Wow I wish I had your optimism.

fringe economic theory is only fringe until it happens. conspiracy theories are only conmspiracy theories until they are exposed. Sounds like investors are listening to the gold salesmen because gold has closed out the year in positive territory for the last 11 years. Coincidentaly I believe that's about the length of bull markets, so if TA is your bag, then it's time for the gold bubble to burst.

Can you explain to me how you see growth getting back to normal? Who is going to buy the stuff? The economic savy individuals that found themself underwater in their mortgage, simply quit paying the mortgage, and started buying toys with their new found wealth.

There is no such animal as a jobless recovery, because it was a loss of jobs that gives us the problem of high unemployment in the first place. Unless of course, the intended outcome is fewer jobs and higher foreclosures.

What if we get 18% interest rates like in the 80's? picture not so rosy.

I think the housing market is going to recover alot quicker then 5 years, my guess is 2-3 years, when workers start getting two raises a year to keep food on the table, the inflated, or debased dollar, will offset the drop in home prices, making a new home cost 4x that of an older one.

Long term US debt. that's a toughie higher interest rates will bankrupt the USA. devaluation of the dollar will upset China. The fed will work towards a happy median, slowly devaluing the dollar as china dumps it USD holdings. Now should China get PO'd there is no telling what they might do, but realize they will NOT do anything to hirt themselves, as IMHO they are better at the game of chess than the fed is.

Now there could be a curve ball thrown in as Dennis Kucinich winds up the pitch of his latest bill. And with Ron Paul up to bat as the finance committe chairperson, this could be a home run.

The curve ball is "the fringe economic theory" in that all the current debt is transferred to basically a new currency that congress expands at the actual rate of GDP. Since all this new currency is created by the treasury instead of private bankers the problem of never enough money to pay all the debt is gone in a heartbeat. The hyperinflation that convinced congress to pass the bill is gone overnight. The fed is gone. And the full faith and credit of the United States is re-established in it's currency.

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Yeah its way down from last year, for example brass cased 5.56 is down to $.30ish cents a round from $.50. Steel case is even less, aim was selling Wolf for $199 don't know if they still are.

The AR market is being hit the hardest since everyone and their brother is making them, a lot of the smaller manufactures are sucking wind, and the larger guys are not releasing their planned models.

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1969 280SE
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Not everywhere, but the housing market should be in pretty good shape nationally by then. Ours already seems to be in decent shape, but I think our local market only lost about 15% of it's value at the lowest point. I'm sure local unemployment will linger in some areas (e.g., detroit), but I think the national average will be considerably better in 5 years. I'm not as confident that commercial real estate will recover quickly.

I haven't bought anything in the last couple of months so I am happily surprised to hear ammo prices have gone down, although I haven't seen it in my area yet. I plan to spend a couple grand to stock up soon so maybe I'll wait and see what happens.

I rarely buy any new firearms so I'm just not in touch with that market. I much more prefer older guns- less paperwork and more steel and wood!

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1984 300TD 1981 240D

Mespe: Why are you so sure the Fed would do nothing to slow inflation,
if it started getting too high? Sure what they have been doing is inflationary
but that is only being done to avoid a 1930's cycle of deflation and depression.

Turn off youtube and get a library card.

I buy a lot so I notice it. Prices have been coming down since the spring, right now I'm shooting a lot of Federal M193 at $270ish per $900.

Surprisingly Swiss GP11 is down a bit as well.

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1969 280SE
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2007 Tiara 3200

Right now the Fed is trying to cause a bit of inflation, which is what you need to have a healthy market. Deflation is very destructive and what they are trying to avoid.

When the market starts to come back they will tighten the money supply and raise interest rates to bring it under control.

Commodities will also drop since their will be other investments, right now you have a lot of money chasing very small returns.

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2006 CL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2026 Genesis GV70
2007 Tiara 3200

I am of the camp that the fed will not be able to control rising prices. They have inflated the money supply way too much. The thing that most people don't realize is that the money supply is already inflated, it's just that the velocity of that money is 0. It is parked at the fed as excess reserves of the banks. In layman terms. billions of tax payer dollars were given to the banks to bolster their balance sheet. the money is not the banks, they borrow it at 0.25% interest and earn 2% interest from the feds (number arbitrary, but you get the gist). No one knows what will happen with the sour mortgages, they are on the banks books at 100% while they are worth maybe 20 ¢ on the dollar.

then there's the MERS/MBS mess

what I'm getting at is the fed will not be in a position to raise interest rates when they will need to, they will be too late (IMO) and when they do raise rates what about all the money uncle sam owes? the interest alone will consume the entire collection of taxes, and the government will have absolutely no money to run on.

It's a total mess, I wish you guys could convince me otherwise, but I just can't see any positive outcome in the very near future.

And I haven't even mentioned the unfunded liabilities (SS, Medicare, Medicaid), local & state pension shortfalls, State & local Bancruptcies, Banks being forced to buy-back the liar-loans bundled into MBS's that they fraudulently claimed to be triple A rated, continuing increase in the numbers unemployed, Baltic Dry Index,,,,

didn't want to add another post, but I forgot to comment on interest rates and commodities.


November 16, 1979 the "prime" used to calculate ARMs stood at 15.75%
Gold closed out in December of 1979 at over $500 per ounce. So we have both high interest rates AND high price of gold. Inflation adjusted POG is $2250, so we got a ways to go before we're even remotely in bubble territory, and the US is not a creditor nation anymore, in fact it's seriously close to banana republic status with national debt fast approaching 100% of GDP.

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This is one heck of discussion here. It seems to be apparent, the FED has "larger then life" power over our country's essential lifeline, The Dollar.

Now, in my personal opinion, you can't run a nation's economy on modern usury.

Unprofitable lending:
Modern Credit Regulation & The Lost Theory of Usury

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It's not just the greed that guides a capitalist system - it's greed + fear. The greed did get out of hand recently as investors flocked to hedge funds and risk-free CDS's, i.e. the fear element was unrealistically mitigated. Fear is good. It makes us do real research and carefully weigh opinions and facts. However too much fear keeps would be investors on the sidelines.

Its interesting that the US dollar fundamentals are now in question. If enough people believe a collapse is imminent, it would signify among other things that a better investment vehicle is available elsewhere. I haven't found it. I give this scenario a less that 5% chance of coming to pass, and my money is invested accordingly.

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1985 380SE Blue/Blue - 230,000 miles
2012 Subaru Forester 5-speed
2005 Toyota Sienna
2004 Chrysler Sebring convertible
1999 Toyota Tacoma

Fortunately, the vast majority of people and essentially all economists believe the dollar is sound and will remain sound. Aside from a fringe group, people are investing in commodities as a direct result of low returns from other investments (i.e., there is simply too much money on the sidelines). I suspect most people know that it's a commodities bubble but believe they will be able to get out in time when the music stops; we'll see how many actually pull it off. I have one friend who is still buying gold, knows it's going to crash, but believes he will be able to see it coming and get out in time. Personally, I wouldn't touch it. I suspect, that as soon as the stark market starts to move and the fed makes any move to raise interest rates, we will see a panic sell-off of commodities.

I've scraped together $50. Where should I invest it?

Is your 401k maxed out?

25% goes into my SEP...my wife's 401k is maxed.

Yep.

Just look ad 5 year CD's I did this morning 2.25%, and they want $100k. What a waste of $100k for 5 years.

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2006 CL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2026 Genesis GV70
2007 Tiara 3200