refine the fuel industry for more energy independence, cleaner environment. We need better infrastructure because it sucks as it is. EV's are a bandaid, and could be a trojan-horse effort to get us all dependent on the grid. Then they can jack up the rates, as they see fit, and there will be NO competition. So we will ALL be forced to pay out, or choose to walk. All old vehicles will be made ILLEGAL for on-road use. Planned obsolescence.

I'm sure it's all planned out. You participate in this current EV nonsense, you're providing for the funding of a New World Order.

EVs are not promising and do cheat out on taxes (at the moment). The not promising is due to individual power companies dictating power rates as they wish.

Didnt we see that in nevada some time ago, one of elon musks companies got shot down by warren buffet just by changing a law/regulation in that state.

how would you like it - if suddenly your power rates are jacked up 100% and you are taxed for road use of your electric car, suddenly the free roaming car wont look so cheap anymore.

If there is a plan to sprout up zillions of solar independant charging stations (like gas stations) - then it can be plausible - but being a corporate economy, you will see new regulations/laws being laid down to control such freedom.



as example I have lived in countries where CNG was used as "clean and cheap fuel" - after seeing literally millions of filling stations opened up, NG prices went up for everyone, including the guy who walks to work. (demand and supply)

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lx9jb1SPMr1qdrpdr.gif
Have you heard of the petroleum industry for the last century?

Nothing's perfect, bro.

I think by 'cheat on taxes' you actually mean 'our tax system is so entirely, completely ****ed that they tax the hell out of us on multiple fronts whenever possible'. There's absolutely no reason whatsoever to pay a 'road and use' tax. The federal, state & local governments need to collect X dollars of tax revenue to pay for government services (including building & maintaining roads. Why can't these revenue sources be completely streamlined? The FairTax would eliminate dozens of separate taxes. There's simply no reason for it to be this complicated.

So, in essence - you can look at the current EV lack of road use tax as a giant F*CK YOU to the government.

Cranking up either of those four options to 11 would more than likely reduce the 235 mile range to closer to 230 miles.

I dont know where you got your idea from but globally, road tax is collected through fuel sales as the vehicles using the roads are going to be buying fuel. This fuel can be anything and in the future this fuel will be "electricity".

I would like to see you do a giant "FU" and refuse to pay this new fuel tax.. Infact you can do it right now - buy a diesel mercedes and just fill it up with agricultural red diesel. No road tax to pay on that. The only reason your land is lax on this avenue is because EVs are a needle in the haystack, once EVs become the haystack - the game will be changed, including rules/laws/taxes.

as I mentioned above, I worked for about 5 years in places where different fuels were being introduced and every single one hurt and had problems. Introduce CNG and after a year everyones gas bill is shot through the roof. introduce LPG and suddenly LPG costs 200% - even for the rural dweller. In this case - introduce EVs and you bet electricity will be expensive, and to make a segregated tax system for them they would have to introduce more point of failures (like tracking mileage)

As cars get smaller along with their Combustion engines Im a betting man to say a single seater is in the works for those commutters who transit back and forth to work alone ,an Ultra go cart with better mpg than a smart but with looks .Two wheels only and is called the BLART,TURBO series ,the FART.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrzGaK4p_1M

How exactly is the big bad gubmebt taxing the " fuel" coming out of the solar panels on my roof?

EVs need to pay road tax based on miles traveled which is what Oregon and a few other states are experimenting with.

Yeah you're just way too smart to ever let the government fool you. Of course since a Tesla is basically a rolling data collection device that downloads all its "autopilot" data into Elon's cloud I'm betting he'd be willing to share exactly how many miles you've driven with any government official that wants to see it. At least after Trump is gone.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/the-tesla-advantage-1-3-billion-miles-of-data

Yeah I know. Thats exactly what I just said.
So again, how exactly is the big bad scawy gubment going to tax the "fuel" from the solar panels on my roof?

The whole premise of a "fuel tax" on EVs is dumb. Electricity can come from any number of sources especially if a vehicle is charged at home. The only practical way to make EVs pay for the roads we all use is through a mileage tax which I support completely.

After a complete audit is completed on the existing funding. Throw some skimmers in prison.

Fuel taxes are crazy as is tax decals for big rigs. That money is not making it to where it was intended.

Mileage tax is not the answer either.

Have you seen the electricity meter on your house? - Your hands will be tied when legislation enforces this very act and an addtional solar panel meter will report to "big bad gubmint" - dont underestimate big corp.

using the fuel tax example you gave, for ICE diesel vehicles on road, they can just fill up with red diesel - its the same result, you dont pay road tax on it. (till the cops write you up)

the "till the cops write you up" is very near for EVs.

OR

you can build your own roads with your own coin and drive on them as you please.

There is a unique problem in the horizon.. in some countries this data will be demanded by law to ticket/fine the driver of the car if he/she broke the speed limit, did an illegal lane change, running red light/stop sign by accident etc etc etc.

Wont be a nice day when you check your mailbox and find that your car ratted you out to the cops and half your paycheck is earmarked for the fines. :D