The weather channel tropical update just said that all computer models showing it heading for another hit on Florida. Right up the middle. Apparently there is some unusal weather event that is causing all these hurricans to lose their steering currents, and then the spin of the earth sends them like a cue ball with English right into Florida. This has got to be unprecedented - there must be a lot of weakened structures there at this point.

I've read the worst ones are the ones that make it into the Gulf after passing over little land - the eye has to pass thru the gap between Jamaica and the Yucatan. Once it hits the warm open Gulf waters, they rebuild and then either hit Florida on the Gulf side or follow Camille's path.

Very well organized storm.
Its about this big:

Castro washing up on a Florida panhandle beach

I don't think I've ever seen one where the rotational characteristics were so well defined and pronounced. Thing looks like a cheese danish.

looks like I snagged a pic thats in real time. If you've got broadband, its pretty cool.

Here's a killer pic. This guy is one mean looking mofu.

Real time loop. You want to see a disaster in the making, check out the eye, which is on a bullseye path to Jamaica.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

laughing out loud at the last post! I grew up in SW LA and it was about the same, except we didn't get as many hurricanes.....

Bot, thanks for the guide. I needed a giggle.

It is absolute pandemonium down here. Just for kicks I went looking for an extra gas can this afternoon so I could store some spare juice for the generator. Not a can of any size to be had in Tampa. Nor a tarp, rope, plywood, flashlight, battery (even car battery!), bread, milk, peanut butter, and now, gasoline.

While I was out looking for a can, a rumor was circulating that they were going to ration gas, and everyone made a run for the stations. By the time I got back an hour and a half later, all stations in my area were empty. As I was happily filling up my 50mpg Jetta with Diesel, 4 people drove up and asked if this was the only gas in town.

It'll only go down hill from here.

__________________
Rick Miley
2014 Tesla Model S
2018 Tesla Model 3
2017 Nissan LEAF
Former MB: 99 E300, 86 190E 2.3, 87 300E, 80 240D, 82 204D Euro
Chain Elongation References

Man, I just saw the weirdeest thing on the weather channel. The talking head was actually asking for people to pray for the people of Jamaica. Never seen that before. They are saying the idiots who live there have not been talking this seriously, and that their attempt to evacuate 500,000 people to the otherside of the island, a safer area due to the monuntain chain that runs down the middle of island, has resulted in only 300 evacuees. There is a feeling a major humanitarian disaster may be emerging there. Also, there latest computer models are showing a direct hit on Tampa. The most likely path is along the Florida coast, finally curving in to Tampa/St. Pete.

We're still several days out so predicting where it will hit the USA is pretty premature. I've noticed a gradual westward shift in the model trajectories. Most of them are coming to agreement that the storm will stay offshore to near Appalachicola. They have expected a trough to bend it like Beckham to the East, which is why most of the model showed tracks through SFWMD and up. But instead it just keeps going West, young man. The farther west it gets before turning the more likely it will strike the upper Gulf of Mexico. One of these days a major hurrinace is gonna go up the Mississippi River to New Orleans like a beer bottle up a rectum (oops, wrong thread).

Pretty good news for you, Rick Miley. However, even if you miss hurricane force winds you're going to be on the upper-right limb of a slow-moving major hurricane--even if it doesn't hit land you're still probably going to get a hell of a lot of high-velocity rain.

I'm wondering if the God of Hurricanes hates the Magic Kingdom, or what?

Thanks, that's a really generous offer. But I'm pretty well set. The gas can adventure was mostly because I had time to kill this afternoon.

__________________
Rick Miley
2014 Tesla Model S
2018 Tesla Model 3
2017 Nissan LEAF
Former MB: 99 E300, 86 190E 2.3, 87 300E, 80 240D, 82 204D Euro
Chain Elongation References

Are there a lot of damaged buildings that are going to come apart if another one hits? It would seem to me that flying debris from damaged structures would be a threat. Also, is the damage limited to residential property or are commerical buildings also in rough shape?

First reports comingin from Jamiaca. 23 ft storm surge, reached Category 5 before it hit.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/09/10/hurricane.ivan.ap/index.html