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The Importance of Negotiations
On Monday, 19 February 2007, the Financial Times talked to Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency ahead of a crucial week in the dispute over Iranīs nuclear programme.
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The Importance of Negotiations
"FT: What hopes do you have that the Iran nuclear dispute will be resolved in a reasonable time period?
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, IAEA: Iīm still quite hopeful because I donīt see any other option, quite frankly. How long will it take to convince all the parties to go back to the negotiating table is a matter of speculation. I know however for sure that even if you go for a year or two for retaliation and counter-retaliation and more sanctions it will get worse for everybody, Iran of course, but also all other parts of the international community, specifically, in the Middle East which simply cannot afford an additional escalation which would lead to militancy and increase terrorism. So if we can avoid going through this painful process, knowing that it can never resolve the issue, and try to resolve the process going back to negotiation, thatīs obviously in the interest of everybody. Both sides understand that. Both sides understand that thereīs no other way except than to go to negotiation. Itīs just a question of how to get both sides to the negotiating table while saving face. It really is about saving face...
Thereīs a lot of efforts by everybody trying to do that right now, a lot of it is really, more [of a] drafting process, more how to present a package in a balanced way and whereby the Iranians would feel that they have not lost face and the international community would feel that their requirements had been satisfied. I came up with this idea of double, simultaneous suspension, a time out.
FT: Which would be simultaneous rather than sequential?
ELBARADEI: Correct, and that would require some sort of road map to agree on that, or a timeline if you like, that Iran will take a time out from its enrichment activities as a confidence-building measure. That obviously does not impact on its right because nobody is questioning its right and this is a concern of Iran that this might compromise the right. I donīt think anybody is questioning the right, itīs about timing and modalities of implementing fully this right in light of the confidence deficit created. And the Security Council made clear that if Iran does suspend they are ready to suspend [sanctions].
FT: Although that was sequential, wasnīt it?
ELBARADEI: Yes, but really, you can say sequential a day after, it doesnīt really matter if you agree in advance how this will happen, it can be simultaneous. It can even be the same day, somebody will look at it as sequential, others can look at it as simultaneous.
As I said, it is not a major hurdle to get over that, because the stakes are just too high right now in my view to go towards a confrontation route. Sanctions were all right because the international community wanted to send a message that we are concerned and they did that, but... everybody knows that sanctions are not going to resolve the issue in and of itself.
Iranīs Failure to Comply with UN Demands
FT: People expect on Wednesday you will report that Iran has not suspended because thereīs no sign that Iran has suspended. Thatīs the clear expectation.
ELBARADEI: Yes.
FT: So after your report there will obviously more pressure from the US to push for more sanctions. Do you think that it will be ill advised to push for more sanctions at the Security Council straight away?
ELBARADEI: Obviously, short of a major change of heart, I would report that Iran has not complied with the demand of the international community to suspend. Iīm going to see Mr. Larijani tomorrow, whoīs coming to see me in Vienna. And I will continue to make a last-ditch effort to try to convince them that it is in their interest to find a way to go into negotiations. If it doesnīt happen and I donīt see that it is going to happen overnight, I will have to report negatively.
The Security Council resolution, the previous one, 1737 [agreed in December], indicated that if Iran did not comply they will take additional measures. Itīs a policy judgment, I do not want to replace myself for the Security Councilīs judgment, but I know for sure that even with additional sanctions, if they were to go for additional sanctions, they would still, in parallel, look for ways to get Iran to the negotiating table and in compliance with the concern of the international community that the programme is not a peaceful programme. Really the whole thing is about confidence-building.
Sanctions
FT: You have have real concerns about sanctions. If they begin to bite do you think they are counter-productive?
ELBARADEI: I have major concerns about relying on sanctions alone. Our experience without exception is that sanctions alone do not work and in most cases radicalise the regime and hurt the people who are not supposed to be hurt. So I have a major concern not about sanctions per se but sanctions alone. And sanctions have to be coupled at all time with incentives and a real search for a compromise based on face saving, based on respect.
I mean we always forget this word respect. A lot of the problems we face, fifty per cent at least if not more, is psychological. Substance is important, but fifty per cent of it is how you approach it, how you reach out to people, how you understand where theyīre coming from. So I will continue to say: "Yes, it is your prerogative to apply sanctions but sanctions alone will not do it and you need to invest as much in trying to find a solution through negotiation."
The rest:
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Transcripts/2007/ft190207.html
Last edited by A264172; 10-20-2007 at 01:47 PM.
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