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-   -   Question for the folks that want to close our borders... (http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/showthread.php?t=156523)

Botnst 06-22-2006 11:55 AM
China will become increasingly interesting as the billion people move from farms to city, living condition disparity increases between the educated and inustrialized vs rural immigrants to the cities, demands of the educated for power presses the government, and competition from other asian nations increases.

I predict a bloody-ass couple of decades of largely internal strife beginning about 5-15 years hence. If you look at the history of China they have occassionally entered into fratricidal dissolution, sometimes for long periods of time before a new power structure emerges. What is interesting this time is Maoist re-education tried to undermine Confuscism, which has been the glue binding Chinese for thousands of years.

The Chinese government will do like all countries do when the people are restive--blame it on external forces outside their control. Like we're doing in this thread.

Bot

Maroon 300D 06-22-2006 12:14 PM
Are Chinese Universities really that good? How come they keep sending people over here? My understanding is that the vast majority of the world's best universities are in the U.S., and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

And what will happen when Chinese children grow up? Most families over there have just one child due to government policy. That means that in 20 years, your average married couple could have as many as eight elderly relatives to take care of. Think it's gonna be tough on us when the so-called baby boomers retire? Imagine what it will be like in China!

Botnst 06-22-2006 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroon 300D
Are Chinese Universities really that good? How come they keep sending people over here? My understanding is that the vast majority of the world's best universities are in the U.S., and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

And what will happen when Chinese children grow up? Most families over there have just one child due to government policy. That means that in 20 years, your average married couple could have as many as eight elderly relatives to take care of. Think it's gonna be tough on us when the so-called baby boomers retire? Imagine what it will be like in China!
The one-child policy has resulted in unequal gender distribution. As the babies reach reproductive age there will be many males unable to find a mate. In human history, just as in the biology of all organisms, this results in increased male aggression. This will increase instability in China concomitant with the increase wealth disparity (rich folks get the mates, too) and pressure on the dictatorship for more power to the expanding middleclass.

BENZ-LGB 06-22-2006 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlomon
This is not as true as you think, and will be changing rapidly in the very near future. Read the book "China Inc." by Ted Fishman and prepare to be damn near terrified of the economic threat that China poses not only to the US but to the entire first world.

There isn't anything that any first world country can manufacture that China can't eventually manufacture better and cheaper. Every time we first-worlders marvel how inexpensively we can purchase just about anything now, its because the Chinese are driving the market and taking manufacturing jobs from the US, Canada, Europe, and just about every one else in the world. This trend will only continue.

China presently represents one of the greatest threats to the economy of the first world. As more manufacturing migrates there, the erosion of good paying jobs continues. The knowledge jobs are next, because China (and India) have gigantic and highly competitive university school systems and combine those training grounds with partnerships with all of the world's tech manufacturers, presently scrambling to set up research centres there. These two facts combine to give China an unhealthy control over both the development of products as well as the supply chains that connect to the first world. The Chinese are using the influx of foreign capital that comes iwth all of this to not only increase their competitiveness, but also to float the debt that much of the first world is currently accumulating. China holds a substantial percentage of US (and other foreign nation) government and private debt right now.

Give them 10 years and China will hold the US and other first world nations by the economic short and curiles. The one minor upside to this is that in order to look for work, illegal immigrants are going to have to find ways to get to China because many of jobs left here in North America will be the service/manual labour jobs that we presently don't want to do.
This is one of the best, and most reasoned, posts on this subject. Thanks.

To give you a somewhat related example. My parents were in the spice business. When they started their business, most of the chiles that they bought (for repackaging and selling) came from farms in Mexico and New Mexico.

By the time they sold their business the bulk of the chiles came from China. They were better quality chiles, less bugs, and cheaper to boot. That China could outdo Mexico and New Mexico inthis business is a testatment to their tenacity and to their bold approach to business. We should be very concerned.

That was a good post. I'll have to take a look at the book that you referenced. Thanks.

BENZ-LGB 06-22-2006 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
The one-child policy has resulted in unequal gender distribution. As the babies reach reproductive age there will be many males unable to find a mate. In human history, just as in the biology of all organisms, this results in increased male aggression. This will increase instability in China concomitant with the increase wealth disparity (rich folks get the mates, too) and pressure on the dictatorship for more power to the expanding middleclass.
They will come to America to look for American brides.

jlomon 06-22-2006 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroon 300D
Are Chinese Universities really that good? How come they keep sending people over here? My understanding is that the vast majority of the world's best universities are in the U.S., and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.
It is going to happen much sooner than you think, and its largely because the US Universities presently are the among best in the world. In the past when foreign students would go abroad to study at the world's best institutions they would often remain in those countries after getting their advanced degrees to take advantage of the best opportunities for work and research.

Today those same foreign students are still coming to the US (and other countries) to pursue Masters and Doctoral studies, but the difference is they are now taking that knowledge home with them as the opportunities for research are as good and in some cases better than in the coutries they got their degrees in. Microsoft, amongst other, has a huge research & development profile in China. They gain positions at Chinese universities and begin to transfer the knowledge gained at Yale, Harvard, MIT, LSE, etc to students in China. Soon enough they wont have to make the trip to the US for the coveted top-flight education.

So in addition to the jobs, China is also swallowing up the knowledge as well.

jlomon 06-22-2006 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
The one-child policy has resulted in unequal gender distribution. As the babies reach reproductive age there will be many males unable to find a mate. In human history, just as in the biology of all organisms, this results in increased male aggression. This will increase instability in China concomitant with the increase wealth disparity (rich folks get the mates, too) and pressure on the dictatorship for more power to the expanding middleclass.
There is another option, surprisingly being played out in India as we speak. It is still subject to economics, but it looks like they've managed to remove the agression/violence from the equation. Pity they can't do something for the rights of the women involved. You should have a look at this article that ran in the Toronto Star earlier this week, Bot.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1150710544961

aklim 06-22-2006 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst
The one-child policy has resulted in unequal gender distribution. As the babies reach reproductive age there will be many males unable to find a mate. In human history, just as in the biology of all organisms, this results in increased male aggression. This will increase instability in China concomitant with the increase wealth disparity (rich folks get the mates, too) and pressure on the dictatorship for more power to the expanding middleclass.
I think a lot of it is not quite right. You see, you can have more than one child but the penalties are there. So, they want boys because women are worthless. You marry the woman off and she goes to the man's side of the family, and doesn't carry on the family name. So, if I can have one child without penalty, how do I make sure it is a masculine one? Well, sometimes the female child takes a swim in a bucket. Currently there are more males than females.

Maroon 300D 06-22-2006 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlomon
There is another option, surprisingly being played out in India as we speak. It is still subject to economics, but it looks like they've managed to remove the agression/violence from the equation. Pity they can't do something for the rights of the women involved. You should have a look at this article that ran in the Toronto Star earlier this week, Bot.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1150710544961
If The Good Earth is any indication, I can see that happening in China.

WVOtoGO 06-22-2006 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aklim
Maybe to the ag industry it is a large thing. How about to the economy as a whole? In either case, the principle is the same isn't it? Where are you going to draw the line between what is illegal and what is not? Should looting in say New Orleans be legal since many are doing it?
The two industries here in the US that employ the most illegal immigrants are agricultural and construction. It’s a damn good thing these two aren’t important to our economy.:rolleyes:

I’m not trying to make a stand for something illegal. I’m not making any comments to the legality of it at all. I’m simply stating that many folks are sitting around with the simple, narrow minded attitude of: “It’s illegal!! Send them all back to Mexico and close the border tight. We’ll all be just fine here in the good old USA without them. It wont have and impact on our economy and if it did, we’d all be better off anyway because we‘ll be making it up somewhere else. I’ll be happy to pay for any increase in any costs it may induce. I can handle it.” That’s why I stated that I’d love to see a study done on it. I think most people don’t have a clue of the economic impact. I’m looking at the big picture here. Not the simple “It’s illegal, send them home.” issue. It’s too late for that. And a much bigger issue than that as well. It's not a simple figuring out of where to draw a line.

And - Everyone seems to think it’s all the Mexicans fault for coming over here. No body here seems to want to look at why it is they are coming. If you want to curve the influx. Look at why they are coming, and do something about that. Not the how. You can only build so high and tight of a wall. And if they still have a reason to, they’ll climb it when you’re done.

GottaDiesel 06-22-2006 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WVOtoGO
The two industries here in the US that employ the most illegal immigrants are agricultural and construction. It’s a damn good thing these two aren’t important to our economy.:rolleyes:

I’m not trying to make a stand for something illegal. I’m not making any comments to the legality of it at all. I’m simply stating that many folks are sitting around with the simple, narrow minded attitude of: “It’s illegal!! Send them all back to Mexico and close the border tight. We’ll all be just fine here in the good old USA without them. It wont have and impact on our economy and if it did, we’d all be better off anyway because we‘ll be making it up somewhere else. I’ll be happy to pay for any increase in any costs it may induce. I can handle it.” That’s why I stated that I’d love to see a study done on it. I think most people don’t have a clue of the economic impact. I’m looking at the big picture here. Not the simple “It’s illegal, send them home.” issue. It’s too late for that. And a much bigger issue than that as well.

And - Everyone seems to think it’s all the Mexicans fault for coming over here. No body here seems to want to look at why it is they are coming. If you want to curve the influx. Look at why they are coming, and do something about that. Not the how. You can only build so high and tight of a wall. And if they still have a reason to, they’ll climb it when you’re done.
It was illegal for Rosa Parks to sit in the front of the bus... sure am happy some folks weren't around then!

I was talking to a guy the other day, and he was anti-Mexican... he said, "Oh, the farmer will just have to buy a machine to do the job" -- yeah! Right!

A) A small farmer is going to invest in a machine to pick oranges... ok. Yeah. Right.

B) Now he has to maintain that machine... more $$$...

Some people just don't think things out beyond their own nose. Like the economists that say raising the rates is a good thing. Yeah, OK. For who?

What ever. The Bush-ites are in power right now... all the *****in' I do ain't gonna change it!

Palangi 06-22-2006 06:59 PM
God save us from the do-gooders
 
OK, So pretend that Hildabeast Klinton is president:eek: .

A hundred million Mexicans want to come here to the imperialist warmongering racist United States. Where can we put 'em all? New Joisey, perhaps?:confused:

OK, let's put 'em all in New Joisey.

Now what about a billion people from China, a billion people from India, a billion people from Africa, and a dozen people from the Tolelaus? Suppose 90% of them want to come here also. Where are we going to put them all? Pretend like New Joisey already has enough construction and agricultural workers.

OK, let's hear it......

aklim 06-22-2006 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WVOtoGO
The two industries here in the US that employ the most illegal immigrants are agricultural and construction. It’s a damn good thing these two aren’t important to our economy.:rolleyes:

I’m not trying to make a stand for something illegal. I’m not making any comments to the legality of it at all. I’m simply stating that many folks are sitting around with the simple, narrow minded attitude of: “It’s illegal!! Send them all back to Mexico and close the border tight. We’ll all be just fine here in the good old USA without them. It wont have and impact on our economy and if it did, we’d all be better off anyway because we‘ll be making it up somewhere else. I’ll be happy to pay for any increase in any costs it may induce. I can handle it.” That’s why I stated that I’d love to see a study done on it. I think most people don’t have a clue of the economic impact. I’m looking at the big picture here. Not the simple “It’s illegal, send them home.” issue. It’s too late for that. And a much bigger issue than that as well. It's not a simple figuring out of where to draw a line.

And - Everyone seems to think it’s all the Mexicans fault for coming over here. No body here seems to want to look at why it is they are coming. If you want to curve the influx. Look at why they are coming, and do something about that. Not the how. You can only build so high and tight of a wall. And if they still have a reason to, they’ll climb it when you’re done.

I suppose you are right. It is important to us so we should let it go. IOW, we should forget about anyone important because it causes inconveniences, right? So, if you are Joe nobody, we will prosecute the hell out of you. Prosecution decreases with rank. Get high enough and you can kill someone with 1000 witnesses and life is good, correct? Same principle.

Drawing the line is simple. Whether we have the stomache for making the line stick is an easy answer. We don't.

As to why they are coming, it is also simple. We are paying them more than they would back home but less than a local. Solution? Let them all come. Stop the border patrols. Hire more people to survey companies. First offense, $500K per occurence. 2nd offence, 1 mil and owner goes to jail. Third offense, liquidate the company. Liquidation of company and owner' assets occure when company cannot pay. If that doesn't stop the problem, nothing will.

BENZ-LGB 06-22-2006 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GottaDiesel
It was illegal for Rosa Parks to sit in the front of the bus... sure am happy some folks weren't around then!

I was talking to a guy the other day, and he was anti-Mexican... he said, "Oh, the farmer will just have to buy a machine to do the job" -- yeah! Right!

A) A small farmer is going to invest in a machine to pick oranges... ok. Yeah. Right.

B) Now he has to maintain that machine... more $$$...

Some people just don't think things out beyond their own nose. Like the economists that say raising the rates is a good thing. Yeah, OK. For who?

What ever. The Bush-ites are in power right now... all the *****in' I do ain't gonna change it!
Most farming nowadays is done by large agro-corps. They can afford the machines (if it comes to that).

There are no hard numbers regarding just exactly how much more expensive a head of lettuce, or a flat of strawberries will be w/o illegal farm workers.

Bush is in favor of "more open" borders. It is the Dems who have come out more hard core on this issue (maybe just to make Bush look bad).

I disagree with any economist who says, just on general principles, that higher interest rates are better for the economy. Too much "free money" (low rates) is not good. But hyper high interest rates are the death of any economy.

Botnst 06-22-2006 08:00 PM
If I remember correctly, Rosa Parks was an American citizen. Lawyers pitted the race laws against the constitution and the constitution won. The basic premise is that citizens have equal rights under the law. That was upheld.

Now let's all take a moment and acknowledge that an ILLEGAL alien is not a citizen of the United States. Therefore he has a reduced set of rights compared to a legal resident and compared to a citizen.

Went to bequeath more legal rights on illegal aliens? Let's hear'em fair and square. Got a list?

B


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