Displacing small 3rd world farmers with huge, mechanized, GMO agri-biz is not my idea of useful progress.

OTOH, maybe I could get a concession for sheet metal near some of the shanty towns in Latin America. Make lemonade instead of griping.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

I agree completely and that's one reason the ignorant attitudes about girl's education in hardcore Islamic societies, Afg. for example, is so unfortunate.

Not to toot my own horn too much, but after I happened to meet Geo. Schultz at that Palo Alto mansion in progress in '98, I was thinking, 'Geo. was only too happy to focus $$millions on Nic. to get rid of the Sandinistas, I wonder what he's done in the constructive realm since then for that impoverished country.' But then the thought hit, 'what the hell have YOU done, cmackers?'

Not long after that I saw one of those ads for sponsoring the education of a third world child and I sent my money in specifying it for a girl in Nicaragua. It was with Childreach, affiliated with Plan, International, the same group that was featured in the Jack Nicholson movie, "About Schmidt."

The girl, Griselda, was 6 at the time, 14 now. About twice a year, I get a letter from her, written in her own hand in Spanish and translated by someone, probably in country.

She's a sweet kid -- I send her paper and colored pencils, backpacks, soccer balls, etc., and she thanks me for them. She wants to be a lawyer and now I'm scrambling to see if I could actually finance her college. Hopefully, there are some decent schools in, oh, Costa Rica that I could afford. Not sure what universities in Nicaragua (if any) are like.

It ain't much but I'm reminded of an old saying, "Be careful what you do, because you can only do a little."

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

True

Not true. Per UN stats, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the number of children an average female will give birth to, has been dropping steadily around the world, and the rate of decline is increasing (there's a derivative function in there I'm not describing well). This is largely due to increased prosperity and, most of all, increasing rates of education for women. TFR in Europe fell below the 2.1 replacement rate in the 70s/80s, hence the predictions that indigenous Euro-populations will shrink, requiring immigration from Africa and the Middle East to do the continent's grunt work and support the retirement benefits of the various welfare states. What wasn't expected is that TFR is declining in a lot of countries where it wasn't expected to; Iran, for instance, reported replacement level TFR a couple of years ago, meaning its population will stop growing within a decade or two. Peak global population is projected to occur sooner, and at a much lower level, than the UN was predicting even five years ago. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but they're analyzed in detail by Ben Wattenberg in his book "Fewer", published in 2004.

Mexico also reported a decline in TFR. From a Wall Street Journal article on 4/28, "Smaller families in Mexico may stir US job market":

"Thanks to a decades-long family-planning campaign, most Mexicans are having far fewer children than was typical a generation ago...in 1968, the average Mexican woman had nearly seven children. Today, the figure is just above two, comparable to the U.S.

This sweeping demographic shift has fostered hope that someday Mexico will produce a healthy middle class...Most Mexicans today are far too poor for luxuries..But the new, smaller Mexican family may help change that by allowing parents to invest more in their children's education, finally producing the generation that lifts Mexico into the developed world.

Mexico's new demographics could have a big impact on the U.S. Although the flood of Mexicans heading north is whipping up debate in Washington, the crossings may slow in future decades. That could happen simply because smaller families limit the pool of potential migrants. A slowdown would be especially likely if a growing middle class makes more Mexicans comfortable at home and averse to risking a dash across the border.

A reduction in the supply of cheap Mexican labor would be sure to have ripple effects on the U.S. economy. It could raise costs for employers as they searched for immigrant labor from more distant places such as Asia. If, as some contend, the current flood of immigrants is hurting lower-skilled native-born Americans, the easing of the flood might help them."

If Mexican TFR is now at replacement levels, the pressure to migrate will diminish. The illegal immigration problem may cure itself - though only after a couple of more decades.

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81 300SD
08 MDX Tech
93 525i

05 F650GS

hmmmm, I've heard that data on fertility rates before...

And Cmackers, I do embrace modernity. That's why I took a plane to Japan rather than a ship and a plane to MD rather than a donkey. It was still a godawful longggggggg ride.

If I had my druthers I'd take the train to MD. I think that's the best form of transport.

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-livin' in the terminally flippant zone

I like some modernity. I too, am burnt out on airplane travel. It was exciting the first, maybe 10 times, but after I flew to and from NYC in '01, I'd had my fill. And the security stuff since then is one more irritant. Then I found out that 3 people in a decently efficient car use less energy per passenger mile.

Since then, I've done 4 or 5, I forget, round trips to Washington state in my Bimmer with riders I found on Craigslist. Most every trip, my gas costs were about zero. Of course, there's wear and tear and maintenance but I had the use of my car instead of having to borrow my brother in law's gynormous Ford PU. It was kinda fun doing the road trip thing again. Some of the trips were a real pleasure -- and the youngsters get a kick out of driving a Bimmer.

Plus, I get to stop and have breakfast at my favorite hippie cafe of all time: Eugene's Keystone Cafe.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

That is good news. I suspect that my previous assertion -- that Mexicans are leaving Mexico because of too many people and not enough land -- is a bit simplistic. Probably more true in Africa, and I urge you to check out that link. OH MAH GHOD....

I imagine corruption and generally more primitive levels of education and industry have a lot to do with Mexico's struggling lower classes.

Today on NPR's All Things Considered was a piece about Mexican towns that are struggling to keep men at home. Many of these communities are disproportionately female. Could well be many men could make it there but can't resist the siren call of a much faster route to prosperity. Can be heard here.

Still, word I've heard is that California will absorb a population equivalent to the size of San Jose every 18 months at current rates. Not sure I'm going to like living in ColleeFORnya with double the current population. Traffic and air pollution are bad enough as it is.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

Good Lord, it's hard to pull your leg.

I was merely trying to alert you of some activity on your thread that was all but dead and buried. First of all, it wasn't your premise, it was Nicholas Eberstadt's, and while I guess there is something of value there, one of his central points -- that rising populations are due as much or more to sharply lower mortality rates as they are to rising birth rates is, I'm sorry, a "Well, duhhh" moment. The piece is long on fluff and hyperbole and short on useful information or thinking.

Nicholas Eberstadt, of the American Enterprise Institute



The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is an extremely influential, pro-business right-wing think tank founded in 1943 by Lewis H. Brown. It promotes the advancement of free enterprise capitalism, and succeeds in placing its people in influential governmental positions. It is the center base for many neo-conservatives.

In 1986, the Olin and Smith Richardson foundations withdrew their support from AEI because of substantive disagreement with certain of its policies, causing William Baroody, Jr. to resign in the ensuing financial crisis. Following criticism by conservatives that the AEI was too centrist, it moved its programme further to the right and became more aggressive in pursuing its public policy goals. [2] (http://www.mediatransparency.org/recipientprofile.php?recipientID=19)

More recently, it has emerged as one of the leading architects of the Bush administration's foreign policy. AEI rents office space to the Project for the New American Century, one of the leading voices that pushed the Bush administration's plan for "regime change" through war in Iraq. AEI reps have also aggressively denied that the war has anything to do with oil.

Noteworthy members and alumni: Robert Bork, Lynn Cheney, George Schultz, Jeane Kirkpatrick, Newt Gingrich, Richard Perle, Dick Cheney, Ken Lay, Antonin Scalia.

From Sourcewatch.org.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K