What is ya'lls take on peak oil?

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I found it pretty hard to read

Will we finally get a chance to go back to living like the Native American Indian? They did not have any Wal Marts?

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Jim

Jim, check out www.hubbertpeak.com for a less alarmist perspective. There's a difference between peaking and running out. Prices will definitely rise with Asian demand, but we won't run out of oil while our diesels are still worth rebuilding.

I'd be more concerned about natural gas, which is a closed loop system in North America (currently only four LNG terminals for imports, and virtually impossible to get new ones built). US gas reservoirs are well past peak production, Canadian ones not far behind with increasing diversion to producing oil from domestic tar sands (vs. increasing exports to the US). In the face of declining US production, virtually every new power plant in the last decade is fuelled by gas, along with heat in most new homes. Gas prices spiked in 2002-3, and they're not likely to retreat much going forward.

engawork,

you beat me as I was going to ask the very same question.

I read the site ad was instantly mesmerized with the gloom/doom predictions.

It seems that after the Enron scandal, that all the major oil companies are reporting that their reserves are not what they had claimed. It seems some of the CEO's don't want to go to jail.

What is amazing to me is that hardly anyone stops to think of if/when we run out of oil.

My wife's uncle is a Canadian and he tells me that Canada has tremendous amounts of oil, surpassing even the middle east.

He adds, that the reason they buy it from the middle east is that it is much cheaper than drilling for it in Canada. I don't remember the figures exactly but he mentioned that Canada could produce a barrel of oil for appox 28 dollars, while the middle east produces it for a lot less.

Assuming this to be true, I would imagine that we will continue sucking the middle east dry, then we will be faced with much higher oil prices when we have to buy Canadian oil.

What I would imagine happening over the next 20 years or so is continued price increases as a result of dwindling supplies of "cheap oil", which will change the way some of us think regarding our love for SUV's and other gas guzzlers.

Imagine some poor shmuck filling up an expedition if gas were to hit $3.00 a gallon? "That'll be $90.00 please"

Talk about a major lifestyle change.

I could see it affecting the econmy of this country in a devastating way.

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Enough about me, how are you doing?

We will never run out of oil because as supply decreases price will increase proportionatly.

The real question is what can we do now to keep oil cheap for as long possible?

bump. Very good topic.

Largely ignored by 90% of the population.

Thoughts?

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Enough about me, how are you doing?

I'm waiting to hear more feedback from the more argumentative types on this board, but I do have the impression that he's a bit alarmist. HOwever, even if his site's half-true, that's pretty scary IMHO...

All the more reason to run biodiesel, eh?

It is kinda strange that there have been so few responses/thoughts shared on this subject.

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Jim

As Koop says market pressures will address much of this issue.

As the price of oil increases the relative value of hybrid vehicles, alternative fuel research, improved oil extraction techniques will increase proportionately. While we see improvements in these areas today they are small because right now oil is cheap enough that they haven't achieved "critical mass."

I'm honestly not very concerned. I'll enjoy watching the owner's of Expeditions and H2's pay $100 at the tanks. The SUV craze IMO is getting out of hand. An H2 to bring the kids to soccer practice is ridiculous.

I brought this very topic up to my wife last night and it never would have entered her mind. Like most folks I guess.

I try to conserve as much as possible when it comes to resources. It's just my little way of helping out.

I guess that would be the first place for us to start. I do not believe that the majority of the population will jump onboard if/when we see dramatic fuel increases. Cheap oil equals ignorance. The only way people will start to care is when itt hurts their wallet.

.02

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Enough about me, how are you doing?

I think the thrust of his arguement is right. In the long run we are screwed. But his dismissal of alt energy is wrong. We shouldn't be looking at solar, wind nuke as a replacement but rather a supplement. And we should be doing now instead of waiting for the well to run dry.

I think we should be looking at the Europeans. They have cool, fuel efficient cars and use diesel very effectively. Instead of driving suburbans they drive hatchbacks and station wagons. There are local markets near where people live and they don't live in the McMansions we like so much. France gets 80% of its electricity from nukes.

In addition to being more efficient, it just seems like a more sane way to live. It just amazes me the number of people that make good money (80k+) that are broke after their mortgage payments and two car payments and credit card payments.

I know of a few people like that. One has an Expedition, his wife drives a Tahoe. With recent gas increases they have really felt it in the pocketbook. There is no need to driving those things if you can't afford it/them.

You figure the payment on an Expedtion is around $500.00 per month. You'd spend around that for fuel(400-500) and another 150.00 per insurance.

That's appox 1200.00 monthly. WOW. I can afford to do something like that, but I'd kick myself in the head everytime I filled up at the pump.

It's insane.

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Enough about me, how are you doing?

Remember how popular “The Whole Earth Catalogue Was”? Well, a lot of folks around here live off the grid. Part of the ability to do this is because of modern technology. I for one, survive by a satellite hookup to the Internet, so that where exactly I am, no longer matters. I’m very established in my business, so that being in a city is not necessary. I think my situation describes more and more people. I also know quite a few people that live very efficiently on boats.
Obviously everyone did without 150 years ago, but for a modern world to turn back the clock would be difficult. There’s a lot to consider – basically you’ve got learn how to love what you’ve got, and break away from wanting to consume everything that advertisers market to you as necessary. How this or many other facts of life will play out in the big cities is what really makes it seem so scary. As I used to say in seminars – “If you love your kids you’d better be prepared. If you don’t intend to shoot em, you’d better be ready to feed them, cause they’re coming home.”

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89 300E
79 240D
72 Westy
63 Bug sunroof
85 Jeep CJ7
86 Chevy 6.2l diesel PU

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
Marcus Aurelius

Great topic!!

Another reason we'll never really run out of oil is that it will eventually get to the point that it's too thick to be commercially worth pulling out of the ground. At that point we'll be "out" of oil, but technically, there will always be oil. (Anal enough?)

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Current:
2014 VW Tiguan SEL 4Motion 43,000 miles.

2016 Hyundai Santa Fe Sport (wife's).

Past:
2006 Jetta TDI 135,970 miles. Sold Nov. '13.
1995 E-320 Special Edition. 220,200 miles. Sold Sept. '07.
1987 190-E 16 valve. 153,000 miles. Sold Feb. '06.
1980 300-D 225,000 miles. Donated to the National Kidney Foundation.
1980 240-D manual, 297,500 miles. Totaled by inattentive driver.

It is going to be hard on us old "car guys" but I don't expect to see the worst of it unless I make it to around 90 after which time my mode of transportation will probably be a wheelchair or walker.

Anyway, I have just recently started getting around for those quick jaunts to the store on the 1994 Yamaha Jog. It is alot of fun and all the women that I pass by are smiling at me (or are they laughing)? Anyway, I filled it up the other day after about three days of running errands on it and it took .67 gallons. It is probably the most "fun" ride I have.

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Jim

OK. Now that we are " out of oil" what do you suppose would happen then?

No matter how expensive it gets, it will be pulled out of the ground somehow(if it;s still there). This country will be reduced to nothing without petroleum. The questaion will be, who can/will afford to pay for it?

Those who can't will be in a world of hurt.

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Enough about me, how are you doing?