Actually I think the economic decline aspect is highly likely given the reality of Imperial overstretch that has become obvious of late and the next most likely scenario is the energy related one. Not so much directly affecting US transporation as the geopolitical realities of the undesireables (China, Iran, Russia etc) over what is left of traditional US allies (Europe etc).

The problem with that is two fold. First financial crises dont happen slowly, as Ferguson argues succinctly everything's fine until it isn't, then you're screwed. Second When England declined the US was able to take its place and that frankly was pretty much like continued English domination in a different package. That will not be the case with Chinese dominance in place of the US. Life will be a lot ****ter for very many more people.

You say that a lot and quite cavilierly I might add. Only problem is a, they probably won't be welcome in China, and b, they definately wont' find China a desireable place to be, welcome or not.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

I think his point is that the american public has lost interest.

I think the chimerica economy will keep chugging along for a while, the only difference might be who's the lead dog. I'm not sure the average chimerican citizen will see the difference in a big hurry. My point is that political states are becoming less relevant and economic alliances are becoming more important.

I have a standing job offer to work in china, but it does seem like a pretty big step (at least until my kids are out of the house). I'm not in a big hurry to go anyplace because I'm doing OK as is; if I thought there was an advantage for my family I would be gone in a minute. There are many other places in the world to live.

[QUOTE]

That's only true up to a point. When the US is unable to pay the banker it will be ****ed. The banker needs the client far less than the client needs the banker as the banker has other clients. There are no other bankers however.

So true. And as someone who has some experience with that I'd be very surprised if you would be able to tolerate China. Moving around in the similar first world cultures to which you are accustomed from being an American is very different from being plunged into the kind of third world hole that is most of China.

I have a cousin in Australia who spends a lot of time in China lecturing law at various locations. From his descriptions it's a place I'll avoid like the plague thank you, no matter how bad things get here.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Yawn.

__________________
2006 CL500
2009 C300 4matic
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

One of the problems with prognostications is that they generally assume that whatever is going on right now will remain constant. In reality, nothing is constant, except change, and even the rate of that changes.

__________________
1982 300SD " Wotan" ..On the road as of Jan 8, 2007 with Historic Tags

That is a very good point.

In the article, they do say "by the current trends" and "if the current trends continue"....

Anyone who has done even the simplest statistical analysis knows that a limited data set does not accurately predict subsequent outcomes.

Another iteration of "fear and trembling" from the right.

BO - - RING !

__________________
62 220sb
67 250S
72 280SE 4.5
74 280C
77 300D
82 240D
85 190E 2.3
86 300E RIP 12/28/09
85 300SD
92 300D 2.5
00 E320 Current
Over 1,000,000 miles in Benzes, Since66

....and a whole passel of BMW 2002 and Tii

How true !!
Sounds like the this guy is not only extrapolating his data !!

__________________
Grumpy Old Diesel Owners Club group

I no longer question authority, I annoy authority. More effect, less effort....

1967 230-6 auto parts car. rust bucket.
1980 300D now parts car 800k miles
1984 300D 500k miles
1987 250td 160k miles English import
2001 jeep turbo diesel 130k miles
1998 jeep tdi ~ followed me home. Needs a turbo.
1968 Ford F750 truck. 6-354 diesel conversion.
Other toys ~J.D.,Cat & GM ~ mainly earth moving

Thing about this guys article is he's a Historian, and thus his narrative is more informed than many others. Doesn't mean he's certain to be correct though. But he's not the only historian to have noticed these things and to have extrapolated similarly therefrom.

- Peter.

__________________
2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

The author is a graduate from Commielumbia and is a perfesser at the University of Wisconsin - Madison.....

Two cesspools of Marxism....

__________________
Palangi

2004 C240 Wagon 203.261 Baby Benz
2008 ML320 CDI Highway Cruiser
2006 Toyota Prius, Saving the Planet @ 48 mpg
2000 F-150, Destroying the Planet @ 20 mpg



TRUMP .......... WHITEHOUSE
HILLARY .........JAILHOUSE
BERNIE .......... NUTHOUSE
0BAMA .......... OUTHOUSE

I understand where you're coming from.

Just try to accept the plausibility for a second, its not that far-fetched.

And I am not right-affiliated.

I'm with yah..

But the ones shouting "propaganda!" aren't reading the article.


The author has addressed the hypothetical nature of this article implicitly.