It seems that every month, the "experts" are " surprised" by the actions of the economy.
Why is that?
Are the "experts" just dumb?
Is economic forecasting as difficult as weather forecasting?
Should we even value their opinions?
Or are their theories just wrong?

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1982 300SD " Wotan" ..On the road as of Jan 8, 2007 with Historic Tags

I think weather forecasting is a good analogy, more unknowns than equations.

depends on who is paying them for their "predictions" or lack thereof.....

About 50 years ago I wrote a term paper in Eco class in which I said that much of Economics is based on what people expect to take place in the future. If you think the your company might lay people off and it would be impossible for you to find another job you will save your money until you feel it is safe to spend it.

I got an 'F' on this paper.

A few years ago a fellow who had been preaching this for years received a Nobel Prize in Economics. But then, who said life is fair?

Too many Econo whizzes are too tied down to the theories they have taught for years since that is all they know. What is the downside for getting it wrong for them? Usually nothing. Ain't tenure grand?

MY predictions for the next few months.....

NOTHING is going to take place as far as business investment goes until after the elections. Every business owner I speak to tells me this. Some are very intense about who should win and others don't care, but they expect changes after this election in...????? They just don't know and it is that unknown factor that keeps them from spending.

But after the elections they are going to do something since there is too much business out there that is not being made. Everyone has told me they are expecting to start hiring and expanding in about January or maybe later.

Expecting is the operative word here. They still don't know what, if anything, they will do.

But they are all planning on spending like crazy this Christmas, and for some that means giving out some serious bonus money, which will lead to more spending.

Let's check back six months from now and see if I am right. But if I am wrong then I can always find something 'unexpected' to blame it on besides the fact that I don't know what I am talking about!

And... When I say there are some business owners in Oklahoma who don't really care who wins the elections... This goes back to a saying by Will Rogers: "The US has the best form of government in the world. The worst politicians can't hurt it, and the best politicians can't help it."

If any of you took your beloved Mercedes to an expert mechanic and he replaced the head gasket, and then was surprised that it didn't fix the knocking con rod, would you keep letting him repair your car?

I guess I am "surprised" that the media keep going to the same group of experts.

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1982 300SD " Wotan" ..On the road as of Jan 8, 2007 with Historic Tags

Because economists are morons; if you're constantly "surprised" that means either (1) you made a guess and you were wrong, or (2) you made a guess that was right but you didn't think you'd be right. Either way, you're a moron.

As a business owner, I can tell you my focus is not on hiring and spending, it's on paying off debt as fast as I can and making the best out of what I have.

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- Brian


1989 500SEL Euro
1966 250SE Cabriolet
1958 BMW Isetta 600

Are we talking about real economists of the people that fill time on the idiot box? The "media" will hire anyone who is willing to fill time so they can sell soap. I don't think many real economists spend their time trying to predict what will happen next week or next month (the maximum attention span of TV viewers).

I think the economy will bust loose by the end of the year. Sure there is a lot of ambiguity about the administration, but companies are building up their war chests and a kindling point will be reached where no one will want to be left out.

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1985 380SE Blue/Blue - 230,000 miles
2012 Subaru Forester 5-speed
2005 Toyota Sienna
2004 Chrysler Sebring convertible
1999 Toyota Tacoma

Hopefully, it won't "bust loose" but begin a nice slow turn within a year, or so. Rapid moves in the economy are rarely a good thing.

Because none of them are historians.

No, just not "experts" at anything. They are theorists in a study that claims to be a science and is nothing of the sort.

Moreso. Weather obeys physical laws. Humans don't. Hari Seldon has not yet, in fact, arrived on the scene with Psycho History.

I have yet to hear of one that's worth a damm.

Yep.

- Peter.

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2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Without demand, who's going to fuel this "busting loose," and when?

At this point, looking at all the sorrowful jobs data, both layoffs and hiring - what could possibly be the demand to "bust anything loose?"

There's a strong possibility the U.S. is going to stay in a recession for years. High unemployment approaching 20% in total, is becoming the norm. Bad economic news, massive continued job losses & no new jobs creation is already the norm. Trillions of dollars in welfare/unemployment and government spending has created jacksquat, if anything hurt the economy with even more debt. No multiplying effect in the economy either.

BO will soon hatch and announce another spending stimulus scheme to try to change November - but it's waay too late to change the blood letting his party will deservedly suffer in the election.

Democrat Party leader Pelosi has stated that; "Unemployment checks are the way to create jobs." I think POS would include her in his list of morons/moronic statement makers. I know I do.

There is nothing on the horizon to pull us out of the mess caused by the housing bubble promulgated by the government, over 20 years or more.

One hope would be for the government to take over as many private industries as they can over the coming years. The government doesn't need to cut a profit, unlike the private sector to stay in business.

They could start with the entire mortgage industry, United States of America Mortgage Service, and turn all mortgage loans into 50 year loans, with very low interest rates. This would buy everyone some time, and could spur the building industry once again.

If that works, add; United States Real Estate Service. No more dealing with fancy pants real estate agents with phony smiles, and leased cars - it's now just another government run service, this time in real estate services.

In conjunction with the new government-only home mortagage business, take over all private banking in the U.S. They seem to do a good job at the Fed. Just take all banking over and give it a whirl. The private industry bankers certainly don't know what they're doing. The United States Bank of America.

The government seems to want to be in the oil business too, having jacked BP for $20,000,000,000.00, so let them take that business as well. The United States Petroleum Service of America. Those are three industries the government is just itching to take over, so I say have at it to 'em.

Economics is an interesting subject. I was once told that they can set the same questions every year in the college final exam, they just change the answers.

Weather is forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology, should be known as the Bureau of Guessahology !! Thats what they are doing.

As far as economics goes, its all about extrapolation !! and any one educated in data analysis knows that its highly unreliable.

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Grumpy Old Diesel Owners Club group

I no longer question authority, I annoy authority. More effect, less effort....

1967 230-6 auto parts car. rust bucket.
1980 300D now parts car 800k miles
1984 300D 500k miles
1987 250td 160k miles English import
2001 jeep turbo diesel 130k miles
1998 jeep tdi ~ followed me home. Needs a turbo.
1968 Ford F750 truck. 6-354 diesel conversion.
Other toys ~J.D.,Cat & GM ~ mainly earth moving

If you are watching the idiot box, you are unlikely to see an expert on anything.

Many of the so-called "experts" knew the "big one" was coming, they just didn't want to yell "FIRE" in the crowded movie theatre while everyone was watching the "Ben and Alan dog and pony show." I'm no expert, and I knew it was coming. I liquidated a business I had on LI rather than get into a new high-rent lease. On Sept 21, 2007, I transferred my IRA mutual funds into a MM account. Needless to say, I still have 100% of the principal. People like Ron Paul and Peter Schiff also knew it was coming, but were roundly scoffed by the Fox News pundits who in 2007 predicted "real estate would go up another 10%, and the Dow would be 16,000.

As you said earlier, everyone is sitting on the sidelines with tons of cash. In the mean time there is a pent up demand for new goods and services. Quarterly business reports are showing excellent results, and lets face it, you can't have a recovery without the fat cats doing well first. Right now they are doing much better, but to be sure they will wait another quarter or 2 to see if it was a fluke.

You are over blowing the government involvement. Everybody want out from government control for obvious reasons, and they have a method of doing so when they prove to be viable.

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1985 380SE Blue/Blue - 230,000 miles
2012 Subaru Forester 5-speed
2005 Toyota Sienna
2004 Chrysler Sebring convertible
1999 Toyota Tacoma