1. OPEC cut crude production by 750,000 bpd last fall in response to “low” oil prices. They’ve raised quotas by 500,000 for October. It is yet to be seen if they can actually achieve this. Early reports from Oil Intel, who counts tankers leaving OPEC ports, says there has been no increase in production.
2. Historically OPEC has not been able to control its members when oil prices are high. Rampant quota cheating is always seen as the oil price rises. Why, in the granddaddy of all oil price spikes, would this time be any different? IMHO, every OPEC member is producing at 100% except for Saudi Arabia which has maybe 500,000 bpd spare capacity.

Cantarell, the #2 oil field in the world is declining 10+% per year. The North Sea oil fields are declining at 10% per year. The production decline will accelerate into the future. We will see gas stations running out of fuel and/or govt fuel rationing within 3 years.

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1982 300TD 279K.
1984 190D 5sp 265K