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  #16  
Old 06-02-2009, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by dynalow View Post
I don't make it a practice to use absolutes like "never".
In this case however, my gut tells me the money is "more likely than not" to never be repaid.

GM's 2007 Consolidated financials listed total assets of 149 billion. Lord knows what "New" GM will have as total assets at FMV.
They will never be able to pay it back through dividends. Let's rule that out up front.
What can GM possibly do in the long run to drive up the new stock price high enough (when it becomes available to the public to buy) to let the govt. recover its money by selling its stock to investors in the open market? I don't have any idea.
I don't think it's realistic in the near to mid term (use your own definitions) to expect GM to return to profitability. It'll take much, much longer to have earnings large enough to entice investors to buy back in, imo.
On the contrary, I wonder if the Treasury won't have to continue to prop these companies up further, bankruptcy or not.

The question is, will a 7,500 credit entice enough folks next year to buy a 2010 Chevy Volt at an expected msrp of $35-40,000? What other new cards is GM holding besides the Volt and a new retro Camaro?

I get paid to be a skeptic.I'll be interested to see going forward how GM's auditors handle the "going concern" reporting standards.
I really hope there is no more propping up of these companies. If they did it right, someone has set a stop-loss to limit the bleeding. But I think there is still room for 3 well-run car companies in the U.S. The key there is 'well-run', and history does not paint a pretty picture for these dinosaurs. If GM survives, it will be strange seeing it in the middle or bottom of the Fortune 500, instead of near the top.

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  #17  
Old 06-02-2009, 09:12 PM
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so here's my whole deal on this thing (since I started it). What nobody is really saying is that no one is buying these units. Why? the answer is many fold but my guess is that 1) Detroit built/sold junk for many years with no competition 2) Americans bought this junk as it was traditional 3) Fuel flucutuates from decade to decade and we Americans are not very smart when it comes to that type of forethinking 4) Finally, show me a 1988 Chevy Cavalier and a 1990 Pontiac station wagon still running and are worth a crap...you won't find them....I have a 1988 BMW 325iC with 172K miles on it and a 1990 300TE with 135K and I would drive either one of them to my house in New Mexico today from Chicago right this minute...they both run and look great....that's the difference...quality..and the Big 3 got themselves into this regretable position of having to sell a Ford Taurus or Chevy Cavalier or whatever for the same price as a BMW 325 or MB C320. The overhead is killing the Big 3..... no one is buying these cars because they cost too much....compared to what else you get for roughly the same amount...that's the problem....
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  #18  
Old 06-02-2009, 09:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dynalow View Post
x2

The Cimmaron! What a POS. Cavalier with a caddy badge. Right up there with the Eldorado V8-6-4 in my book. .
Let's not forget Roger Smith's attempt to turn a Chevy 350 gasser into a diesel....BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF !!!!

THe good news is that:

1. People like Roger Smith and BoB Eaton are losing 80% of their "special" pensions!!
2. People who had special executive sweetheart deals are losing that 10 years of normal inflated salary and must live on their savings and their normal pensions. Like the rest of the world.


The bad news is, in my opinion, that Lee Iacocca loses 80% of his pension.
Granted, he is wealthy, but he did two things nobody had done at the time or since:

1. He actually did work for a $1 a year for 7 years, til the debt was paid off. He did get a company car tho. It was a New Yorker lic no 722CHX, familiar to everybody because he went everywhere in it, to visit plants.

2. The first year he used his own money to buy 400,000 shares of Chrysler stock. Granted, he bought at 2.75 and sold nine years later at 35.00, so he did well. averages out to 2 million a year. Less than what other guys got and he invested his own money.

But if it all fell apart, he would have had 7.00 and a lot of paper to wallpaper the basement...

Nowadays, AIG execs would need a bonus anyway to prevent them from leaving or some sorry crud like that.

He took a risk and worked and earned it. He was not easy to get along with, and I got in front of him once when he was in an a$$chewing mood by accident, which was not pleasant.

But he did what he said he would do. And he saved a lot of jobs. For that, he deserves credit.

Capitalism in action.
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  #19  
Old 06-02-2009, 10:21 PM
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I'll tell you what they need to do...they need to make cars that the public wants. I can't speak for everybody but I think I have some pretty good ideas.

First, new engines/more options. Most of all, diesel. Most foreign car companies use smaller engines with turbos (when needed) for added power. When properly tuned can produce plenty of power and good economy. In Europe, most cars get tons of engine options...different size/power options to customize to your needs. Countersinking is also a good feature they could work on. The technology is there to make the engine run and you not feel it...much like my BMWs.

Second, rear wheel drive. My Saab has plenty of power and drives great once it is moving but damn that front wheel drive. The wheels just spin through the first 2 gears without even trying. If lazy people would take a little time and learn how to drive in bad weather, they would see that you get much better control with rear vs front wheel drive.

Third, tolerances and trim. There are a lot of trim pieces in my Saab that pop off if you look at them wrong. Others move around and there are tons of squeaks when you are driving. Also, I drove my pops car and the shifter was loose as hell...unacceptable.

Fourth, paint. I am on the phone with my wife as I am typing this and she is complaining about the paint chipping on the hood. Even my 25 year old benz has most of it's paint that looks glossier than my 6 month old Saab.

Another thing that pisses me off but not limited to GM or American cars, transmission options. Again, in Europe you can get much nicer cars with manual transmissions. They are not available in the US, that's just half assed.

My Saab was not made in the US, but they are/were owned by GM and it shows. Older Saabs don't seem to show these kind of things that I find on this. Other than things I have mentioned here, the Saab is a pretty good car. I wanted to mention that so you don't think I was complaining about that car...I have driven many and used mine as an example.
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  #20  
Old 06-02-2009, 11:07 PM
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Well, regretably SAAB is dead...and I have owned 4 of them over the years, all real SAABs (1979 to 1986 models) and then drove a 1999 9-5 for a few months....the 1999 GM SAAB was not as good/fun as the the 1986 900T but they were all not good. SAABs never really were great cars...they looked cool...but they really were not great cars.....that's my take on the SAAB....and don't even get me started on Peugeots and
Peugeots....christ......
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  #21  
Old 06-02-2009, 11:58 PM
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How do you tackle restructuring a company that has lost and is losing billions of dollars a quarter? The reality not exercised this time is you just do not. To say what is being done is a historical first in north america may be an understatement.

There is no upside to buying your way out in a situation that in all probability cannot justify the cost by any future profits if any. That senario is just does not really have any upside.

If the companies assets had been divided up there may have been some positive long term result after going into proper recievership. Although probably not but we will never know now.

I really think a lot of people do not realise general motors was and probably is finished as such. The big three have damaged themselves over time and have totally tarnished their images.

In simple terms they perished in their primary market place by their own efforts. In a way this also punishes those auto companies that tried harder to meet their customers needs and did.

To compound things further car prices will be forced to retreat soon. All other brands are getting pretty paranoid about the continuing loss of manufacturing volume. Especially the well run companies.

As production numbers drop costs rise per unit. Better to sell units cheaper in an attempt to maintain production and costs. Just in case the public return to normal buying volumes at some point...

These other manufactures will decide or have already decided to retain their market percentages whatever it takes. That leaves little room for auto companies that have lost most their market share to gain any.

Time will tell or this is just the initial indication of real problems ahead across the board in many sectors. I really suspect there may be more serious problems waiting to surface. This auto thing tends to act as a smokescreen to some extent. How many other major corporations have built debt pyramids.

We may now be starting to live through a period of major historic industrial change. Starting with continually pumping billions of taxpayers dollars into the domestic auto sector for years until the towel is thrown in.

I believe it wil be thrown in as there is too much secured debt to service even after the bankrupcy is finished. Another sixty billion comes to mind for the american taxpayer since they own 60 percent. The debt over asset value is 90 billion. I think they are in for another 110 billion as well. At a fire sale those secured assets bring little. So for 30 billion dollars the government purchased 170 billon of debt? Or is there even more?

The people holding that debt just breathed deeply. I really hope this was not what this was all about. On the otherhand I never believed it was really about the jobs or flagwaving for the domestic brands.

The overall situation was and is so bad the government probably had to act or see a real systematic collapse. What disturbs me the most is people made enormous salaries and bonus to construct this mess.

As general motors goes so goes the whole country is an old expression. I hope this does not play out in reality.

Last edited by barry123400; 06-03-2009 at 12:03 AM.
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  #22  
Old 06-03-2009, 04:25 PM
mrhills0146
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Originally Posted by cliffmac View Post
*SNIP*
Finally, show me a 1988 Chevy Cavalier and a 1990 Pontiac station wagon still running and are worth a crap...you won't find them....I have a 1988 BMW 325iC with 172K miles on it and a 1990 300TE with 135K and I would drive either one of them to my house in New Mexico today from Chicago right this minute...they both run and look great....that's the difference...quality..and the Big 3 got themselves into this regretable position of having to sell a Ford Taurus or Chevy Cavalier or whatever for the same price as a BMW 325 or MB C320. The overhead is killing the Big 3..... no one is buying these cars because they cost too much....compared to what else you get for roughly the same amount...that's the problem....
I love these comparisons. Look, I don't want to try to defend a lot of the terrible vehicles that GM put out there in the 1980s and 1990s, but there are some new GM products that have been released over the last year or so that are really good cars. I think this is the influence of Bob Lutz, but that's another story.

Of course your 1990 300TE and your 1988 325iC are better cars than a 1990 Pontiac wagon and a 1988 Cavalier! Did you ever think that the BMW and the Mercedes would have cost somewhere between three and four times as much when new?

I haven't seen too many Ford Tauruses or Chevy Cavaliers priced the same as a BMW 325 or Mercedes C320, no idea where you're going with that.
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  #23  
Old 06-03-2009, 05:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barry123400 View Post
How do you tackle restructuring a company that has lost and is losing billions of dollars a quarter? The reality not exercised this time is you just do not. To say what is being done is a historical first in north america may be an understatement.

There is no upside to buying your way out in a situation that in all probability cannot justify the cost by any future profits if any. That senario is just does not really have any upside.

If the companies assets had been divided up there may have been some positive long term result after going into proper recievership. Although probably not but we will never know now.

I really think a lot of people do not realise general motors was and probably is finished as such. The big three have damaged themselves over time and have totally tarnished their images.

In simple terms they perished in their primary market place by their own efforts. In a way this also punishes those auto companies that tried harder to meet their customers needs and did.

To compound things further car prices will be forced to retreat soon. All other brands are getting pretty paranoid about the continuing loss of manufacturing volume. Especially the well run companies.

As production numbers drop costs rise per unit. Better to sell units cheaper in an attempt to maintain production and costs. Just in case the public return to normal buying volumes at some point...

These other manufactures will decide or have already decided to retain their market percentages whatever it takes. That leaves little room for auto companies that have lost most their market share to gain any.

Time will tell or this is just the initial indication of real problems ahead across the board in many sectors. I really suspect there may be more serious problems waiting to surface. This auto thing tends to act as a smokescreen to some extent. How many other major corporations have built debt pyramids.

We may now be starting to live through a period of major historic industrial change. Starting with continually pumping billions of taxpayers dollars into the domestic auto sector for years until the towel is thrown in.

I believe it wil be thrown in as there is too much secured debt to service even after the bankrupcy is finished. Another sixty billion comes to mind for the american taxpayer since they own 60 percent. The debt over asset value is 90 billion. I think they are in for another 110 billion as well. At a fire sale those secured assets bring little. So for 30 billion dollars the government purchased 170 billon of debt? Or is there even more?

The people holding that debt just breathed deeply. I really hope this was not what this was all about. On the otherhand I never believed it was really about the jobs or flagwaving for the domestic brands.

The overall situation was and is so bad the government probably had to act or see a real systematic collapse. What disturbs me the most is people made enormous salaries and bonus to construct this mess.

As general motors goes so goes the whole country is an old expression. I hope this does not play out in reality.
The government is on the right track in demanding streamlining. GM is so fat and overloaded with dealers. They have been operating in the red for a long time, and the reason is not labor costs but costs overall. They make too many cars, which kills their resale value and their trade in value. When one's old car is worthless, one does not desire to own another one knowing that a)trading in isn't going to get you much, and b)the next car one is going to have the same problem all over again.
They'll never be what they were, but what they were wasn't sustainable anyway. That does not mean that they can't be smaller and successful, like Honda for ex.
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  #24  
Old 06-03-2009, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by mrhills0146 View Post
Of course your 1990 300TE and your 1988 325iC are better cars than a 1990 Pontiac wagon and a 1988 Cavalier! Did you ever think that the BMW and the Mercedes would have cost somewhere between three and four times as much when new?
Not in Germany. BMW and Mercedes are normal cars in most of the rest of the world. You can get these cars at very reasonable prices out there. That's one of the main reasons that I have been trying to get stationed out there.
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  #25  
Old 06-04-2009, 09:30 AM
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'Finally, show me a 1988 Chevy Cavalier and a 1990 Pontiac station wagon still running and are worth a crap...you won't find them....I have a 1988 BMW 325iC with 172K miles on it and a 1990 300TE with 135K and I would drive either one of them to my house in New Mexico today from Chicago right this minute...they both run and look great....that's the difference...quality..and the Big 3 got themselves into this regretable position of having to sell a Ford Taurus or Chevy Cavalier or whatever for the same price as a BMW 325 or MB C320. The overhead is killing the Big 3..... no one is buying these cars because they cost too much....compared to what else you get for roughly the same amount...that's the problem....'

I do see more than a few Jeep Comanches running around here. I have one. Also, older Cherokees. Some in good condition. I did see a Ford Pinto station wagon a few months back in good running shape. I also saw an AMC Pacer on the road a few years back. Looked in good shape. I also think you are looking at two different demographics. The MB and BMW owner might take better care of their cares. I would say they are better built, but at a price. Also, I think the Caddy Cimmeron was built off the Citation/Phoenix or X-body chassis and not the Cavilier. It does amaze me at the number of W123 I see around. That and how many would have been sold at their price at that time. W123's have much thicker sheet metal. Also, how many Japanese imports do you see running from that era. Some, but many have bit the dust along with their American counter parts.
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  #26  
Old 06-04-2009, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by lowriderdog37 View Post
Not in Germany. BMW and Mercedes are normal cars in most of the rest of the world. You can get these cars at very reasonable prices out there. That's one of the main reasons that I have been trying to get stationed out there.
They are not "normal" cars in most of the rest of the world. They have always been way above "normal". What American's don't seem to realise is that the reason there are so many lower spec Mercedes in other countries that don't show up in the US is not because that's what the rest of the world wants, it's because in those other countries there are a large number of horrble little pieces of crap that you'll mercifully never see in the US that are so far below what you are used to here that a base spec MB 200 with no luxuries is still considered an upmarket luxury vehicle.

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  #27  
Old 06-04-2009, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by pj67coll View Post
They are not "normal" cars in most of the rest of the world. They have always been way above "normal". What American's don't seem to realise is that the reason there are so many lower spec Mercedes in other countries that don't show up in the US is not because that's what the rest of the world wants, it's because in those other countries there are a large number of horrble little pieces of crap that you'll mercifully never see in the US that are so far below what you are used to here that a base spec MB 200 with no luxuries is still considered an upmarket luxury vehicle.

- Peter.
Also, factor in the cost of importing cars into many other countries. That tax can be near the amount of the car. So if your going to import a car, you will want to spend a bit more for something that will last. Also, the inspection laws in Germany are much stricter than hear. I hear any bit of rust and your car is totalled. Someone from Germany can comment on that. I can't remember seeing any rust on any car, when I was over there. The cost of insurance is much higher.
Also, I don't see that many of Audi Foxes or 5000s. Not so many BMW 318 or 325's. I also hear there are more Ford GT-40s around than were originally built. Also Hemi Cudas and such.
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  #28  
Old 06-05-2009, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted by pj67coll View Post
They are not "normal" cars in most of the rest of the world. They have always been way above "normal". What American's don't seem to realise is that the reason there are so many lower spec Mercedes in other countries that don't show up in the US is not because that's what the rest of the world wants, it's because in those other countries there are a large number of horrble little pieces of crap that you'll mercifully never see in the US that are so far below what you are used to here that a base spec MB 200 with no luxuries is still considered an upmarket luxury vehicle.

- Peter.
I beg to differ. The w123 was used as taxi cabs in tons of places. Some places in Africa and a few in Asia still use them. Nobody takes the best car on the road to beat up as a cab.
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  #29  
Old 06-05-2009, 07:40 AM
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Originally Posted by lowriderdog37 View Post
I beg to differ. The w123 was used as taxi cabs in tons of places. Some places in Africa and a few in Asia still use them. Nobody takes the best car on the road to beat up as a cab.
Germans have a different mind set normally than us. They will spend the money to think long term. They do this in road construction an other wise. Also, there are lesser quality car in Germany, Opel (GM) and Ford and some others. I also have a 96 Ford Contour with 214K on the odometer. I do drive it on the highway. I have driven it from IN to PA with those kinds of miles. Its still capable.
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  #30  
Old 06-05-2009, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by strelnik View Post
Let's not forget Roger Smith's attempt to turn a Chevy 350 gasser into a diesel....BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF !!!!

THe good news is that:

1. People like Roger Smith and BoB Eaton are losing 80% of their "special" pensions!!
2. People who had special executive sweetheart deals are losing that 10 years of normal inflated salary and must live on their savings and their normal pensions. Like the rest of the world.


The bad news is, in my opinion, that Lee Iacocca loses 80% of his pension.
Granted, he is wealthy, but he did two things nobody had done at the time or since:

1. He actually did work for a $1 a year for 7 years, til the debt was paid off. He did get a company car tho. It was a New Yorker lic no 722CHX, familiar to everybody because he went everywhere in it, to visit plants.

2. The first year he used his own money to buy 400,000 shares of Chrysler stock. Granted, he bought at 2.75 and sold nine years later at 35.00, so he did well. averages out to 2 million a year. Less than what other guys got and he invested his own money.

But if it all fell apart, he would have had 7.00 and a lot of paper to wallpaper the basement...

Nowadays, AIG execs would need a bonus anyway to prevent them from leaving or some sorry crud like that.

He took a risk and worked and earned it. He was not easy to get along with, and I got in front of him once when he was in an a$$chewing mood by accident, which was not pleasant.

But he did what he said he would do. And he saved a lot of jobs. For that, he deserves credit.

Capitalism in action.
He also had a way of making capitalism understood by average people. I forget the actual numbers, but in negotiating with the UAW he told them," I have 10,000 jobs for you at $15 an hour; I no jobs for you at $25 an hour." People just do not understand the relationship of wages and benefits to the cost of the product.

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