First time I've seen it: Diesel over $4 - a lot over!!! - Page 4 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

#46 03-10-2008, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theo3000

I'll take that bet. Politicians won't get re-elected if fuel gets much higher, so they'll regulate the price to stay in office. Americans' priorities are differen't from Europeans'.

Nope, even they understand that U.S. energy prices are too low and that the resulting economic/political issues are more serious than Bubba putting gas in the pick-up. The best they will do is try to control the rate of increase. This isn't an issue that people vote on, have you heard it mentioned in any of the presidential campaigning?

theo3000 · #47 03-10-2008, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig

...have you heard it mentioned in any of the presidential campaigning?

Not yet, but we will.

pawoSD · #48 03-10-2008, 10:13 AM

I bet all the yearly interest the USA pays to China for our national debt funds the money pool they use to subsidize cheap fuel to their population. Ironic circle isn't it?

We are paying China money that they can then use to give out cheap fuel....and thus use more....and thus raise our prices even higher due to demand. Crazy stuff.

#49 03-10-2008, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawoSD

I bet all the yearly interest the USA pays to China for our national debt funds the money pool they use to subsidize cheap fuel to their population. Ironic circle isn't it?

We are paying China money that they can then use to give out cheap fuel....and thus use more....and thus raise our prices even higher due to demand. Crazy stuff.

The "problem" with china is that their energy consumption is going to increase enormously in the next couple of decades, they have over 4 times the population of the U.S., and their economy is currently growing at over 10 percent. It's not that their economy is dependent on the U.S., it's the other way around. If china crashes, we are all going to have problems, if/when they approach western per-capita energy consumption, the cost of energy is going way up. Either way, the tail isn't going to wag the dog. If the west is smart (unlikely), they will start selling alternative energy technologies to china (and india) before their fossil fuel consumption gets close to western levels. Things will get very interesting in about 20 years.

LUVMBDiesels · #50 03-10-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdvisorGuy

Amazing that there's no "shortage" for then to explain away the prices but they're recording record earnings for almost the last 3 years....

Exactly... Last time we had a spike like this the Arabs cut off our supply of oil. This time we are swimming in the stuff... Take alook at the tank farms in NJ. They are all BRIM FULL... just waiting for the prices to go up even higher before they open the valves...

pawoSD · #51 03-10-2008, 10:29 AM

I've always wondered about supply, a lot of OPEC countries do not report their reserves or anything, so who knows if suddenly the top producers dramatically fell in production. That'd cause a huge problem, and it could essentially happen at any time.

Knightrider966 · #52 03-10-2008, 10:32 AM

With so many made in China labels, you have to shop around hard to avoid sending them any more money, but it can be done!

As far as regulation goes, I can't think of a worse scenario than the long gas lines of the 1970's making a comback.

No one wants to even consider the one silver bullet that will work, mandatory population growth controls! We live on a finite planet with finite resources and if we want a better world for our children, then maybe we should be breeding less of them, a rather unpopular view.

Price controls are an easier way to claim your doing something while patting your self on the back for doing a great job!

#53 03-10-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawoSD

I've always wondered about supply, a lot of OPEC countries do not report their reserves or anything, so who knows if suddenly the top producers dramatically fell in production. That'd cause a huge problem, and it could essentially happen at any time.

IIRC, last week (or the previous week) OPEC announced that they were not going to increase output at this time and that they didn't plan on meeting again until september, implying that their production will not increase until then (at least). I'm sure that news drove a lot of speculation that bid the price of crude up to $105. There is a lot of money to be made if you are on the right side of this little game.

Knightrider966 · #54 03-10-2008, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig

IIRC, last week (or the previous week) OPEC announced that they were not going to increase output at this time and that they didn't plan on meeting again until september, implying that their production will not increase until then (at least). I'm sure that news drove a lot of speculation that bid the price of crude up to $105. There is a lot of money to be made if you are on the right side of this little game.

Which is why i'm invested in oil futures and use biodiesl!

Hatterasguy · #55 03-10-2008, 01:04 PM

Diesel jumped from $3.97 to $4.04 overnight. At this rate its going to hit the magic $5 mark before the end of the month.

I have been saying for years that $5 is the magic number, people will start to change at that price point. No one is going to be lining up to get crappy SUV's thats for sure.

Hatterasguy · #56 03-10-2008, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig

The "problem" with china is that their energy consumption is going to increase enormously in the next couple of decades, they have over 4 times the population of the U.S., and their economy is currently growing at over 10 percent. It's not that their economy is dependent on the U.S., it's the other way around. If china crashes, we are all going to have problems, if/when they approach western per-capita energy consumption, the cost of energy is going way up. Either way, the tail isn't going to wag the dog. If the west is smart (unlikely), they will start selling alternative energy technologies to china (and india) before their fossil fuel consumption gets close to western levels. Things will get very interesting in about 20 years.

That would be smart.

I just hope that we can drop consumption enough to prevent any major problems. Maybe Bush has the right idea, lets start attacking countries with lots of oil so we can control everything.

So evil...

turbodeezl · #57 03-10-2008, 01:51 PM

I am going back to the 5-speed TDI, but wanted to wait for the new model release later this year so I could save more on a used model. 50mpg, nothing touches it!

#58 03-10-2008, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

Diesel jumped from $3.97 to $4.04 overnight. At this rate its going to hit the magic $5 mark before the end of the month.

I have been saying for years that $5 is the magic number, people will start to change at that price point. No one is going to be lining up to get crappy SUV's thats for sure.

I hope you are correct, but I suspect the "magic number" is significantly higher. I do think you will start to see some changes at $5, but I don't think it will be drastic.

Most of the folks buying those SUVs are pretty "inelastic" consumers. Say you drive your 15 mpg SUV 15K miles per year at $3/gallon, thats $3000 per year ($250/month, $8/day). If the fuel cost increase to $5/gallon, we are talking about $5000 per year ($415/month, $14/day). I just don't see too many folks changing their behavior over $6/day (coffee money).

I do think the used market will take a hit, but that may just encourage folks to keep their SUVs longer because they are harder to get rid of. Over time the new market will take a hit, but I think it will take a while (5 years maybe).

pawoSD · #59 03-10-2008, 02:56 PM

Every time I see (several times per day) some rich soccer mom bringing her daughter somewhere in their extra extra large 2008 GMC Suburban, Escalade, or Yukon XL etc...I feel like shooting out their tires. Why do you need a 19 foot long 7000lb 12 mpg vehicle to bring your daughter places. Insanity. Its almost like the people who can afford to waste a lot (not all those people, but a large amount of them) take it as far as they can and waste endlessly.

I agree on most SUV owners being inelastic customers. Gas will always be a "small" cost to them on a yearly basis, even if it was $10 per gallon.

But then there are the people that can't afford to drive an SUV, but do as a status symbol. I went through a drive through yesterday (only got some fries!) and the guy in front of me in his 2002 Expedition TURNED IT OFF while he was ordering! ha! Started it again when he had to move forward to the window. He must be feeling the pump pain.

turbodeezl · #60 03-10-2008, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pawoSD

Every time I see (several times per day) some rich soccer mom bringing her daughter somewhere in their extra extra large 2008 GMC Suburban, Escalade, or Yukon XL etc...I feel like shooting out their tires. Why do you need a 19 foot long 7000lb 12 mpg vehicle to bring your daughter places. Insanity. Its almost like the people who can afford to waste a lot (not all those people, but a large amount of them) take it as far as they can and waste endlessly.

I agree on most SUV owners being inelastic customers. Gas will always be a "small" cost to them on a yearly basis, even if it was $10 per gallon.

But then there are the people that can't afford to drive an SUV, but do as a status symbol. I went through a drive through yesterday (only got some fries!) and the guy in front of me in his 2002 Expedition TURNED IT OFF while he was ordering! ha! Started it again when he had to move forward to the window. He must be feeling the pump pain.

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