Two-day conf on AFG
 

I went to a USG-sponsored four-day conference, of which two days were devoted to Afghanistan. Many military there, and several controversial speakers, all reputable. Anthony Cordesman, and Ralph Peters, to name a couple. You can look them up and they will have a real rep, not one just made up on the Net.

Here's what I retained w/o consulting my notes on AFG:

1. The President made a HUGE mistake by putting a date for withdrawal down, then trying to qualify it as a maybe. The Taliban has already told various tribes: " No problemo, just wait until Dec 2011 rolls around and the crusaders go home, we'll settle up then." People are actually leaving the country because of it.

2. Al Qaeda is no longer really involved in AFG. Michael Scheuer, the former bin Laden unit leader commented, that AQ only uses AFG for transit purposes. Guess where everyone is?

3. PAKISTAN. The unincorporated agencies/regions are worse than the Wild West. The country is falling apart, not only because of the flooding, the power struggles between military and the civilian gov't , the old tribal (now business) rivalries and vendettas; but guess what? The United States ran out of extra bodies in ISAF (NATO peacekeeping), so they invited the INDIAN ARMY to help. The Indian Army, now looking at a position to encircle its mortal enemy Pakistan, said, " Sure, thanks, glad to!" This caused the PAK Army to hate us. When they hate us, they let Taliban run all over the place and move freely, because they are concentrating on the conventional enemy, which we are helping, in their eyes. BTW Pakistan has nukes :eek::eek:

4. There's also an arms race between Pakistan and India. Guess who's in line to sell to a New Economy giant like India? EVERYBODY, even the Belgians.

4. Anthony Cordesman commented that we need to quit hiring consultants to take surveys of how we are doing in AFG, when all we ask are the guys we hired and paid off, on the local economy. Guess what they think of us? They love us, because we let them distribute the cash to everyone too (one for you, fifty for me, two for you, three hundred for me...). The real locals who should be surveyed like us but hate the way we "favor" the administrators we set up in business. In a word: CORRUPTION.

Lots more, but I'll run out of room.

The bottom line: Common sense was the first victim of what could have been a short uneventful war in 2001-2002.

If common sense prevailed there would have been no invasion of Af'stan or Iraq. But it's too late now. The notion that a timeline is a mistake is a mistake. The Taliban are indigenous, they will wait us out no matter how long we waste our blood and treasure trying to dislodge them. The only force that can eliminate the Taliban is the Afghani people, and so far the Afghanis have other things to worry about.

This whole region is a can of worms. You can't fix Afghanistan without also fixing Pakistan, and you can't fix Pakistan without addressing their issues with India because Pakistan still needs the Taliban in the India border region. Good luck trying to resolve the Pakistan/India issue anytime soon.

Obama’s Doctrine of Preemptive Capitulation! Obama never intended to fight or prevail it’s not in his character!

The Marine Corp Times has an article on this in which Gen. Petraeus points out that this date is a target date and nothing more. It all depends on what is going on there at the time.

Gen. Petraeus says he understands how some people could be confused about the date and what is going to take place then. He also points out that nothing is written in stone and events then will determine what will happen next.

Very true, but General P. doesn't get to make that call. The point made was that President Obama shouldn't have floated the date in the first place as it has emboldened AQ and served to alienate those who would call themselves allies in the region.

I recently read an article about the fate of women in Afghanistan. If we walk away and AQ marches back in, it will be a real mess for many. Time will tell, I suppose. Frankly, I think the President will recognize that walking away isn't much of an option; the "you break it, you bought it" position comes to mind here.

Putting a date on withdrawal was moronic even if it was only intended for domestic ie US liberal consumption. But then of course the same goes for putting a date on "withdrawal" from Iraq or in general any conflict you are engaged in. It's simply purile Unfortunately the US appears too ignorant of the world in general to get a grip. This is unfortunate because the worst consequence of this ignorance is the bizzarre misconception that if we just leave it alone it'll leave us alone.

- Peter.

It just doesn't matter; at some point the US will leave and the country will be worse off then it was originally. It's just a matter of how much money and how many lives are wasted first. Politically, it won't happen until after the elections and well before the 2012 elections. The US should have pulled the plug years ago.

Yup. This is another gift from Bush that just keeps on giving.

For reference, the two posts immediately preceding this one are fine exemplars!

Anyone that voted for Bush bears a measure of responsibility for the mess he made of Iraq and Af'stan.

The original invasion was a mistake, the previous administrations management of the conflict was a disaster, and the current administration's decision to stay this long is also a mistake. Everyone who touched this CF is guilty of poor judgement, or worse.

I disagree with that point. The original invasion was correct. Everything after that decision was made however was I agree, a massive CF.

- Peter.

I just don't see how it could have turned out any differently, what was the end game?

If India and Pakistan were to go into an all out war it would be one damn bloody conflict (Even without nukes)

I would say that India has a significant edge in the definite arms race with Pakistan. One thing about India is there willingness to use weapons from all over the world but they they have shown a lot of ingenuity in integrating various systems. (For example, using French or indigenous avionics in Russian aircraft)


This gives India both a numerical and technological edge over Pakistan.