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-   -   the recession is over (http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/showthread.php?t=285113)

pj67coll 09-20-2010 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig (Post 2548483)

In any event, recession has a specific definition that is not related to unemployment or personal income.

Ah a dictionary definition, nothing to do with reality then.

- Peter.

pj67coll 09-20-2010 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig (Post 2548493)
I do think the US is in a "recovery" at this point, but it is slow and relatively jobless. It will be a couple/few years before employment is back to "normal" everyplace.

There is no such thing as a "jojbless recovery". The term is oxymoronic. Perhaps the "oxy" part should be left off.

- Peter.

boem 09-20-2010 08:24 PM

THANK YOU GRATE LEADER
 
A personal thanks to all involved ESPECIALY our GREAT LEADER.

After the news break today I made more money than ever thought possible.

Craig 09-20-2010 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj67coll (Post 2548525)
There is no such thing as a "jojbless recovery". The term is oxymoronic. Perhaps the "oxy" part should be left off.

- Peter.

Sure there is, that's what we are currently seeing. The stock market is doing better, businesses are starting to spend money again, and consumer spending is finally recovering. But businesses are slow to rehire employees because they are not sure it's going to last. Employment will pick up if the numbers keep locking good.

Craig 09-20-2010 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj67coll (Post 2548523)
Ah a dictionary definition, nothing to do with reality then.

- Peter.

Feel free to invent your own term for the current situation, but it ain't a recession.

Hatterasguy 09-20-2010 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig (Post 2548540)
Sure there is, that's what we are currently seeing. The stock market is doing better, businesses are starting to spend money again, and consumer spending is finally recovering. But businesses are slow to rehire employees because they are not sure it's going to last. Employment will pick up if the numbers keep locking good.

Americans like to spend. Right now a lot of them are paying down their debts and saving cash which is a good thing. But they are American's, eventually they are going to say screw it I want that 60in TV and new truck and are going to get them.

Same thing happened after WW2, people pretty much went OMG I want everything new now I went 5 years without.


Never underestimate the consumers desire for "stuff."

panZZer 09-20-2010 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj67coll (Post 2548523)
Ah a dictionary definition, nothing to do with reality then.

- Peter.

Well theres the wall street definition-that Craig is talking about--and unfortunately for the real world there is the Real definition that most people are muddling with. The Wall street meaning you would see on nightly buisness report doesn't have anything to to with whats afflicting us in the real world.

Craig 09-20-2010 08:51 PM

For good or bad, their desire for "stuff" is what will drive the recovery in the sort term. As soon as people feel confident, they will go back to buying a bunch of crap they can't afford; until the next bubble bursts.

pj67coll 09-20-2010 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig (Post 2548557)
For good or bad, their desire for "stuff" is what will drive the recovery in the sort term. As soon as people feel confident, they will go back to buying a bunch of crap they can't afford; until the next bubble bursts.

Not without money they wont.

- Peter.

Craig 09-20-2010 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by panZZer (Post 2548554)
Well theres the wall street definition-that Craig is talking about--and unfortunately for the real world there is the Real definition that most people are muddling with. The Wall street meaning you would see on nightly buisness report doesn't have anything to to with whats afflicting us in the real world.

I think that those of you who live in the "real world" need to invent your own term. I'll stick with the economists' definition of recession because it's actually something that can be measured; it doesn't mean "things suck" (now there's a new term that you can use instead).

Craig 09-20-2010 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj67coll (Post 2548561)
Not without money they wont.

- Peter.

That's what they've been doing for the last 30 years, why would they change now?

The vast majority of americans still have the same job and income that they had a couple of years ago; the only thing that changed was their confidence in keeping that job. Once people believe that the economy has hit bottom and is recovering, they will relax and go back to maxing out their VISA cards. Not very bright, but it's human nature.

pj67coll 09-20-2010 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig (Post 2548570)
That's what they've been doing for the last 30 years, why would they change now?

The vast majority of americans still have the same job and income that they had a couple of years ago; the only thing that changed was their confidence in keeping that job. Once people believe that the economy has hit bottom and is recovering, they will relax and go back to maxing out their VISA cards. Not very bright, but it's human nature.

Hopefully you're right. But it's not enough for the "vast majority" to have the same jobs they had before. The country has a far higher unemployment rate than the official figures and with that number unemployed, and without any jobs showing up in the "jobless recovery" what's left is insufficient for any meaningful improvement in economic growth. Especially as credit rules are supposed to be much tighter, and most of the "growth" of the last decade was a chimera on the backs of non existent wealth in the housing bubble, which is gone and will not return for at least a decade or two.

- Peter.

Craig 09-20-2010 09:13 PM

I hope you a right about credit rules tightening, that does need to happen to reduce/postpone the next bubble. I do have to wonder when I see all the credit card offers that my unemployed 19 year old daughter receives in the mail.

I agree that this recovery will be slow and employment will lag behind the other parts of the recovery. Businesses are being very careful, there is no way to create jobs until they believe the recovery is real. There is a chicken and egg aspect to this problem.

TylerH860 09-21-2010 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmbdiesel (Post 2548510)
All we need now, as Americans, is an enemy. Nobody climbs faster, strives harder, and accomplishes more than an American with an enemy...

How about our own government? After 3 months at work with my new business my enemy is clearly defined.

Skid Row Joe 09-21-2010 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TylerH860 (Post 2548739)
How about our own government? After 3 months at work with my new business my enemy is clearly defined.

X 2.....

Some aren't sharp enough to figure that out for themselves.


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