Fear or not, this doesn't change the fact that by the most accurate assessment we have offshore oil drilling will have no positive effect for decades, and even then it will be negligible. Wake up people, this offshore drilling is nothing but stupid pandering just like the gas tax holiday was, except this time many more people are falling for it.

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Man, that calendar gets longer every time it gets pseudo-referenced. How long will it take offshore oil to get to market?

Let's assume your calendar is right. It's too bad we didn't start that drilling back in the Clinton Administration, huh?

No, you're missing the part about "insignificant impact". I think it's a complete waste and a distraction from the real solution.

__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

So you or them or whomever is saying that whether we drill or not, nothing will change? Or are they talking of one narrow aspect? I am having a hard time understanding how any oil we find and sell has no impact on our economy as far as jobs, income, etc, etc.

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

It is funny how today oil dropped to $94/bbl and they are now predicting it to head down past $75 soon... Gee amazing even with IKE once the spculator got shaken out of the market the prices are correcting themselves.

__________________
"I have no convictions ... I blow with the wind, and the prevailing wind happens to be from Vichy"

Current
Monika '74 450 SL
BrownHilda '79 280SL
FoxyCleopatra '99 Chevy Suburban
Scarlett 2014 Jeep Cherokee
Krystal 2004 Volvo S60
Gone
'74 Jeep CJ5
'97 Jeep ZJ Laredo
Rudolf ‘86 300SDL
Bruno '81 300SD
Fritzi '84 BMW
'92 Subaru
'96 Impala SS
'71 Buick GS conv
'67 GTO conv
'63 Corvair conv
'57 Nomad

I still enjoy pointing out that I predicted this drop in oil way back when everyone was freaking out. Just saying!

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2016 Corvette Stingray 2LT
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

.

And I predicted fuel prices would drop until election time.

Just like the have the last two election cycles.



.

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When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix

I hear gas is now $5 in some parts of the south. But this has to do with the interrupted refining capacity, not crude supply.

__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

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I think it's an amazing prognostication in every way. People can't predict the failure of the investment banking system or real estate worth a crap. Can't predict the oil price tomorrow or next month, but have no problem embracing a mystical belief that they know what will or will not affect prices 10 years hence. Faith is a beautiful thing!

B

You're confusing short-term specific predictions with long-term, more general predictions. There's no foreseeable way additional US drilling can affect international oil prices beyond a few percentage points because of the immensity of global oil production vs. US oil production. These numbers are really difficult to twist in anyone's favor.

__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

Okay, I'll accept your argument that long term and short term economic predictions are not equivalent, leaving aside for the moment the question of where one ends and the other begins.

I have never heard of a long-term economic prediction that was proven to be accurate. On inspection, most professional predictions are "adjusted" through time.

Economics is fundamentally unpredictable. There are far to many unplanned, unexpected, and unpredictable elements. I cannot think of any decadal interval in the past 100 years in which some expected event or invention didn't upset the prevailing expectations. I see no reason to suppose that the future wont be at least as unpredictable. To me it is arrogant to presume otherwise.

B

Are you saying that additional US drilling has the potential for significant & long-term impact on global oil prices? If so, what numbers are you basing that on?

__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL

.

The issue of drilling for oil has nothing to do with...

" long-term economic prediction "
or
" Economics "
or
" what will or will not affect prices 10 years hence ".

.
It is very simple to look at all the wells that have already been drilled.
And take the average amount of time it takes until the well produces oil.
And apply that information to any new well.
In this case, if we start today, there will probably be no well producing oil until the year 2030.
.

Then look at how much oil wells have produced in the past.
And apply that number to any new well.
Then see if this new supply will make any difference in our supply of oil.
.

.
No " prognostication "
No " embracing a mystical belief "

.


RichC

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__________________

When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix

So where was the long term general prediction to cover this financial mess? How about the next one?

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

Did you miss the part where the numbers are from the U.S. EIA ?
Not a pseudo-reference.
Or do you have a better one ?
.

Maybe you need to read the post again.
It said
" no significant impact on fuel prices "
Before, or after the year 2030, when the wells are suspected to be up and running.
.


RichC

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__________________

When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix