Good news on the housing front! - Page 2 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Medmech · #16 10-24-2009, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33448199/ns/business-real_estate/

Inventory is down, I am seeing this in my local market. The bottom of the market ie the 250k and down range is VERY active. Sellers are seeing multiple offers, usualy above asking!

I hope the market at least hits bottom. Price declines make my life very difficult, stabil markets are nice.

IIRC this is a repost from last year. Keep dreaming.

Hatterasguy · #17 10-24-2009, 05:07 PM

It will come back around its just going to take a few years.

Medmech · #18 10-24-2009, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

It will come back around its just going to take a few years.

If a few is 10-12 I agree. New listings are still doubling solds in most parts of the country, that coupled with much higher interest rates spells no return even with the highest numbers of growth we have ever seen. If you are young and accumulating you will likely prosper if you are young and selling I'll see you at AT&T.

Since you seem entrenched in the business you should seriously look at CCIM.

compress ignite · #19 10-24-2009, 09:09 PM

All the facts mentioned so far in this post are contributors to the RE market's
Expiration...

What No One has mentioned...
(AND No One wants to talk or think about...
are the Non-Residential Mortgage debacles yet to occur...)
[You do all realize,the same group of thieving clowns that pre-engineered the
home mortgage Tsunami, did the very same thing in the commercial mortgage
market?]
(If/When the "Other Shoe" drops [and I cannot see any way it won't]
We are in for the Financial "Nantucket Sleigh-Ride" of the last 150 years.)
(AND when it does ,you'll see common citizens chasing:
Hedge Fund Managers,Commercial Bankers,Anyone in Real Estate,All of Wall St.,Etc.,Etc. down the streets of Planet Earth with Pitchforks.)

tyl604 · #20 10-24-2009, 09:40 PM

Compress - you are correct. The commercial mortgage market is the next thing to crash. Most of us believe it will happen within the next 60-90 days, maybe sooner. FDIC expectations at the present are for 400-500 more bank failures but that could expand as the commercial loans go off the cliff.

#21 10-24-2009, 10:03 PM

I hope there is some "good news," my family and I are currently trying to sell a couple of properties to settle an estate. So far it looks pretty bleak, I'm thinking about holding on to one of them until things improve.

cheapold280ce · #22 10-24-2009, 10:09 PM

I am with you I will be putting my house on market for the thrid time next week. First time buyer lost job week before closing. Second time my HVAC went out day of closing. I am hopeful I can more now and actually close.

Medmech · #23 10-25-2009, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyl604

Compress - you are correct. The commercial mortgage market is the next thing to crash. Most of us believe it will happen within the next 60-90 days, maybe sooner. FDIC expectations at the present are for 400-500 more bank failures but that could expand as the commercial loans go off the cliff.

True, once the collateral value of commercial RE hits the threshold where its cheaper for owner/investors to let properties go back to the bank Tsunami is the perfect term, coupled with the 5 year balloons coming due its going to be a perfect storm for a collapse. I have friends who are CCIM graduates with holdings in the 100M to Billions, every single one of them share the opinion that the bottom is just beginning to fall and are positioning themselves for the worst. With the lack of small business investment, industrial, warehouse and retail growth formally economic commercial hot-spots are going to become ghost towns.

I guess the silver lining is some space is so cheap that its actually spurring growth in some areas, it a crazy world indeed.

Hatterasguy · #24 10-25-2009, 10:10 AM

Commercial is overpriced anyway. I talked to a CCIM broker 3 years ago and when I told him I was thinking about getting into the market he told me I was nuts. He said he wouldn't buy anything, just sit and wait.

Because of this next year maybe I'll be able to pick up some nice apartments at a good cap rate.

Jeff once school is paid for CCIM is next on the list.

SwampYankee · #25 10-26-2009, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Medmech

True, once the collateral value of commercial RE hits the threshold where its cheaper for owner/investors to let properties go back to the bank Tsunami is the perfect term, coupled with the 5 year balloons coming due its going to be a perfect storm for a collapse. I have friends who are CCIM graduates with holdings in the 100M to Billions, every single one of them share the opinion that the bottom is just beginning to fall and are positioning themselves for the worst. With the lack of small business investment, industrial, warehouse and retail growth formally economic commercial hot-spots are going to become ghost towns.

I guess the silver lining is some space is so cheap that its actually spurring growth in some areas, it a crazy world indeed.

The same speaker was predicting the crash of the commercial RE market back in June '08 as being about 2 years out. He reiterated that prediction last week, except that '10 is now impending.

There will be lots of opportunities. Perhaps too many.

Medmech · #26 10-26-2009, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwampYankee

The same speaker was predicting the crash of the commercial RE market back in June '08 as being about 2 years out. He reiterated that prediction last week, except that '10 is now impending.

There will be lots of opportunities. Perhaps too many.

If opportunity is defined by owning a piece of commercial property with boards in the windows I'll pass.

SwampYankee · #27 10-26-2009, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Medmech

If opportunity is defined by owning a piece of commercial property with boards in the windows I'll pass.

I won't mind sitting this one out either.

Hatterasguy · #28 10-26-2009, 12:49 PM

I don't know, if caps come around it could be interesting. My friend really knows commercial, I'd have a hard time keeping out if a good deal came my way that I could afford.

Just the boarded up windows part would kind of suck.